New NFL Data Reveals Massive Advantage for Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions entered their bye week with a 3-2 record and plenty of work to do in the NFC North race. But a fascinating new statistical breakdown suggests Detroit could have a significant advantage over both the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings during the remainder of the 2026 season.

And it’s not a small advantage.

According to an October 13 graphic shared by GridironInfo, using data from nflverse, the Lions have the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL, based on average offensive Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play).

Meanwhile, the Vikings and Packers sit at the opposite end of the rankings.

For a Detroit defense that has battled injuries and inconsistency, that could make a meaningful difference in the race for the NFC North crown.

Lions Have NFL’s Easiest Remaining Offensive Schedule

The graphic measures the average offensive EPA/play of each team’s remaining opponents. A higher number indicates opponents that have generally been more efficient offensively, while a lower number points to less productive attacks.

Here is how the NFC North stacks up entering Week 6:

That’s a remarkable difference.

Minnesota faces the league’s toughest remaining collection of offenses by this metric, with Green Bay right behind. Chicago also has a challenging road ahead, while Detroit sits dead last in the rankings.

Put another way, the average offense remaining on Detroit’s schedule has been significantly less efficient than those awaiting its three division rivals.

This doesn’t automatically mean the Lions have the easiest overall schedule, because the numbers do not account for opposing defenses, future injuries, or changes in team performance. However, it does suggest Detroit’s defense could have more favorable matchups than its competitors over the final 12 games.

And given what we’ve seen from the Lions through five games, that is particularly encouraging.

Why This Could Change the NFC North Race

Detroit enters the bye week two games behind undefeated Minnesota, while Green Bay and Chicago also sit at 3-2. The Lions have plenty of ground to make up, but their remaining schedule creates an interesting opportunity.

According to the official NFL standings, Minnesota is 5-0, while Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago are all 3-2.

The Lions also have six games remaining against division opponents, including home matchups with Green Bay on October 25 and Minnesota on November 1.

Those games could dramatically alter the standings before Thanksgiving.

Detroit’s remaining schedule also includes games against Miami, New England, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Tennessee, and the New York Giants. While none should be considered an automatic victory, several of those matchups could give Detroit’s defense opportunities to build confidence and consistency.

The full 2026 Lions schedule also reveals a difficult closing stretch featuring road games against Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay.

That creates an important distinction: Detroit’s schedule may be favorable statistically, but the Lions will still have to win critical head-to-head games to take advantage.

Detroit’s Defense Could Be the Biggest Beneficiary

The most encouraging aspect of these numbers is what they could mean for defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard.

Detroit has struggled against opposing passing attacks during the opening month, particularly while dealing with injuries throughout the secondary. However, the Lions showed significant improvement during Sunday’s 45-21 victory over Arizona.

As we recently highlighted, the Lions’ pass rush accomplished something never before done in franchise history, recording 20 sacks through the first five games.

Getting Brian Branch back could provide another major boost. We previously reported that Detroit is targeting its matchup against Green Bay for Branch’s potential return, giving the secondary a chance to become healthier as the divisional schedule begins.

Combine a potentially improved defense with a favorable slate of opposing offenses, and Detroit could be positioned to put together a significant winning streak.

Of course, the Lions still need to improve their execution and avoid the defensive breakdowns that have hurt them early in the season.

The Lions Have a Real Opportunity

There is one reason Detroit fans shouldn’t start celebrating just yet: Minnesota is already 5-0, and the Vikings have shown they can win games in different ways.

A favorable schedule doesn’t erase a two-game deficit, particularly with six divisional matchups still ahead.

But the numbers do offer legitimate encouragement.

While Minnesota and Green Bay prepare to face some of the NFL’s most efficient offenses, Detroit’s defense will encounter the league’s least productive remaining group by this particular measure.

That could translate into fewer points allowed, better field position, and more opportunities for Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and the Lions’ offense to take control of games.

The NFC North isn’t going to be handed to Detroit, but this new data suggests the Lions could have a much better path back to the top than their current record indicates.