Did Saudi Arabia walk into the Houthi trap?

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On July 13, an Iranian civilian aircraft carrying a high-level Houthi delegation was heading towards Sana’a, Yemen’s capital. Under an unwritten understanding between the Houthis (Ansar Allah), who control northern and northwestern Yemen, including Sana’a, and the country’s Saudi-backed government, planes seeking to land in Houthi-held territory were required to obtain prior approval. The Houthi delegation had left Yemen on July 3 on another Iranian aircraft to attend the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader who was assassinated by the U.S. and Israel on February 28 when they launched their war against Tehran.

Yemen’s Saudi-backed government had protested the Iranian plane transporting Houthi leaders, arguing it was a violation of Yemen’s sovereignty. It also opposed the delegation taking an Iranian plane back home, and instead offered to facilitate their return on a non-Iranian airline. The government’s main concern was that the flight could also be used to transport personnel of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military equipment to Yemen. The Houthis, nevertheless, chose to return on a Mahan Air flight. To prevent the aircraft from landing, Saudi-backed forces bombed the runway of Sana’a airport, forcing the plane to land in Hodeidah. This was the trigger.

The Houthis immediately announced that the ceasefire was over. They started attacking Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure with drones and missiles, and announced a blockade on Saudi ships in the Red Sea, while also launching a ground offensive against the forces of the Saudi-backed government in Yemen. By mid-September, the Houthis captured Yemen’s entire Red Sea coast and an island in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, tightening their control of the chokepoint connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Saudi Arabia retaliated by carrying out large-scale air strikes on Houthi positions. But such strikes did not have any meaningful impact on the Houthi behaviour. The Houthis stepped up their attacks on Saudi oil facilities and airports, including the international airport in Riyadh, forcing the authorities to suspend operations on Saturday.   

The war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has complicated the larger conflict between Iran and the U.S. The Houthis are Iran’s close regional allies. While the U.S. is trying to force Iran to accept its terms for a deal through economic coercion, the Houthis are adding more pressure on global energy prices through their attacks on Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest energy producer. This new dynamic seems to have strengthened Iran’s position in the conflict. While Saudi Arabia is getting military assistance from the U.S., President Donald Trump is wary of joining the war. Last year, U.S. forces bombed the Houthis for seven weeks, but then ended the operation without any major progress as the Houthis kept attacking the U.S. navy. In other words, Saudi Arabia faces few good options. Its ability to export oil has been curtailed; it’s not able to prevent the Houthis from targeting the kingdom; defeating the Houthis militarily is not an option and a direct American involvement is unlikely. 

To understand the rise of the Houthis, read this profile we published a few weeks ago: The Houthis vs Saudi Arabia | The new lords of the Red Sea

Further, in this episode of Global Faultlines podcast, we discuss Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, and the rise of the Houthis in detail. The Houthis, who emerged as a Zaydi revivalist movement, gained momentum during the Arab Spring protests. They captured Sana’a, Yemen’s capital in 2014. In 2015, a few months after Salman ascended the throne in Saudi Arabia, his youngest son and the new Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman declared war against the Houthis promising to sack them from Sana’a. That war is not yet over. For Prince Mohammed, now the Crown Prince of the kingdom, the war with the Houthis has become the greatest security test of his de facto reign.

The Trump-Putin deal 

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a deal with Russia to buy Russian diesel. He said Moscow would release 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately “to the American and global marketplace”, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and a further one million after that. As part of the agreement, the U.S. Treasury has suspended sanctions on Russian diesel exports until April 7. This marked a sharp U-turn in the U.S. policy, which had imposed biting sanctions on Russia to weaken its economy. President Vladimir Putin, who has imposed a ban on diesel exports, said Russia was ready to supply diesel to the U.S. and the global economy. Mr. Trump is under pressure at home amid high fuel prices, mainly because of the supply disruptions brought by his war on Iran. His plan is to bring Russian diesel into the market, hoping that it would reduce the prices and ease some pressure on him as the U.S. is going to the midterm polls early next year. 

But Mr. Trump’s move comes with several ironies. Last year, he had imposed 25% additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. Just last month, the U.S. Congress passed a Bill authorising the President to impose up to 100% tariffs on countries buying fuel from Russia, including India and China. Mr. Trump has signed that Bill into law. Now the same Mr. Trump has struck a deal with Mr. Putin to buy Russian diesel.

Beyond the inherent contradiction of the latest U.S. policy, the Trump U-turn also points to the ineffectiveness of the western sanctions regime. The U.S. and Europe were on the same page until recently on strangulating the Russian economy through sanctions. Now, Mr. Trump is parting ways, weakening the European efforts to maintain economic pressure on Moscow. Two, the U.S.-Russia deal would make it extremely difficult for Ukraine, which is dependent on the U.S. for weapons supply, to continue to attack Russian oil refineries. Mr. Trump has already started escalating his pressure tactics on Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, asking Kyiv to stop attacks on Russia’s energy sites. Ukraine and its partners in Europe are scrambling ways to deal with the latest Trump move at a time when Mr. Putin is stepping up his strikes on Ukraine and testing the resolve of NATO.