Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch looks at Michigan State's matchup with Northwestern. When: 12:06 p.m. Saturday. Where: Spartan Stadium. TV: Peacock. Betting line: Northwestern -7.5
1. Aidan Chiles' return in Chip Kelly’s offense
If you’ve been sleeping under a rock for the last nine months or six weeks, you might not know that former Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is at Northwestern or that it’s going quite well. Chiles makes his return to East Lansing this Saturday, where he started most of two seasons for the Spartans, as a much-ballyhooed transfer who had his moments but lost his job and his confidence last season. He’s gotten it back at Northwestern, where he leads the Big Ten in completion percentage and has nine touchdown passes without throwing an interception, playing in a Chip Kelly offense that seems tailored for him.
Part of that offense is a Wing-T, straight out of yesteryear, which thrashed Penn State especially, fitting of the innovator Kelly has been in the sport. Northwestern is averaging 35.4 points per game, up a dozen points from a year ago. Chiles, Kelly and this offense have been a terrific marriage so far. Telling of Chiles’ progress: In the one game Northwestern couldn’t run the football, at Indiana, Chiles made a number of plays to keep the Hoosiers on the ropes.
2. Alessio Milivojevic and MSU’s offense
Alessio Milivojevic and Chiles have a good relationship and a lot of respect for each other, even after Milivojevic replaced Chiles as the starter at MSU last season. I’m sure Milivojevic would love to have a game that reminds folks why he was the better option last November. More importantly, he’d love to produce enough offense for the Spartans to win a Big Ten game. MSU’s offense found some life just in time last week against Illinois. This is a better Northwestern defense, though perhaps not significantly better. Teams have had varied success running and throwing against the Wildcats. The question is whether Milivojevic and MSU’s offensive playmakers can pick up where they left off last week and even take it up a notch. That’s what it’s probably going to take to keep pace in this one.
3. MSU’s injury absences (and Northwestern’s, too)
The Spartans’ injury list is getting ridiculous. Not just in number — there are other Big Ten programs with a lot of injuries — but who is missing. This week MSU will be missing its top three interior linebackers (including Jordan Hall), top three cornerbacks, its starting left tackle (Ben Murawski) and, of course, starting running back Cam Edwards, who’s out for the season. That’s a lot to overcome, though Jaziun Patterson has been a bright spot at running back and MSU’s freshman duo at cornerback, Jeremiah Favorite and KJ Deriso, had some good moments last week, which bodes well for the program long-term. Still, having those two on the field with linebackers Cam Stodghill and DiMari Malone wasn’t the plan. But at least this week they’ve had some time to prepare.
Northwestern has more players on its injury report, though fewer ruled out. One to keep an eye on — safety Robert Fitzgerald (no relation to Pat), who’s a huge part of the Wildcats’ defense. He's listed as questionable.
4. Can MSU finally have a moment or a break?
When the Spartans finally seemingly had their big moment last week — recovering a surprise onside kick midway through the fourth quarter — the officials botched the call and took it away. Several of MSU’s forced fumbles this season have gone back to the other team, either in play or out of bounds. The Spartans are due a break — the strip-sack that turns into a touchdown, the return that goes 90 yards for a score, the big call that goes their way, when maybe it could have gone the other way. It’s going to take a little good fortune for the Spartans to win this one. It’s probably not asking too much at this point.
5. How MSU and Northwestern approach and handle this game
Pat Fitzgerald has downplayed the significance of facing Northwestern, the program he starred at and then led for 17 seasons, before being unceremoniously exiled. Yet, “He’ll tell you it’s not about him. But I know it’s an important game to him,” MSU defensive coordinator Joe Rossi said. Aidan Chiles has said he’s looking forward to his return. This game might have been an event because of those two reunions, except for the state of each team’s season. Northwestern is better than anyone expected, at 4-1 with its only loss a narrow defeat at Indiana. The Wildcats have aspirations much bigger than this game, College Football Playoff aspirations. The Spartans are just trying to win a game, any game. And for that reason, I don’t think the storylines within the game have quite as much juice.
But it’ll still be interesting to see how Chiles handles the moment, back in Spartan Stadium, especially if something goes wrong, and whether Fitzgerald can keep his middle finger to himself if something breaks against the Spartans. I do think this will be a focused MSU football team, fully aware of how big it would be to win this game, for their season, and the other stuff.
Prediction
If MSU has any advantage it’s that defensive coordinator Joe Rossi knows Aidan Chiles — what makes him comfortable and uncomfortable. Whether the Spartans have the goods defensively to execute that or limit Chip Kelly’s offense is another matter. Northwestern is a more seasoned program and team, operating at a higher level. It’s hard to see that changing on Saturday.
Make it: Northwestern 31, MSU 17
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football vs. Northwestern: 5 determining factors and a prediction