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President Donald Trump has made good on his claim of putting more than $300 million of his political war chest into the 2026 midterm election.
New campaign finance filings released Tuesday night show millions flowing into House districts that were barely competitive two years ago, underscoring how far the GOP's problems have spread in the final weeks of the campaign.
MAGA Inc., Trump's main super political action committee, reported $300.5 million in disbursements through Oct. 14, with a quarter of that election cycle total — $75.5 million — being spent in the first two weeks of October, according to new Federal Election Commission filings. It still held $164.3 million in cash, and Trump said Tuesday his political operation would spend more than $400 million by Election Day.
Much of the money is moving through two new Trump-aligned groups. MAGA Inc. has sent $200 million to No Going Back PAC and $25 million to Safety & Affordability PAC, which have already reported more than $209 million in independent expenditures between them, according to FEC filings.
The spending is also likely to ease months of Republican anxiety that Trump would sit on his massive war chest rather than deploy it in the midterms. GOP operatives had worried as recently as September that MAGA Inc.'s cash would remain largely on the sidelines.
Safety & Affordability has spent $3.76 million in Arizona's 1st District, $1.84 million in Maine's 2nd, $1.60 million in Wisconsin's 3rd, $1.48 million in North Carolina's 1st and $1.40 million in Ohio's 10th. It has also put more than $1 million each into Pennsylvania's 8th, Ohio's 9th and Michigan's 7th, according to a CNBC analysis of the PAC's filing.
Several are established battlegrounds. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates Wisconsin's 3rd, North Carolina's 1st, Pennsylvania's 8th, Ohio's 9th and Michigan's 7th among its 21 "Toss Up" races.
Other places Trump is donating show Republicans being forced onto less familiar terrain.
In Ohio's 10th District, Safety & Affordability PAC has spent about $1.4 million defending Republican Rep. Mike Turner, who won by 18 points in 2024. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee now lists the seat among a new tier of possible 2026 pickups, while the National Republican Congressional Committee only began spending there this month, according to AdImpact.
No Going Back has also spent roughly $5 million each in Republican-held Michigan's 4th and North Carolina's 11th, while putting another $14.4 million combined into Democratic-held Florida's 14th and 25th, according to a CNBC analysis the PAC's FEC filing.
At the same time, other Republican groups are beginning to triage. The Congressional Leadership Fund, House Speaker Mike Johnson's super PAC, stopped spending on advertising in Iowa's 1st, New Jersey's 7th, Michigan's 8th and Ohio's 1st districts, the Associated Press reported last week. Trump-aligned groups, meanwhile, have spent about $1.4 million across those four races, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC filings.
Republicans still hold the advertising edge in 25 of the 42 House races rated "Toss Up" or "Lean" Republican or Democrat by the Cook Report, according to AdImpact. But the political environment continues to move toward Democrats. Of the 21 House races Cook rates as "Toss Ups," 16 are Republican-held and five are held by Democrats.
Trump's PACs have also spent big in the Senate, according to the new filings. No Going Back has spent nearly $30 million in Michigan, $27.8 million in Ohio, $11.8 million in New Hampshire and $9.9 million in North Carolina, according a CNBC analysis of the new FEC filings. Those four races alone account for roughly $79 million.
Trump's own standing may help explain the pressure. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Wednesday put his approval rating at 36%, with 59% disapproving.
Voters in the poll disapproved of his handling of the cost of living by 69% to 29% and gas prices by 73% to 24%. Democrats led by 10 points when voters were presented with the House candidates actually running in their districts.
Trump's allies are also trying to solve a turnout problem: getting voters who backed him in presidential elections to show up when he is not on the ballot.
MAGA Inc., in its latest filing, reported a $16.2 million Oct. 8 disbursement labeled "voting education." The New York Times reported Tuesday that the group has run more than 2,200 unique Facebook and Instagram ads in more than 20 states urging Republicans to vote early or turn out.