For all the focus on jabs, elbows, knees and throws, sometimes all it takes is a little push in MMA. Especially when you’re on the precipice.
That’s where Alexander Volkanovski finds himself, as much as in Abu Dhabi and at the Etihad Arena. People can talk down the physical threat of Movsar Evloev – and they have – based on the Russian’s relative lack of finishes, but Volkanovski stands on the edge of a sheer drop. It is a long way down, even for the man who walks out to “Down Under”. And this is perhaps the greatest threat to the Australian’s second reign as UFC featherweight champion, at 38 years old.
Volkanovski has been one of the finest fighters of a generation, and is arguably the greatest featherweight of all time (even if the Jose Aldo debate may never end), but there exists a trend that even the sacred few atop the MMA mountain have been able to outfight or outthink.
“Curse” would be a funner phrasing than trend, and if you want to buy into that framing, it’s a curse that befell the great Anderson Silva, and Israel Adesanya more and Kamaru Usman more recently.
Silva held the longest UFC title run of all time, a record he still holds, before being dethroned by Chris Weidman, and that loss kickstarted a 1-7 run that ended his MMA career (barring a no-contest against Nick Diaz, a win that was overturned as Silva failed a drug test). Silva’s broken leg in his rematch with Weidman offers some explanation for his severe drop-off in form, but it cannot wholly account for the skid.
One of those to defeat Silva in that miserable middleweight run was Adesanya, who was 22-1, unbeaten at middleweight, and held five successful title defences before his own prime ended in a flash – almost a blur, like his trademark offence during his glory years.
Adesanya’s KO by Alex Pereira marked the start of the end; although he avenged that loss with his own KO of the Brazilian five months later, the rematch seemingly showed the last vibrant flicker from a fading fighting light, because he has since lost four in a row – a points loss to seismic underdog Sean Strickland, a submission by Dricus Du Plessis, and KOs by Nassourdine Imavov and Joe Pyfer. Each of the 37-year-old’s opponents was ranked lower than the last.
Usman’s decline has felt less drastic, but partly due to his lower in-ring activity, one could argue. The 39-year-old is 1-4 in his last five, like Adesanya, but the latter’s last five fights date back to April 2023, while Usman’s reach back to November 2021. When the welterweight’s 19-fight win streak (including five successful title defences) was ended by Leon Edwards’s iconic head kick, Usman was left lying on his back and sitting in the middle of a 1,316-day wait for a win.
That victory came in 2025, against Joaquin Buckley: a fighter of a lesser calibre than many of Usman’s recent opponents, and one who provided the right style for the former champ. Since then, Usman has fought once and lost, against Du Plessis in July. He is thus 0-2 at middleweight, thanks to a prior loss to Khamzat Chimaev, and so his bid to reinvigorate his career has failed.
The declines of Silva, Usman and Adesanya came earlier in their lives than Volkanovski’s would, if it were to start now, which is testament to his longevity. Usman and Adesanya feel like relevant references because they are of the same generation; at one point, these were arguably the pound-for-pound top three fighters in MMA.
It is also important to note that Volkanovski has not just staved off a sudden downfall by getting to 38 without falling apart; he has done so by actively rallying after a spell that could have marked his end.
There was no shame in Volkanovski’s narrow loss to Islam Makhachev up at lightweight, and he bounced back with a masterclass against Yair Rodriguez, but when “Alexander The Great” took a rematch with Makhachev on short notice, he was knocked out in round one. His proclivity for activity looked costly, and afterwards, he admitted to struggling with his mental health when he was not fighting.
Those same struggles explained his quick turnaround against Ilia Topuria four months later.
Topuria was a frightening contender at the time, but as well rounded as he is, his versatility is surely trumped by Volkanovski’s own. However, the Aussie’s fans feared Topuria’s sickening power specifically, and that foreboding feeling was justified when “El Matador” played the bull and trampled Volk.
A fighter who had been 24-1, and who had not lost in 10 years, had suddenly lost three fights in the space of a year – including back-to-back KOs.
What followed was a 14-month absence, which could have marked a needed rest or a risky move for a fighter in the latter half of his 30s, especially given his return came against the heavy-handed Diego Lopes. But Volkanovski produced a trademark clinic, with the exception of a flash knockdown from Lopes, to outpoint the Brazilian and kickstart a second title reign. Nine months later, he outpointed Lopes again, and more comfortably.
That brings him to Evloev, who has patiently waited for a long-deserved title shot.
At 20-0 and 32 years old, he should provide a tricky test, but the wrestling specialist’s threat does not appear to resemble Lopes’s or Topuria’s; the challenger’s last three wins have been controversial decisions, and it feels like five close rounds await fans on Saturday.
Many of those fans will be Evloev’s, for what that is worth; will there be a ‘home’ advantage on the scorecards? In March, the judges in London did not favour Lerone Murphy in the Britain’s tight contest with Evloev, so perhaps favouritism will be a non-factor.
Still, Volkanovski will need to be at his intelligent, precise best to win the required rounds against Evloev, with whom he trained years ago. The betting odds, and MMA logic, suggest this fight will be razor close. Perhaps as close as Volk is to the edge.