Date: Saturday, October 24
Time: 2:00 PM (ET)
TV: ESPN+
The Quick Hits
As it probably will for the rest of the regular season, the Missouri Valley has one of the premier matchups of the weekend in the FCS. This week #6 North Dakota, fresh of a huge home win over South Dakota State, squares off with the other team from the Mount Rushmore State. The Hawks take their 3-1 conference record on the road to Vermillion to take on South Dakota in a game that will have a whole awful lot to say about the playoff picture in about a month.
The #8 Coyotes are in the midst of their own postseason push and share a similar 6-2 overall record with UND. South Dakota has won three straight but the level of competition is going to ramp up significantly on Saturday. Last year when these two came together it was the ‘Yotes who escaped with a 26-21 victory. Now, almost a year later in the same building, USD is looking to get the better of their neighbors to the North once more and if they do this time, it seems like they’ll be on the fast track to a top eight seed and, perhaps, a league title.
The Coaches
Eric Schmidt began running the ship for North Dakota last year and the transition from longtime head man Bubba Schweigert has been a relatively smooth one so far. In his first season, Schmidt led UND to the postseason and won a game before getting bounced in the second round to a very good Tarleton State squad. In year two he has the Hawks already two wins away from tying last year’s total and, if he pulls it off over South Dakota, it will be his ninth conference victory in a league that is extremely deep and talented. Schmidt is a North Dakota alum, having played linebacker for the Hawks (then Fighting Sioux) from 1998 to 2001.
His counterpart on Saturday will be another guy who’s just getting his feet wet as a head coach. South Dakota’s Matt Vitzthum is in his inaugural season heading up the Coyotes after serving as the team’s wide receivers coach in 2024 then quarterbacks coach/co-offensive coordinator last fall. Vitzthum took over in short order for Travis Johansen who moved on after just one season. He has not missed a beat, though, and has the ‘Yotes playing at the high level they’ve become accustom to as of late.
North Dakota Offense vs. South Dakota Defense
The UND offense got a big boost last week with the return of senior quarterback Jerry Kaminski. Kaminski, who went down a couple weeks ago, came back and played well last week against SDSU after there was some worry he might miss time. The Hawks will need him in order to keep up in these big games they have coming down the pipe. He’s thrown for 1,742 yards and 21 touchdowns this year and is completing passes at a 66.8% clip thanks in large part to the some of the lethal receiving weapons he has at his disposal.
Korey Tai and Deng Deng will be the two targets that Kaminski looks to the most. Deng leads the team with 518 receiving yards on 34 catches while Tai is the scoring leader with five TD grabs. The duo has been tough to stop for most every defense they’ve faced this year and the Coyotes are going to have a tall order, especially with some of their talented secondary pieces missing.
R.J. Stewart has missed the last two games for USD and, if he can’t go in this one there’s a real chance that Kaminski along with his receivers could feast. Guys like Kael Kolarik and Ethan Carrier will need to step up because Deng and Kai will be some of the best wideouts they’ve seen up to this point. Both Carrier and Kolarik have one interception as well as 48 combined tackles this year.
The Coyotes will also lean on one of the Missouri Valley’s best tacklers in senior linebacker Wade Abrams to shore up the middle. Abrams has 68 stops this year along with two forced fumbles. He is very active for the defense and will play a big role in not only spying Kaminski but also stopping running backs Charles Langama and Matt Lawson.
The tandem of Langama and Lawson has been great for the Hawks. They have teamed up for 925 rush yards and nine touchdowns this year. Langama is averaging nearly eight yards per touch and has been nearly impossible to stop when he gets momentum going.
South Dakota Offense vs. North Dakota Defense
North Dakota got the win last week over SDSU because their defense stepped up and smothered a usually-effective quarterback in Chase Mason. This week the game plan has to be the exact same same against freshman phenom Austyn Modrzewski. Modrzewski won the starting job over the offseason and hasn’t looked back, tossing 22 touchdowns and averaging almost ten yards per attempt. He has delivered some exceptional performances, especially as of late. Over the last three games, Modrzewski has completed 49-of-70 attempts for 617 yards, seven touchdowns and just one pick.
UND, though, has really come into its own, specifically in the secondary and last week may have been their finest performance yet in that department. Sophomore defensive back Grant Noland was one of the stars of the day against the Jackrabbits, posting six pass breakups on his own, bringing his season total up to 13. Noland led a unit that forced 20 incompletions and allowed just 169 passing yards last weekend. Again, they’ll need to use that as the blueprint because if they can’t slow down Modrzewski, it’s going to be a long day.
No doubt the biggest bolster to the defense, though, has been the return of star pass rusher Lance Rucker. Rucker missed the first half of the season with an ankle injury he suffered right before the first game. He came back against South Dakota State and his impact was immediately felt. He registered three QB hurries and the unit as a whole was able to play so much more freely with him wreaking havoc up front. Rucker will be a massive part of trying to make Modrzewski uncomfortable in the pocket.
The Coyotes will need to relieve some pressure off of their young quarterback and, in order to do that, they’ll need running back Charles Pierre Jr. Last week he did not play mostly out of caution as he did not feel 100% in warmups. Without him, though, the USD offense is not as dynamic. He’s ran for 604 yards and seven touchdowns on 90 carries. For those doing the math, that’s good for an average of 6.5 yards per carry. If he’s back, and it sounds like Vitzthum is optimistic he will be, then the ‘Yotes will be much more equip to deal with what UND will throw at them.
South Dakota will also need to continue to get production from their receiving corps. Brayden White and Tennel Bryant are the primary pass catchers. Each has over 400 yards and, between the two of them, have 11 scores this season.
Prediction
This game is extremely difficult to get a real read on because it depends almost entirely on what teams shows up on either side. Will it be the North Dakota squad that lost to Northern Iowa or the one that looked like a national championship contender last week? Will the South Dakota squad that looked lost against YSU be there on Saturday or will it be the one that has allowed just 14.7 points per contest over the last three weeks? Both teams are very well-built but both have had a rocky recent history in these sorts of massive games. Homefield advantage has been big for the Coyotes this year as they haven’t lost a game in the DakotaDome yet this year. Modrzewski is a frontrunner for the Jerry Rice Award and he will show why even with Rucker on the other side. In a close game, he’ll make the game-winning throw late to get it done.
Score Prediction: South Dakota: 27 – North Dakota 23