JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- This is a big week for the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the AFC South at large as a whole.
The Jaguars and Houston Texans will face off in London in Week 6 for the most pivotal game of the AFC South's 2026 season thus far. With a win, the Jaguars would be 5-1 going into their bye week while the Texans would be at 1-5 and would need to go, at absolute worst, 8-4 over the last 12 weeks of the season to even have a chance.
But if the Jaguars lose, they could allow the Texans to climb back into the AFC South race at 2-4. The Jaguars would be two games ahead of them entering Week 7, but the Texans have a very easy next month and could easily catch up to the Jaguars.
In short, there is a lot at stake this week. The Jaguars could put the Texans down, or they could let them back into the fight. So, how do we see things playing out? We break it down with this week's bold predictions.
Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud Combine for 7 TDs, 2 Turnovers
I think everything about this game indicates it is about to be a pure shootout between Trevor Lawrene and CJ Stroud. Two great run defenses, two teams whose best players right now are their quarterbacks, and two offenses who have learned that they can win games by relying on their No. 1 targets in the passing game. Lawrence and Stroud have both played great football to start 2026, and I think this carries over to Sunday's game.
I do think each quarterback will turn the ball over once, which is something Stroud has barely done this season. The Texans still have a ton of defensive talent, and the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the NFL are creating takeaways. With that in mind, I think this becomes a fireworks show between the two passing games and we see each quarterback have a fair amount of success.
The Jaguars Out-Rush the Texans by 75+ Yards
I think it is clear to expect the Texans to run the ball against the Jaguars on Sunday. The Texans' offense ranks No. 23 in EPA/Rush and No. 29 in rushing success rate, along with the fourth-highest stuff rate of any running game. Against a Jaguars defense that has allowed an average of 42.66 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, and this is one matchup the Jaguars should win.
But what about when the Jaguars have the ball? Can Bhayshul Tuten find success against a strong Texans' defense that has stopped a lot of running games along the way? According to NextGenStats, "the Texans defense has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate (7.6%), third-fewest rushing yards per game (78.4), and second-fewest rush yards over expected (-80) this season ... Bhayshul Tuten ranks fifth among qualified RBs in missed tackles forced rate (57.0%) and eighth in explosive run rate (13.4%)."
The Texans are the toughest test Tuten and the Jaguars have had to face on the ground to date. I expect the Jaguars to significantly outpace the Texans on the ground, even if that doesn't lead to a massive day of production.
The Jaguars Allow 5 Sacks, But None to IDL
Few defenses bring the pressure like the Texans' defense. Their pass-rush changed the game a year ago when the Jaguars lost in Houston in Week 10, and it has now slowed down this year. Will Anderson Jr. leads the NFL in sacks and the Texans are second in sacks as a team, ranking third in sack%, 10th in pressures, and No. 12 in pressure %. Anderson and Danielle Hunter will also be facing a Jaguars team without Anton Harrison, who normally plays his best games against Houston.
As a result, I expect for the Texans' edge room to get after Trevor Lawrence quite a bit. With that in mind, I think the Jaguars will have success against the Texans' interior front of Sheldon Rankins, Tommy Togiai, and Logan Hall. The Texans have an elite edge duo, but their defensive tackles are not as good as other ones the Jaguars have faced over the last month in Zach Allen, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Jordan Davis, or Jalen Carter.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Records Under 30 Receiving Yards
The Marvin Harrison Jr. trade certainly created some headlines toward the end of last week, and it isn't hard to see why. Harrison is a former top-5 pick who, at one point, was seen as a potentially generational wide receiver prospect. The Texans plan to play Harrison this week, and the Jaguars and head coach Liam Coen have already said that preparing for Harrison and his skill-set is already underway.
With that said, I just do not see him doing much against the Jaguars. The Jaguars give up a decent amount of yards and catches to outside receivers as a function of their scheme, but Harrison is the same receiver who has struggled to get open all year. I like both Jarrian Jones and Travis Hunter in coverage against Harrison this week, which I think will lead to a small day of production for the Texans' new receiver.
Jakobi Meyers Leads the Way For Passing Game
I think this is a week where the matchup is going to favor Jakobi Meyers. It was Brenton Strange two weeks ago and Parker Washington last week, but I believe it is going to go in Meyers' direction this week for a few reasons. For one, the Texans have been one of the best defenses in the NFL against tight ends this season. They also do have a potential hole in the slot, which could mean a big day for Washington, but I think they are going to try to roll coverage to him and give him extra attention.
That brings us to Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers on the outside, where the Texans have struggled. The Texans' pair of outside cornerbacks have allowed 16 combined explosive receptions through five games, while the Texans are the worst team in the entire NFL at defending wide receiver targets based on EPA/Play -- even worse than the Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions, and Miami Dolphins. With that said, I think Meyers is the one who will benefit more so against that matchup this week.
According to NextGenStats, Thomas has been targeted on 2 of his 17 deep routes this season (11.8%), after being targeted on 27 of his 87 deep routes in 2024 (31.0%). Thomas has been targeted on six deep passes with Stingley in coverage in his career and has not caught any of them with Stingley intercepting one. This likely means Meyers draws the better matchups, and he has the kind of tough skill-set that translates to this kind of matchup. I expect a lot of Meyers this week.
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