DK Metcalf, Jaylin Noel headline Week 7's Regression Files

Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.

Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.

Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.

In this space I’m going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.

Total Team Air Yards

Below is a quick look at league leaders in total team air yards through six weeks of the regular season.

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud and the Texans simply refuse to stop pouring on the air yards. We thank Stroud and Houston’s garbage rushing attack for their service.

It was another air yards-heavy game in Week 6 against the Jaguars, as your favorite Regression Files writer may have mentioned last week, with Houston posting 270 total air yards, the 13th most of the week. They’re now averaging 337 air yards per game and rank seventh in pass rate over expected.

It’s why you are legally allowed in 44 states to have a little hope for the prospects of Marvin Harrison, Jr., who had an 18 percent air yards share in Week 6 against the Jags while running 26 percent of the team’s routes. This many air yards week in and week out should make Nico Collins frightening for fantasy purposes, and other clear paths to production for MHJ, Dalton Schultz, or Jaylin Noel, who remained red hot in Week 6 (more on that below). Harrison’s environment could hardly be better for statistical purposes going forward.

Washington Commanders

With Terry McLaurin set to miss the rest of the season with a torn patellar tendon, someone else is going to have to eat the air yards in the Washington offense. McLaurin, after all, led the team with a 33 percent air yards share headed into Week 6.

Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown are next up as potential downfield threats for Jayden Daniels. Burks, who sustained an injury late in the game against the 49ers, led Washington with a 28 percent air yards share and was targeted on nearly 20 percent of his routes. With an 18.2 aDOT, Burks would make the most sense as a Terry replacement.

Chig Okonkwo, who had seven targets on Monday night against the Niners, should also see a boost. Okonkwo is third on the Commanders in first-read targets and operates from the slot on about 40 percent of his routes. I could see him becoming a plug-and-play tight end option if his route rate ticks up from 60 percent to something in the mid-70s or even the 80s.

Las Vegas Raiders

The El Kirko-led Raiders rank seventh in total team air yards per game over the past four weeks. The team’s awful defense and total lack of a running game probably means the air yards party will continue until, well, morale improves. Their 351 total air yards against the Bills ranked sixth in Week 6.

This should fuel plenty of (potential) production for Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker. Tucker, thanks to a garbage time deep-ball touchdown, had a monster stat line in Week 6. His 33 percent air yards share was just behind Bowers for the team lead. Though Tucker’s 14.7 average depth of target will make him frustratingly high-variance, He should benefit from a Vegas offense that has no choice but to air it out for now.

I must note, of course, that Tucker’s 63 percent bullseye rate is the NFL’s highest among downfield pass catchers this season. The Regression Reaper sits and waits patiently, as always.

Los Angles Rams

No one generates air yards like the Rams generate air yards. Well, almost no one. I guess the Packers do, but just barely.

From Week 3 to Week 6, the Rams have averaged a stunning 415 total air yards per game, by far the highest mark in the NFL over that stretch. Since Week 2 — when their season really started — they’re nearly 8 percent over their expected pass rate, the fourth highest in the league. Sean McVay‘s team, facing a deficit on 83 percent of their offensive snaps since Week 3, has had to routinely abandon the run game.

You may have heard Davante Adams is out for a while with a particularly bad hamstring injury. Probably this means Puka Nacua could be the first NFL player to have 500,000 air yards in a single game. It also means someone is going to see a bunch of opportunity. It could be one of the Rams’ 19 tight ends, someone like Tyler Higbee or Colby Parkinson.

Konata Mumpfield figures to see more playing time with Adams sidelined. He’s third on the team (among receivers) in routes and fourth in targets behind Nacua, Adams, and Higbee. Mumpfield’s average depth of target (14.4) is roughly in like with Adams’ aDOT (15.6). So it makes sense in a few ways.

The loss of Adams could mean even more pass game usage for Kyren Williams. Not only does Williams lead the league in RB targets (38); he has a hefty lead in running back air yards (101, with the next closest being Ashton Jeanty with 68). Running back air yards is more than a running bit on the Rotoworld Football Show. They matter, and consistent positive air yards means a back isn’t having to gain yards and break tackles just to get back to the line of scrimmage. Look for more pass-catching work for Williams. It would be no surprise to see him eclipse 100 receptions by season’s end.

