BRAZIL · MARKETS
Key Facts
- —What is happening Prediction market bettors gave conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro 74.8% at midday on Thursday to win Brazil’s runoff on Sunday, 25 October, down from 86% on Tuesday, 13 October, and the lowest price since the first-round result.
- —Why it matters The runoff decides who governs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for the real, São Paulo shares and the Brazilian stocks that Americans hold in New York.
- —The numbers The price fell about ten points in 24 hours and more than fourteen from its 89.1% peak on 9 October; a Wednesday poll shows 46% to 44%, and the real is 1.1% weaker on the official rate since 9 October.
- —Who is who Flávio Bolsonaro is a Rio de Janeiro senator of the Liberal Party, Brazil’s main conservative party; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, of the left-wing Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term as president. Quaest and Datafolha are polling firms.
- —What to watch Datafolha is due to publish its next runoff poll from 6:30 p.m. Brasília time on Thursday, 15 October (5:30 p.m. ET), and Flávio gives his TV Globo interview on Friday, 16 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 74.8% and Lula 24.5% to win the runoff, and Kalshi 77% and 23% (15 October, 12:07 p.m. ET), with more than US$182 million traded on Polymarket. Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 24% and 23%), as of 15 October, 2:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you US holders of Brazil funds and New York-listed Brazilian shares face a close vote in ten days, and a 25% US tariff on Brazilian goods has applied since 22 July.
Bettors have cut Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning Brazil’s runoff to about 75%, from 89% on 9 October. A Quaest poll on Wednesday showed a two point race, but no source ties it to the price.
Brazil runoff odds have moved against Flávio Bolsonaro, whom bettors on Polymarket gave a 74.8% chance of winning at midday on Thursday. That is down about ten points in 24 hours and the lowest since the first-round result on 4 October.
Quaest’s poll on Wednesday, 14 October, put him two points ahead of Lula. For US investors, the vote on Sunday, 25 October, decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy and handles tariffs with Washington.
How Brazil Runoff Odds Moved in 24 Hours
Polymarket’s price for a Flávio win peaked at 89.1% on Friday, 9 October, and stood near 86% on Tuesday, 13 October. It held about 85% on Wednesday afternoon before reading 74.8% at 12:07 p.m. ET on Thursday, 15 October.
The move came in steps, the market’s price history shows. It fell 1.4 points from 7 to 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 2.5 from 6 to 7 a.m. on Thursday.
What the Quaest Poll Showed
Quaest, polling for Brazil’s Globo media group, gave Flávio 46% and Lula 44%, with 9% blank, null or abstaining. It surveyed 2,154 people from 10 to 13 October, with a two point margin of error.
Poder360, a Brasília news site, puts that at 51.1% to 48.9% of valid votes, which exclude blank, null and undecided answers. Globo calls the race a technical tie, because the gap sits inside the margin.
The gap matches Quaest’s last survey before the first round, when both candidates stood two points lower. Quaest also found that 53% of voters now expect Flávio to win, against 35% before the first round.
Poder360’s tally of ten runoff polls, published on Thursday, has Flávio ahead in nine and Lula ahead in one. Leads in valid votes range from about two points in Quaest and PoderData to ten points in Gerp.
How the Real and Brazilian Shares Fared
The central bank’s PTAX sell rate was 5.0441 reais per US dollar on Wednesday, 14 October, against 4.9892 on 9 October. That means the real has lost 1.1% against the dollar since the Ibovespa set its record.
The Ibovespa, São Paulo‘s benchmark index, closed at 206,506 points on Wednesday, 1.2% below its 9 October record. B3, the São Paulo exchange, reported a 0.18% fall that day and a record close of 209,067 points on 9 October.
In New York, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, ticker EWZ, closed at US$42.60 on Wednesday, down 2.2% from 9 October. It is still 11.5% above its 2 October close, the last trading day before the first round.
Where the US Tariff Stands
The US Trade Representative, a White House office, has applied an added 25% tariff to Brazilian imports since Wednesday, 22 July. Its notice of 20 July exempts civil aircraft and parts, pharmaceuticals, and steel, copper and other goods already under separate tariffs.
The notice says the office “will consider whether modifications are appropriate”, with no date for any review. It cites digital trade, ethanol access and deforestation among the practices at issue.
What It Means for US Readers
US holders of Brazil funds and New York-listed Brazilian shares face a close vote in ten days. Bettors price a Lula win at more than one in five, and the newest polls show a close race.
The 25% tariff stays in force unless Washington changes it, and the next president takes office in January 2027. Readers can place the race in Brazil’s power structure and the foreign players around it.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 74.8% and Lula 24.5% to win, as of 12:07 p.m. ET on Thursday, 15 October. More than US$182 million has traded there, and Kalshi, a federally regulated US exchange, has Flávio at 77% and Lula at 23%.
In a separate margin market with about US$1.4 million traded, a Flávio win by under four valid-vote points is priced at 40.5%. A Flávio win by four to eight points is at 32.5%, and a Lula win by under four points at 20%.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 23%
As of 15 October, 2:20 pm ET (19:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
No source checked explains why the price fell, and none ties it to the Quaest poll or to any other event. Bettors are not a sample of voters, so the price is a bet, not a poll.
Datafolha, the polling institute of the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper, had not published its new numbers when this was written. Its last poll, on 8 October, had Flávio at 49% and Lula at 45% among all voters.
It is not known whether Quaest’s result marks a real shift, since its gap matches the pollster’s last pre-vote survey. The US tariff has no announced review date, so its future under either winner cannot be stated.
What Comes Next
Datafolha is due from 6:30 p.m. Brasília time (5:30 p.m. ET) on Thursday, 15 October. TV Globo airs Lula’s interview that evening, Flávio’s on Friday, 16 October, and a final debate on Friday, 23 October.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the latest Brazil runoff odds?
Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro 74.8% and Lula 24.5% at 12:07 p.m. ET on Thursday, 15 October. Flávio’s price was about 86% two days earlier.
Why did Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds fall?
The sources checked give no cause. Quaest’s poll showed him ahead by only two points, but no source ties it to the drop.
What did the Quaest poll show?
Quaest gave Flávio 46% and Lula 44%, within a two point margin of error. It surveyed 2,154 people from 10 to 13 October.
How has the Brazilian real moved?
The central bank’s PTAX rate went from 4.9892 reais per US dollar on 9 October to 5.0441 on 14 October. That is a 1.1% weaker real.
Does the US tariff on Brazil depend on the runoff?
The 25% tariff has applied since 22 July, and the notice sets no review date. The sources checked do not say the election result will change it.
When is the next major poll?
Datafolha is due from 6:30 p.m. Brasília time on Thursday, 15 October. The runoff itself is on Sunday, 25 October.
Sources: Quaest runoff poll, Globo report (14 October, TSE registration BR-08729/2026); Poder360, Quaest runoff poll (14 October); SBT News, Quaest poll of 3 October; Poder360, tally of runoff polls (15 October); InfoMoney, Datafolha release time (15 October); O Povo, Datafolha release time (15 October); Diario de Pernambuco, Datafolha of 8 October; Imirante, Globo interview and debate dates; B3 Bora Investir, Ibovespa close of 14 October; B3 Bora Investir, Ibovespa record close of 9 October; Central Bank of Brazil, PTAX rate of 14 October; Federal Register, USTR notice of action on Brazil (91 FR 45516, 20 July 2026); Polymarket and Kalshi public market data, Polymarket price history, Nasdaq daily closes for EWZ (all accessed 15 October 2026).