BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 2:58 p.m. ET · Source: Gerp Mercadologia
Key Facts
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 53% and Lula 47% of valid votes in the Gerp poll published on Tuesday 20 October.
- What changed Gerp’s previous poll, published on 16 October, had Flávio ahead 52% to 48%, so the gap widened from four points to six.
- Margin of error 2 percentage points, from 2,400 voters interviewed between 15 and 19 October.
- The vote Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.1% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 2:43 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 23% and 21%), as of 20 October, 2:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Gerp’s TSE registration number was not stated in the coverage we reviewed.
Gerp Mercadologia, a Brazilian polling firm, published a new runoff survey on Tuesday 20 October that puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula 53% to 47% of valid votes. The result widens his lead from the 52% to 48% Gerp reported on 16 October, five days before the Brazil election 2026 decides who governs Brazil.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
26 national polls from 14 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots and match how the electoral court (TSE) reports results. This is one of several Brazil election polls that the Rio Times tracks, and it sits at the upper end of the current range.
What the Gerp Runoff Poll Found
Gerp interviewed 2,400 voters between 15 and 19 October and reports a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The survey uses a tracking format with a three-day moving average, which smooths out daily swings.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, has 53% of valid votes. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president and leader of the Workers’ Party, has 47%.
How the Lead Has Moved
Gerp’s poll published on 16 October had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48%, according to our earlier report. Gerp had Flávio at 55% and Lula at 45% on 13 October, so the lead is still smaller than a week ago.
The new reading adds one point for Flávio and takes one from Lula compared with 16 October.
Datafolha, the polling institute linked to Folha de S.Paulo, had the race at 51% to 49% on 15 October. Different firms use different methods, so their numbers can diverge by a point or two.
What a Six-Point Gap Means
The six-point gap lies outside each candidate’s 2-point margin of error. The margin applies to each figure separately, so the lead is not certain.
A poll still measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. Turnout and late decisions in the final days can change the outcome.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a runoff this close can keep prices moving until the count is known. The winner will also shape Brazil’s trade and diplomatic ties with Washington for the next four years.
Read this poll alongside the others rather than on its own. Our poll tracker lists every survey so you can compare firms and methods.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.1% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 2:43 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$189 million in total bets.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.1% · Lula 22.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 21%
As of 20 October, 2:40 pm ET (19:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The coverage we reviewed does not give Gerp’s TSE registration number, who paid for the survey or the confidence level. We will add them if the firm or the electoral court publishes them.
It is also unclear how many undecided voters remain and which way they will go. Gerp’s tracking format means the next reading could move the average again before Sunday.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest Gerp runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 53% of valid votes against 47% for Lula. Gerp published the survey on Tuesday 20 October.
What is the margin of error in the Gerp poll?
The margin of error is 2 percentage points. Gerp interviewed 2,400 voters between 15 and 19 October.
How did the Gerp poll change from the previous one?
Gerp’s 16 October poll had Flávio ahead 52% to 48%. The new poll widens the gap from four points to six.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots. The electoral court reports results this way, so pollsters publish the same figure.
Sources: Cláudio Dantas, 20 October 2026; ND Mais, 20 October 2026; Jair Sampaio, 20 October 2026; Poder360, 16 October 2026; Revista Oeste, 13 October 2026; Polymarket, 20 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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