Brock Purdy and the undefeated San Francisco 49ers (6-0) head to Atlanta on Sunday for a game against Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons (2-4). The Niners have raced out to a three-game lead in the NFC West while the Falcons, despite their poor start, are just 1.5 games behind the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South.
San Francisco is arguably the most complete team in the NFL though the first third of the season, averaging 29.5 points per game while allowing just 18.3. Atlanta’s offense with Penix under center was dynamic in wins earlier this season over Green Bay and New Orleans but could not step up in class the past two games against Chicago and Baltimore. The defense has been serviceable but ultimately not good enough, allowing an average of 25.5 points per game.
The 49ers are coming off a 23-17 victory over Washington at home on Monday night. It was a game that San Francisco dominated early but the Commanders made interesting late. Overall, it was another balanced performance from Kyle Shanahan’s club. Prior to that victory, the Niners knocked off Seattle 32-29 and Denver 24-14. The Falcons, meanwhile, have lost their last two - 31-23 to Chicago last week and 30-23 to Baltimore the previous week.
No question the play of Penix is a storyline, but nearly as big is that of Bijan Robinson. Arguably the top running back in the NFL carried the ball just nine times and caught a mere two passes last weekend. That simply will not suffice. Yes, the Niners’ run defense is elite, allowing 90.2 yards per game, but Robinson’s ability to take it to the house every time he touches the ball requires him to be more involved. It is non-negotiable. Injuries for San Francisco are another storyline. Their defense is nicked up specifically at linebacker and in the defensive backfield. On offense, they will be without Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) and Mike Evans (Achilles) is questionable.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: 49ers vs. Falcons
- Date: Sunday, October 25, 2026
- Time: 1:00P
- Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- City: Atlanta, GA
- TV/Streaming: FOX
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Latest Game Odd: 49ers vs. Falcons
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers (-155), Atlanta Falcons (+130)
- Spread: 49ers -2.5
- Total: 49.5
Money has come in on the Falcons shrinking the Spread from Niners -4.5. The Total, however, has grown a couple points since opening at 47.5.
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Expert Picks & Predictions: 49ers vs. Falcons
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the 49ers and the Falcons:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Falcons +2.5.
- Total: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 49.5.
Here’s why the Game Total UNDER 49.5 is the best bet:
The UNDER is a matchup play between the 3rd-ranked defense in football (San Francisco, -16.9% defensive DVOA) and a Falcons’ offense that ranks 31st in pass attempts and 24th in passing yards. The head-to-head history has produced an average combined score of just 38.7 points over the last three meetings, with all three going UNDER. The one thing working against the UNDER is the 49ers’ explosive offense — they rank 3rd in points scored (29.5 per game) and 1st in offensive DVOA (37.7%). But with Deebo Samuel out and Mike Evans (Achilles) questionable, San Francisco’s receiving corps is hurting, and the Falcons’ defense ranks 9th in yards per play allowed.
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49ers vs. Falcons: Betting Trends and Stats
- The 49ers are 4-2 against the spread this season
- The Falcons are 2-4 against the spread this season
- San Francisco is 3-3 to the OVER this season
- Atlanta is 4-2 to the OVER this season
Quarterback Matchup: 49ers vs. Falcons
- 49ers: Brock Purdy
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 1460 Passing Yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs, 118.1 RTG, Sacked 5 times
- Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 944 Passing Yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT, 106.0 RTG, Sacked 9 times
49ers vs. Falcons: Top Playmakers
49ers
- RB Christian McCaffrey
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 77 carries for 350 Yds, 7 TDs / 28 receptions on 35 targets for 190 Yds, 0 TDs
- TE George Kittle
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 26 receptions on 36 targets for 337 Yds, 5 TDs
- WR Mike Evans
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 27 receptions on 39 targets for 420 Yds, 3 TDs
Falcons
- RB Bijan Robinson
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 111 carries for 641 Yds, 4 TDs / 20 receptions on 28 targets for 144 Yds, 1 TD
- RB Brian Robinson Jr.
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 53 carries for 211 Yds, 4 TDs / 5 receptions on 6 targets for 30 Yds, 0 TDs
- WR Drake London
2026 Statistics: 6GP, 31 receptions on 47 targets for 550 Yds, 0 TDs / 2 carries for 4 Yds, 0 TDs
49ers vs. Falcons: Injury Update
49ers
- WR Mike Evans (Achilles) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- DE Nick Bosa (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Mykel Williams (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Jaden Dugger (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Luke Gifford (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- SS Marques Sigle (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- SS Ashtyn Davis (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Garret Wallow (undisclosed) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- FS Siran Neal (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Upton Stout (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Falcons
- WR Caleb Douglas (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- OT Michael Jerrell (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Olamide Zaccheaus (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Divine Deablo (arm) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Samson Ebukam (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB C.J. Henderson (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Avieon Terrell (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Za’Darius Smith (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Anterio Thompson (undisclosed) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- CB Billy Bowman Jr. (hamstring) is listed as Doubtful for Sunday’s game
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