After week five’s phenomenal upset of the Dallas Cowboys in primetime, week six featured a nice fall back down to earth for Todd Bowles, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and their fans. The Buccaneers, despite leading for the entirety of the game, managed to be outscored 16-3 in the fourth quarter and then 7-0 in overtime, pulling a loss from the jaws of victory. This week, Tampa Bay travels north for a divisional matchup against the 3-2 first place Carolina Panthers.
Sunday’s week seven battle between the Panthers and the Bucs is a tougher one than most feel out because their is a momentous what if on Tampa’s side of the equation.
—What if Sunday is Baker Mayfield’s first game back?—
If this Sunday features Baker Mayfield under center for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as opposed to Jalon Daniels, everything shifts for Tampa. Mayfield versus Daniels wouldn’t spell a clear victory for the Buccaneers or be a definitive reason they should be favored, but it would represent a significant alteration in the way the Buccaneers’ offense can approach the game. Baker Mayfield was reported to have been throwing this week (with a glove on) so for the first time in nearly a month, Mayfield suiting up feels like a possibility. That being said, for the context of this article, we will be operating as if it is going to Jalon Daniels and not Baker Mayfield throwing passes for the Bucs on Sunday.
“Even when I don’t see, I still believe.”
Jeremy Camp
How can the Buccaneers win?
Great question.
The 2026 season is 6 weeks in and the reality is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a bad football team. They are not well coached, they come into games with poor strategy and gameplans, they lack the ability as players to overcome those shortcomings, and as a result they’ve lost five of six to start. Not only is the record bad, but they don’t even do very many things particularly well. They have an inconsistence rushing attack (albeit good at times), pass protection has been largely optional, when there is time to throw accuracy isn’t a given, but even when there are well placed accurate passes drops are running a muck. The team’s defense has been solid, but also not so solid depending on the day, time of day, and time of the game as it pertains to that time of day, as evident by their highly inconsistent stats— Ranking top five in both rush yards allowed and total yards allowed, but bottom-half of the league in points allowed. Special teams has the crown of boasting the team’s best individual player— Chase McLaughlin. There is no better Tampa bay Buccaneer at this point in time than McLaughlin, however, on the other side of things they have a highly inconsistent, unreliable, well-paid punter.
With an underratedly-formidable opponent on the schedule this week, the Buccaneers don’t have a significantly clear path to victory. Tampa is the underdog, should be the underdog, and will need to play above their skis just to hang around and maybe pull out a close victory. The issue, even in that game theory, is the Buccaneers have been absolutely horrendous in close games. Every week the Buccaneers seem to find themselves in one-score games and they manifest ways to lose them.
Tampa has been in 1-5 in one-score games this season— That’s bad, but it gets worse. The Buccaneers have been 3-9 in last 12 one-score games. Worse still, the team’s record in games that have been decided by one score, under Todd Bowles is an appalling 19-24. So it would seem their best path to victory would be blowing out the Carolina Panthers, and somehow that seems even more unlikely.
Can the Buccaneers win? Yes, any team can have their day on any given Sunday (or Thursday), but the scenario is not one that lends itself towards that conclusion.
“Sacking a quarterback is just like you devastate a city or you cream a multitude of people. I mean it’s just like you put all the offensive players in one bag and I just take a baseball bat and beat on the bag.”
Deacon Jones
How can the Buccaneers lose?
Fail to slow down Bryce Young.
Simply put, Bryce Young has been sensational this season. In 2026, national media will treat the Carolina Panthers and the entire NFC South like speed limits on the I-95. While being ignored, Young has produced. The Panthers are only 3-2 (not great, but by the standards of the NFC South— Superb), however, Young has been lights out. Carolina’s former number one overall pick, turned bust, has now transformed himself into a very good player.
In five games, Young’s thrown 11 touchdowns to go along with only two interceptions. Those are numbers that weren’t even in the range of reachable for Young based on his performance over the last few seasons, but we are here not there.
Carolina’s offense has totaled 25+ points in all but one game this season, they average the fourth most points per game in the league. The Buccaneers’ defense has been fluky in 2026. The group has been really reliable and able to stall offenses of both high and low caliber, until the team really needs them to. At that point, they tend to fold. Statistically, the matchup should be a good one. The Buccaneers have the defense to combat Carolina’s attack and favor may even be on the Bucs’ side as Bryce Young has been pretty consistently sacked this season— 12 times in just five games which plays right into what has been a weakness for Todd Bowles’ defense for nearly a half-decade now. Sunday would be an excellent opportunity for guys like Yaya Diaby and Calijah to Kancey to start their season and also for Rueben Bain Jr. and David Walker to continue to build on their momentum from a week ago— three sacks between the two of them.
In 2026, Young and the Panthers are an opponent that needs to be respected. They are in first place and will be motivated to stay there. For the better part of the 2020’s, the NFC South has been victim to tiebreakers— Divisional games matter and there is a zero percent the Panthers will be overlooking the Buccaneers on Sunday.