As we enter the tail end of the 2026 College Football season, the Clemson Tigers sit with a 4-2 overall record and 2-1 in the ACC, needing just two more wins to become bowl-eligible.
That said, it’s time to take a look at the updated bowl projections for the program, as a good bit has changed since we last looked them over after the Tigers’ Week 3 win over North Carolina.
Note: Head coach Dabo Swinney and the Tigers have been bowl-eligible for the past 21 consecutive seasons, which is the fourth-longest streak among FBS programs.
ESPN
The last time we checked in on where ESPN analysts Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura had Clemson landing this bowl season, each had a different projection: Schlabach chose the Old El Paso Sun Bowl, and Bonagura chose the Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl.
Ahead of Week 8, though, both aligned on the same selection for the first time this season: the Old El Paso Sun Bowl. The contest is set for Dec. 31 at 2:00 p.m. ET at the Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas.
While both have the Tigers playing in the same bowl game, they don’t agree on who they’ll be facing: Schlabach has them going against Washington, while Bonagura has them matching up with No. 25 Arizona.
It would be a first for Clemson and Swinney on both fronts, as they’ve never appeared in the Old El Paso Sun Bowl or met Washington/Arizona. However, with the program’s season going the way it is and the bowl game featuring an ACC school and a Pac-12 school (or a Pac-12 legacy/affiliate school), it’s not far-fetched whatsoever.
As it stands, ESPN’s FPI projects the Tigers to earn three more wins over the next six contests, finishing with a 7-5 overall record for the season. They have an 88.1% chance of hitting the six-win mark and a 1.5% chance of winning out.
CBS Sports
After sending Clemson to the Military Bowl last week, just as Bonagura did, CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford released his updated projections Sunday afternoon and made a similar switch, moving the Tigers to the Sun Bowl to face Washington.
As mentioned, the Tigers have yet to play in the Sun Bowl or face the Huskies, but it would make for an interesting matchup. Both programs have fallen well short of expectations so far, as Washington sits at 4-3 heading into Week 8 and has similarly struggled against ranked teams, losing two of its past three to No. 20 Iowa and No. 18 USC.
Washington also has a quarterback controversy of its own, much like Clemson’s at the start of the year, as junior Demond Williams Jr. has given way to fellow junior Elijah Brown over the past two weeks.
Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer also has Clemson in the Sun Bowl on New Year’s Eve, but he pairs the Tigers with their toughest projected opponent yet: No. 10 Utah.
The program has struggled to keep up with top-ranked teams all season, with its two losses coming against No. 1 Miami and No. 18 LSU, and I don’t think that will change, especially given how the Utes have been performing in 2026.
The Big 12 program is currently undefeated and first in its conference; however, they’ve yet to face a ranked opponent. While I don’t expect them to win out, I also don’t expect them to be playing in the Sun Bowl come the postseason.
As it stands, the Utes have pretty solid odds to make their conference championship and even the College Football Playoff, but it truly depends on how they perform down the stretch, as three of their next four opponents are ranked: No. 14 Houston, No. 2 BYU and No. 25 Arizona.
On3
The main thing we’ve learned is that essentially every media outlet has Clemson landing in the Sun Bowl as of now, with On3’s Brett McMurphy projecting the Tigers to face Oregon State.
The Beavers started the season off rough, dropping their first two contests of the year to No. 23 Houston and No. 13 Texas Tech, both of which have since moved up in the rankings. Since then, though, they have yet to lose a game, outscoring their opponents 255-94 en route to a five-game winning streak.
Though the Beavers haven’t faced an elite defense since the first two weeks, they rank first nationally in passing offense by nearly 500 yards, with 2,694 yards and 26 touchdowns.
The dynamic duo of redshirt freshman quarterback Braden Atkinson, who leads the country in passing yards (2,604) and touchdowns (24), and true freshman wideout Jessee Legree, who leads the country in receiving yards (1,040) and touchdowns (14), has driven that production.
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