New York Giants

Since Week 3, only the Packers, Rams, and Panthers have more air yards per game than the G-people. Similar to the Raiders’ air yards situation, the Giants have little choice but to let it rip with no semblance of a run game and a Swiss cheese defense that can be had on the ground and through the air.

I don’t think this was a product of Jameis Winston being under center for New York. The team’s air yards gluttony can continue with J.J. McCarthy at the helm, though we could see a slight drop off thanks to McCarthy’s willingness to take off and run — turning a potential pass attempt into a rushing attempt. McCarthy, who apparently threw for 243 yards in the fourth quarter against New Orleans last week, looks to be on the precipice of seizing the means of air yards production from Winston. JJM would take over a New York offense that is 7.5 percent over its expected pass rate over the past three weeks.

What does this mean? Well, in short, it means Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely have a real chance to go berserk for fantasy purposes over the next couple months. Likely, who leads all NFL tight ends in air yards this season, could very well end up being a top-three tight end scorer in 2026. He was, it turns out, the Guy You Needed at tight end.

Here’s a look at NFL offenses with the fewest air yards through Week 6.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs, with Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton out, tried to make Xavier Worthy a thing in Week 6 against the Chargers. Worthy led the team with seven targets, catching all seven for 73 mostly forgettable yards. Worthy had a grand total of 31 air yards against the Chargers, or a 23 percent air yards share. Dusty Travis Kelce led the Chiefs with 38 air yards.

As you can see above, there’s just not much chance any pass catcher in the KC offense can get there without a bunch of yards after catch (this is where I tell you the Chiefs are leading the NFL with 7.81 yards after the catch per reception). Kelce should remain somewhat playable in 12-team leagues, though he will be touchdown-dependent if/when the team has a ton of neutral and positive game script. Worthy for now is a fine flex option. His role will (very) likely vanish the moment Rice comes back from his hamstring injury though.

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners haven’t had to do much passing this season. You can blame Brock Purdy and the massive California data center powering his spreadsheet fraudulence. It’s not that Kyle Shanahan has been stubborn about passing; his 49ers rank inside the top 10 in pass rate over expected.

That could change in Week 7 against the pass-funnel Falcons. Atlanta’s opponents this year are 7.3 percent above their expected pass rate, the third-highest mark in the NFL. No team is facing more pass attempts per game than the Falcons, who give up the fourth-most total air yards per game through Week 7. Only four teams have allowed more completed air yards than the Falcons. That should be fun this week for Mike Evans (if he plays), George Kittle, and maybe even Brandin Cooks or Christian Kirk if he’s active.

Denver Broncos

The same Denver offense that ranked top five in total air yards a season ago is now dead-dog last in air yards per game. Sean Payton took over the offense a couple weeks ago and Bo Nix has hardly thrown a pass beyond the sticks ever since.

The Broncos over the past couple weeks have the league’s third-lowest pass rate over expected, the fifth-lowest neutral pass rate, and the fourth-fewest offensive snaps per game. Against the Seahawks last week, the Broncos had a meager 108 total air yards, the second fewest of the week. It’s a deeply ugly environment for Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, RJ Harvey, and the rest of the team’s pass catchers. Some are saying it could not get worse. We’ll see, I guess.

Prayer Yards Warriors

(Players who could see positive regression)

I’ll start this section of Regression Files by reminding you that most of the Miami wideouts are enormous positive regression candidates because Malik Willis appears to be the most inaccurate passer in the history of organized football. If he ever gets any better, one or two of the Dolphins’ receivers could be interesting as flex options in 12-team formats.

DK Metcalf (PIT)

Prayer yards rate: 62 percent

I’m back to writing about just how unlucky/high variance Metcalf has been in the pass-first Steelers offense. Only Matthew Golden has more incomplete air yards this season than Metcalf, who has a whopping 38 percent air yards share this year. He most recently had a 64 percent air yards share in Week 6 against the Bucs. It’s good stuff. It could be good stuff, anyway.

Metcalf has more air yards in 2026 than all but nine wideouts. The Steelers, meanwhile, are averaging the sixth most total air yards per game. We just might see Metcalf convert some of those air yards into actual, real-life yards this week against the Saints in what should be a high-volume game for both sides.

It doesn’t hurt that the Saints allow the league’s fifth highest target rate to boundary receivers (46 percent). New Orleans has allowed the ninth most air yards over the past two weeks. The Regression Reaper smiles.

