The deal, which involves suspending fuel export sanctions on Russia for six months to allow for diesel sales at market prices, will be a welcome boon for a Russian economy that is creaking under the strain of a war in Ukraine that has dragged on far longer than anticipated.
But for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s strongman president, the real benefit isn’t the billions of dollars in fresh revenue. It is the wedge this deal, and the rhetoric around it, drives right through the heart of the Western alliance, which has aimed to isolate Moscow over its war in Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump spelled out the new and extraordinary reality in stark terms as he mocked the angry reaction of Ukraine’s wartime leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, who derided the deal as a “weak decision by a strong partner” that provides “extra money for this war.”
“We said you can do whatever you want to Russia. Don’t hit the refineries because that’s a world problem that’s caused and he wants to make problems for the world. He wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers,” Trump said before calling for a new Ukrainian leader, essentially blaming high global fuel prices, especially acute in the United States, on Ukraine.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney sided with Zelensky as the two leaders spoke on Sunday, saying that the agreement stands “in direct opposition to the efforts of Ukraine, Canada, and our allies to create peace and stability in Europe.”
In recent months, relentless Ukrainian drone strikes, flying deep into Russian territory with terrifying precision, have systematically crippled oil refineries that serve as both the economic engine and the fuel tank for Russia’s military.
Amid domestic fuel shortages and severe production cuts, the Kremlin suspended all diesel exports this month so that it had enough for its own needs — a stunning setback for a country that used to be the second-biggest diesel exporter in the world before the Ukraine war.
Whether Russia can actually provide the promised diesel or not, by framing the Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries as an assault on American interests, Washington is effectively aligning its economic priorities with Moscow’s survival — even as analysts have suggested the deal is unlikely to dramatically move the needle on diesel prices.
The US has powerful levers it can pull to get Ukraine to play ball.
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Washington no longer provides money and weapons to Kyiv. But vital American intelligence sharing — the digital backbone of Ukrainian defense — risks being cut off if Ukraine now continues to strike at the Russian infrastructure Trump wants left untouched. The threat is real — the US did just that in the wake of the notorious Oval Office blowup last year.
Mindful of the risk , Zelensky has indicated he is willing to cooperate, but only if Russia does the same. “Ukraine will be ready to stop striking Russian oil refineries if Russia stops striking our energy infrastructure,” Zelensky said in a recent statement.
For Ukraine, this entire episode may seem like yet another bitter, existential betrayal by an American leader who has at times acknowledged a begrudging respect for Kyiv’s bold military tactics. Now, its most effective asymmetric weapon — relentless drone strikes on oil refineries — is being undermined and may be neutralized, not by Russian anti-air batteries, but by American diplomatic pressure along with Trump’s irrepressible urge to do a deal with the Kremlin.
In Moscow, on the other hand, the mood is upbeat.
“The Russian side confirmed its willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the US market and global markets at large,” Putin said in an official statement after a prearranged telephone call with Trump on Friday night.
“I am convinced this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy,” he added.
Privately, the Kremlin leader must be rubbing his hands with glee.
Both he and Trump want Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries to immediately stop.
Both want Ukraine’s president to be replaced with someone who will agree a quick deal.
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And just a few weeks after Trump signed a bill into law, sponsored by the late US Senator Lindsey Graham, allowing for punishing sanctions to be imposed on any country that bought Russian oil, Washington has now become a customer itself.
All at once, it seems, a battered but relatively unified Western front that has stood against resource-rich Moscow for more than four years looks like it is being dealt another powerful blow.
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