The El Niño climate phenomenon is expected to persist into February 2027, with potential implications for temperatures and rainfall in the UAE, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
The latest climate outlook indicates a 96 per cent probability of El Niño conditions continuing through March 2027, with temperatures and rainfall potentially exceeding UAE averages.
The phenomenon is forecast to peak in October and November 2026, with the Niño 3.4 index reaching approximately +3°C, indicating a very strong event.
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What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern involving changes in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
During El Niño, waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm, influencing weather patterns thousands of kilometres away. The Niño 3.4 index measures sea-surface temperature anomalies in a key part of the tropical Pacific and is widely used to monitor the phenomenon.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and last around nine to 12 months, although their duration and intensity vary.
How could it affect UAE?
In a clarification issued on September 11, the NCM described the current El Niño event as very strong and said it could favour rainfall in the UAE. However, heavy downpours may occur only when local weather conditions are conducive to rain.
The phenomenon does not automatically mean the country will experience extreme rainfall, storms or flooding, as its effects vary by region and season and depend on local weather systems.
The NCM has also dismissed viral social media claims warning of severe flooding and unusually heavy rainfall directly linked to El Niño, urging residents to rely on official forecasts and weather warnings.
Earlier this year, NCM meteorologist Ahmed Habib previously told Khaleej Times that El Niño's influence on the UAE could become more noticeable during autumn, particularly in October and November.
“From autumn, particularly in October and November, El Niño’s effect will be felt over our region. At present, during the summer season, its influence is stronger in East Asia than in West Asia,” Habib said.
He added that the phenomenon could increase moisture over the UAE and raise the chances of rainfall, depending on local weather conditions.