Poll: Trump approval hits record low as Democrats gain edge ahead of midterms

(Oct. 21, 2026 / JNS)

U.S. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has fallen to its lowest level in The New York Times-Siena polling, with likely voters favoring Democrats over Republicans in congressional and gubernatorial races and giving Democrats higher marks on the economy, according to a new survey released on Wednesday.

Democrats led Republicans by 11 percentage points in House races (52% to 41%) and by 47% to 43% in Senate contests. They also held a 50% to 39% advantage in gubernatorial races, according to the poll of 3,494 likely voters conducted Oct. 12-19.

The results point to potential Democratic gains in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, when all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and numerous governorships are up for grabs. Midterm elections traditionally serve as a referendum on the president, and Democrats are seeking to regain control of both chambers of Congress.

Inside Elections, a Washington-based publication that tracks congressional races, projected on Oct. 15 that Democrats would gain 10 to 20 House seats. They need a net gain of three seats to win a majority. In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, Democrats were projected to gain three to five seats, with four needed to take control.

Trump’s job approval rating stood at 36%, while 59% disapproved of his performance.

The economy emerged as a major liability for the president. Three-quarters of likely voters rated current economic conditions as fair or poor, including 51% who said they were poor. Just 24% rated conditions as good or excellent.

Some 64% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 35% who approved. The issue was central to his 2024 presidential campaign, when he pledged to lower costs for American households.

Voters were even more critical of his handling of gasoline prices, with 73% disapproving and 24% approving. According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was about $4.28 on Oct. 20, more than $1 higher than a year earlier. Prices have risen amid the war with Iran, which the United States entered in February.

Voters also disapproved of Trump’s handling of the war, 65% to 33%.

Immigration, an issue on which Trump has traditionally held an advantage over Democrats, offered little relief. A majority of likely voters (57%) disapproved of his handling of the issue, while 42% approved.

Democrats also held advantages over Republicans on a range of policy issues. Likely voters said Democrats would do a better job handling health care (57% to 37%), the cost of living (55% to 40%), gas prices (53% to 39%), the economy (51% to 43%), foreign wars (51% to 41%), corruption (50% to 39%), immigration (50% to 46%), and artificial intelligence (48% to 37%).

The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.