The Nitty Gritty Time Has Arrived for 2026
Greetings once again STS readers! Dabo Swinney always says each week is the “biggest game of the year” but even he has conceded that some games have more juice than others. This would have to be considered one of those games. While it isn’t on the scale of a top-ten matchup, or even what it might have been back in 2011 when Clemson traveled to face VT or when they saw the Hokies again in the ACC title game, it is a vital tipping point for both teams looking to regain relevance. The winner of this game stays firmly in the hunt for a chance to go to Charlotte. Reaching 10 wins would be a huge accomplishment for this year’s Tigers, and despite the two lopsided losses, it would be a step back up after 2025’s major letdown. Before we get to the matchup, here is my good, bad, and ugly from last week’s 37-0 win over Charleston Southern.
The Good: Clemson’s defense was lights out beyond a few moments during CSU’s first drive when their scripted plays found some success ahead of a missed FG attempt. I was most encouraged by how well the depth performed, particularly in the secondary, as they got subbed more and more into the game. The upgrade in secondary execution across the board cannot be understated after last year’s debacles. Clemson’s special teams continues to shine week in and week out. I said Chris Johnson, Jr. was on the verge of scoring a kickoff return and nearly did it on his one opportunity. Nolan Hauser continues to look like an NFL starter and the coverage team produced a turnover for a touchdown for loyal Tiger Kylon Griffin.
The Bad: Red zone offense wasn’t ugly because the Tigers did punch in touchdown runs from CJJ and Gideon Davidson, but obviously there were more missed chances and bad penalties that continue to haunt this year’s offense inside the 20 yard line. 37 points easily could have been 57 points or more considering the defensive and special teams dominance.
The Ugly: Clemson’s downfield passing attack gets the nod for the ugly. Especially when Tait Reynolds delivered plenty of throws that were there for big-money WRs TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco. Reynolds also apparently missed Moore running wide open on a post at least once, but lack of WR production and TDs were not on Chad Morris’s play calls. He’s getting 1 on 1 scenarios for the outside guys and they need to pay those off the way they are being paid to do. Clemson can’t afford to miss those in these next stretch of games.
Now that we are done with that, on to the 5-2 Hokies.
Clemson Offense vs. VT Defense: There are several reasons to have some apprehension as a Clemson fan looking at this game. Clemson’s running attack has proven to be much further along than the downfield passing game. It isn’t a coincidence that Clemson has run the ball effectively in the 4 wins and failed miserably to do so in the 2 losses. Clemson’s passing attack has yet to prove it can go win if it has to and VT’s defense has been good against the run so far this season. They have given up a lot of passing yards, however, but can Reynolds and the offense deliver enough to exploit that apparent weakness? Any DC with a functional brain is going to try to force Reynolds to throw to win, which will mean loading up on the run and sending pressures regularly. Clemson fans are going to get another real sign if the OL has gotten its act together more with the new (and reportedly best) group of five guys out there together. VT is a pressure defense and looks to force the issue which has helped them rack up good sack and TFL numbers as well as effective run defense, but likewise has opened them up to getting burned on explosives (especially in the passing game). Clemson desperately needs to hit on the explosive play chances that are going to be there and, of course, limit VT’s ability to get them behind the chains.
Dabo has harped on the team not winning the turnover margin in games this season. Clemson is certainly due to do that, but it starts with the offense not turning it over. Clemson ended up throwing the ball 44 times in the Miami game, and that number needs to be between 25-30 this week I think if Clemson is going to win. This team is not equipped to play shootout football right now, and VT is much more capable of that and has had those types of games already. Reynolds has cut down on putting the ball in jeopardy, and a big part of that is having better pass protection to begin with, but he’s been a little loose with the ball as a runner. Reynolds managed to avoid a bad turnover last week when he pounced on his own fumble, but the margin of error is not big in any of these remaining games to overcome putting the ball on the ground.
I discussed the Moore/Wesco duo earlier, but it is imperative one or both deliver and win their matchups that VT is going to present them with in order to try to force Clemson away from the running game. I liked a lot of the concepts Morris showed to get the ball to the outside guys in various ways, including using bootlegs with Wesco coming across where you traditionally use a tight end. TJ Moore has been best on the slant in the RPO game, but he needs to win more of the outside fade situations that he has not been nearly as good with this season. Gordon Sellars is out with a concussion, and that eliminates at least one of the plan B options that Chad Morris very thinly veiled that he desired to have to push Moore when he has his press conference on Wednesday. Clemson needs the 2024 Texas game or 2025 SMU game version of TJ Moore on Saturday night.
