The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for Bulgaria’s economic growth this year from 2.8% to 2.6% and revised its average annual inflation projection upwards from 3.8% to 4.9% compared with its spring assessment.
The Fund expects Bulgaria’s economic growth to accelerate to 2.7% next year, up from the 2.5% projected in April. At the same time, its forecast for average annual inflation has been raised from 3.7% to 4.8%.
The outlook for the current account has also deteriorated significantly. The deficit is now expected to reach 8% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, compared with the 4% projected in April. For 2027, the IMF forecasts a deficit of 6.6% of GDP, up from its previous estimate of 3.2%.
The labour market outlook remains unchanged. Unemployment is expected to fall from 3.6% in 2025 to 3.4% this year and 3.3% next year.
Edited by Diana Tsankova