(News Focus) What's next for Trump's Korea policy after U.S. midterms? Experts assess alliance friction, N.K. diplomacy

By Chang Dong-woo

WASHINGTON, Oct. 24 (Yonhap) -- The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are unlikely to fundamentally alter Washington's approach toward its alliance with South Korea, but could affect President Donald Trump's demands on Seoul over security and trade, as well as his pursuit of renewed diplomacy with North Korea, according to Korean affairs experts.

In email interviews with Yonhap News Agency, the Washington-based experts generally anticipated continuity in U.S. policy toward the Korean Peninsula regardless of the election outcome, while pointing to potential changes in congressional oversight, bilateral economic relations and Trump's incentives to seek a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Ellen Kim, a senior fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), said the election outcome would likely have limited effects on U.S.-South Korea relations, although Democratic gains could bring greater scrutiny of the Trump administration's policies.

"The election outcome will likely have limited effects on U.S.-ROK bilateral issues," she said, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.

"A Democratic victory could lead to greater congressional scrutiny and oversight of Trump administration policies, such as tariffs and security matters including U.S.-South Korea civil nuclear cooperation and nuclear-powered submarines," Kim added.

Robert Rapson, former acting U.S. ambassador to Seoul, warned that the alliance could continue to experience difficulties stemming from Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy, regardless of the election outcome.

"This likely means even more 'turbulence' for the U.S.-ROK alliance," Rapson said, adding that the growing range of bilateral issues underscored the need for careful diplomacy by both governments.

Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Republican losses could constrain Trump through congressional oversight, legislation and budget decisions, but would be unlikely to produce a sharp change in Washington's Korea policy.

Yeo noted tariffs, defense burden-sharing, intelligence frictions and coordination on Middle East policy as potential sources of strain in the alliance, noting that developments would depend heavily on decisions by Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.

South Korea and the United States have faced signs of friction in the intelligence field following Seoul Unification Minister Chung Dong-young's public disclosure in March of a North Korean uranium enrichment facility in Kusong, North Korea.

Yeo also cautioned against potential U.S. policy decisions that could sideline Seoul in diplomacy with Pyongyang or affect military exercises and force posture in ways that could weaken deterrence.

Scott Snyder, president and chief executive officer (CEO) of KEI, said the election results would be less consequential for the alliance than Seoul's ability to align its priorities with Trump's agenda and secure his attention amid competing international crises.

"How Korea catches the time and attention of the president will be the most critical factor shaping outcomes for the U.S.-Korea relationship," Snyder said.

On trade and investment, Yeo said Republican losses could soften Trump's investment demands on South Korea, while a Republican victory could embolden him to seek additional South Korean investment in the U.S. semiconductor industry.

Kim said substantial trade authority rests with the executive branch, making it difficult for Congress to reverse the administration's tariff policies, even if Democrats gain control of one or both chambers.

She noted that congressional efforts to challenge Trump's tariffs through legislation could face the hurdle of securing enough votes to override a presidential veto.

Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, offered a somewhat different assessment, suggesting that Democratic control of Congress could help stabilize the alliance and encourage Trump to follow through on bilateral investment initiatives.

"Democratic control of Congress should stabilize the alliance and encourage President Trump to follow through on one aspect of the alliance where he can declare success: attracting historic investment in energy, shipbuilding and other sectors," Cronin said.

On North Korea, some experts suggested that the election results could influence Trump's incentives to revive diplomacy with Kim Jong-un, although they emphasized that the prospects for meaningful negotiations would depend largely on Pyongyang's willingness to engage.

Kim of KEI said Republican losses could prompt Trump to seek more foreign policy achievements, potentially increasing his interest in renewed engagement with North Korea.

"The midterm election loss could prompt President Trump to seek a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea even more eagerly," she said.

She added that Pyongyang would closely assess whether Washington was prepared to make concessions to facilitate negotiations.

Rapson said Trump's interest in resolving unfinished diplomatic business with North Korea would likely persist regardless of the election outcome, barring major political turmoil. He also anticipated Trump's continued interest in a summit with Kim into 2027, even if the two leaders fail to meet during Trump's Asia trip next month.

Yeo said the midterm results would have little bearing on whether another Trump-Kim summit materializes, noting that the North Korean leader's assessment of the timing would be crucial to any resumption of dialogue.

Cronin said a change in congressional control could encourage Trump to focus more on foreign policy, while increasing legislative scrutiny, potentially limiting his room to make major concessions in negotiations with Pyongyang.

"So, while President Trump may succeed in resuming summit-level talks with Kim Jong-un, he will likely find his room for serious policy constrained," Cronin said. "For instance, reducing U.S. sanctions or withdrawing U.S. forces in South Korea would be easier said than done."

odissy@yna.co.kr
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