VT is similar in some ways to Miami defensively in that their front is stronger than their secondary. Clemson was unable to exploit Miami enough outside to offset being beaten at the point of attack that night. Clemson still needs to get at least 100 net yards rushing to keep that part of the offense relevant. The running back room is plenty good enough to deliver with Jay Haynes now back with Davidson and Johnson. They need to be given ample chances to deliver in this game.
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Clemson Defense vs. VT Offense: Clemson’s defense is certainly ahead of the offense in the growth department. Part of this is because the big money guys on this side of the ball are playing like they are big money guys more consistently. This will be a real test considering VT has at least one playmaker at WR, RB, and TE to go with an NFL prospect at QB. Clemson has to make sure that VT can’t get its running game going with Jeffrey Overton because he can hurt you badly if you let him get loose. BC found this out in nasty weather when Overton cooked them for 209 yards. Pittsburgh escaped with a win over the Hokies despite giving up nearly 500 yards of offense and 33 points, but one big reason was VT couldn’t run the ball and passing more led to more turnovers. Ethan Grunkemeyer is a good player as Clemson fans saw last year when he handled the Tigers in the Pinstripe Bowl, but you still want him having to attack the strength of Clemson’s back end versus having the balance of the running game to set things up and protect him.
I worry the most about VT using Overton in the screen game and their dynamic tight end Luke Reynolds because those guys will match up with Clemson’s nickel, safeties, or linebackers and not Ashton Hampton or Elliot Washington. It will be vital to make Grunkemeyer hold the ball so the rush can get there and get hands in the passing lanes on VT’s RPO game. VT can be turned over, but that depends a lot on getting them into more obvious passing scenarios and heating Grunkemeyer up. Penn State was able to manage enough of a run game and largely keep Clemson’s depleted defensive front from bothering him last year in the bowl game. He can really hurt you if you let him stand there and get through his reads.
Clemson isn’t going to keep VT under 100 yards and shut them out like they did CSU unless they deliver in some crazy way that far surpasses expectations. VT has too much talent to not have some success, but Clemson’s ability to turn them over and force field goal attempts will be massive. Clemson can win a game in the 20s, but allowing VT to get to 30 or more probably means a big fat L for the Tigers on Saturday night. Getting VT at home helps for sure because they have been way better in Lane Stadium than on the road, such as when they allowed a depleted California squad to take them down. VT has been a fast-starting team, which usually means they are good at their opening 12-15 play script, so Clemson needs to be locked in right away on defense.
Special Teams: Most fans who have been around since the 2000s know how much special teams helped Frank Beamer elevate VT to a top 20 program. It certainly was a major factor when Clemson lost a critical game with the Hokies back in 2007. Ironically, now the Tigers have the differential special teams play heading into this matchup thanks to outstanding work across the board under Rich Bisaccia. Returns look dangerous, coverage has been largely terrific, and Nolan Hauser has to be among the frontrunners for the Lou Groza Award. This game is pretty close on paper for sure, so this phase could be the difference. None of Clemson’s games has featured a special teams fake this season, so Clemson has to be alert. Fortunately there hasn’t really been any reason for Clemson to try to get fancy on returns or on kicks. The closest thing was Nolan Hauser’s pooch punt at California that paid off with a roughing penalty, but that is exactly why you run something like that on a defense that isn’t prepped to defend a punt.
Overall: There is a lot about this 2026 team that reminds me of the 2021 team. I ended up really liking that 21 team mainly because they showed real toughness to overcome the obvious warts and squeezed 10 wins out of a team that easily could have only won 7. That isn’t what you want year in and year out as a fan, especially when “Best is the Standard” is written in your facility, but this team has always been more about getting back to being tough. I had serious doubts coming out of the LSU game, but there have been real signs that the stuff we heard about with Dennis Love’s strength program and the new hires are making a positive difference. This game is a major chance to either promote that growth or dump kerosene on the “Dabo is done” narrative. This is Death Valley at night, and the Miami game was a missed chance on a lot of levels. Clemson gets another chance to deliver on that stage in a game that matters more than just being the next one up. It is hard to hide who you are at this stage of the season. It is a matter of maximizing who you are. 2021’s team did that; can 2026’s?