Uzbekistan's annual inflation rate declined to 6.4% in September 2026, while core inflation stood at 5.5%, according to the Central Bank. The figures were announced by Zarina Nurberdiyeva, Head of the Public Relations and Communication Policy Department at the Central Bank, during a briefing on October 21.
According to Nurberdiyeva, inflation in Uzbekistan continues to follow a downward trend. In September, annual inflation reached 6.4%, while core inflation, which excludes certain volatile price components, stood at 5.5%. However, the Central Bank noted that the share of goods and services experiencing annual price increases exceeding 5% has grown, indicating that inflationary pressures remain in the economy.
Inflationary expectations among households and businesses have also declined, although at a slower pace than headline inflation. According to the regulator, this difference indicates the continued influence of inflationary inertia on price-setting processes. The Central Bank identified several factors contributing to the growth of aggregate demand in Uzbekistan.
These include increased investment activity, rising household incomes, higher remittance inflows, substantial budget expenditures and rapid growth in non-gold exports. At the same time, the regulator reported signs of stabilization in certain components of demand over recent months. In particular, lending growth has been gradually approaching what the Central Bank describes as an optimal level.
Positive real interest rates have also supported the population's willingness to save. Despite the decline in inflation, the Central Bank warned that several external and domestic factors could continue to exert upward pressure on prices. Among the external risks are high global prices for raw materials, food and energy.
According to the regulator, these factors could affect domestic inflation through higher import costs and transportation and logistics expenses. Meanwhile, the real effective exchange rate of the Uzbek soum has strengthened over the year, partly reflecting currency depreciation in several major trading partner countries.
The Central Bank noted that this development helps reduce inflationary pressures associated with imported goods. Domestic risks include the ongoing liberalization of regulated prices. The regulator warned that adjustments to regulated prices could increase production costs and service prices, creating additional inflationary pressure.
The Central Bank considers it necessary to maintain tight monetary conditions to contain inflationary risks and support a continued decline in inflationary expectations. The regulator stated that monetary policy will remain focused on achieving its medium-term inflation objective. Uzbekistan's Central Bank aims to reduce annual inflation to 5% by the end of 2027.
Earlier, in April 2026, Uzbekistan's annual inflation rate declined to 7%, marking its lowest level in ten years at that time. The Central Bank had previously projected that inflation would reach 6.5% by the end of 2026. The September reading of 6.4% places annual inflation slightly below that earlier year-end projection.