Bryce Lance (NO)

Prayer yards rate: 79 percent

Lance has quietly run a route on 75 percent of the Saints’ drop backs over the past three weeks. He’s functioned as something of an air yards eater in the high-volume, fast-pace New Orleans offense, accounting for 21 percent of the team’s air yards with an aDOT of 14.3 yards.

Lance has converted just 55 of his 265 air yards through Week 6. With a little luck (variance) he might turn that opportunity into points you can use in your lineup. You could do worse than Lance if you’re looking for a desperation flex in Week 7.

Rashid Shaheed (SEA)

Prayer yards rate: 66 percent

We could see other Seahawks pass catchers besides JSN get involved in the Seattle offense now that the team is regularly chasing points in the second half. After a 2025 season in which they enjoyed a nonstop flow of positive script, this year’s Seahawks are being forced to throw the ball once in a while.

The Hawks, in fact, were third in total air yards last week with 404, way above their pre-Week 6 average of 247 air yards per game.

This should benefit Shaheed more than any other Seahawks pass catcher. We saw something percolating in Week 6 against the Broncos, when Shaheed ran half the team’s routes and took in nearly 30 percent of the air yards (JSN led with a 44 percent air yards share). Though he’ll be sensitive to game script, Shaheed’s explosiveness and downfield looks should give him potential upside in most games going forward, including this week against Kansas City.

Bullseye Enjoyers

(Players who could see negative regression)

Jaylin Noel (HOU)

Bullseye rate: 96 percent

Noel read last week’s Regression Files and laughed. It was rude, frankly. I’m hurt. Noel defied the Regression Reaper in Week 6 against the Jaguars, running 60 percent of Houston’s pass routes and turning four targets into 107 yards and a touchdown.

Noel over the past two weeks ranks sixth in the NFL in fantasy points per route run. He’s running red hot. He might lose snaps and routes to MHJ, making Noel even riskier than you might think. The Regression Reaper looks at Noel’s 96 percent Bullseye Rate and chuckles.

DeMario Douglas (NE)

Bullseye rate: 53 percent

It’s not that Douglas’ season-long rate of accurate air yards is unsustainable, but that he’s run particularly hot over his past three games, with a 64 percent bullseye rate. This ignores the Patriots placing Romeo Doubs in IR, a move that should keep Douglas involved in the highly efficient New England passing attack.

Douglas in Week 6 was second on the team in receiver pass routes, targets, and air yards, trailing AJ Brown, who had one of the worst performances of the modern era.

Keon Coleman (BUF)

Bullseye rate: 62 percent

Coleman, the recipient of Josh Allen‘s Favre-like back-handed flip into the end zone on Sunday against the Raiders, is running fairly hot for a wideout with an aDOT of 13.9 yards.

DJ Moore‘s continued absence will keep Coleman on the field for the Bills, who over the past few weeks have reverted to their 2025 run-first offense — one that isn’t exactly fantasy friendly to anyone but James Cook and Allen. Coleman, who over his past three games has converted 65 percent of his air yards, likely isn’t playable in 12-team formats if Moore returns from injury after the Bills’ bye.

Good Air Yards Matchups: Week 7

Packers vs. Lions

DET air yards allowed per game: 372 (2nd)
DET neutral pass rate against: 67 percent (1st)
DET pass rate over expected against: +9.3 percent (1st)

Probably it goes without saying that this game should feature somewhere north of 1 billion air yards. Two pass-happy teams are squaring off, with one of those teams (Detroit) profiling as a generational pass-funnel defense. Hopefully, with the anticipated return of Josh Jacobs, Matt LaFleur does the right thing and continues to let Jordan Love cook. Use this potentially fantastic scoring environment as a tie breaker in your various start-sits this week.

Saints vs. Steelers

PIT air yards allowed per game: 303 (15th)
PIT neutral pass rate against: 62 percent (4th)
PIT pass rate over expected against: +2.9 percent (7th)

I take great pleasure in saying both of these defenses profile as pass funnels — not to the extreme of the Lions and Commanders, but we’ll take what we can get here. Both the Saints and Steelers pass a lot too, ranking eighth and 10th in total team air yards per game, respectively.

This has the makings of a back-and-forth game with lots of plays and plenty of drop backs. I think it puts guys like Juwan Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Bryce Lance, and Devaugn Vele in play as 12-team options. Naturally, Germie Bernard will continue cooking as a PPR scam artist.