Donald Trump is barnstorming the country to boost Republicans in the final weeks of the midterms. But many candidates want to keep that support quiet.
The president is nowhere to be found in GOP ads, even in red states where Republicans were happy to tout his endorsement two years ago. And some candidates are hesitant to appear with Trump on the campaign trail — even as they hope he will help juice turnout among the MAGA base in November.
Democratic House and Senate candidates and outside groups have spent $145 million on general election ads mentioning Trump, while Republicans have spent just $8 million, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising. That's in sharp contrast to 2024, when GOP candidates spent $62 million on ads mentioning Trump.
"Trump is at historic lows right now, so if he comes to your district or state, it's about getting the Republican base vote out there and that can certainly help," said Ron Bonjean, a longtime GOP strategist. "But it's really important for the candidates not to be talking about Trump 24/7 on the campaign trail."
The unfavorable national political environment leaves few incentives for GOP candidates to tie themselves to Trump, and more and more Republicans in competitive races have broken with the president on issues such as the Iran war and tariffs.
When Republicans do mention Trump in ads, they often aren't touting his support. In Alaska, GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan has run an ad citing how he "voted to force Trump's DOJ to release the Epstein files."
The silence on the airwaves is especially stark in red states like Nebraska and Ohio. In 2024, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), who was facing a challenge from independent Dan Osborn, and now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), who was challenging then-Sen. Sherrod Brown, both ran several general election ads featuring endorsements from Trump. The president won Nebraska by more than 20 points and Ohio by 12 points that year, with Fischer and Moreno also winning their races.
But this cycle, the GOP isn't focusing its ads on Trump in either state, as the match-up between Osborn and Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts heats up in Nebraska and Brown seeks to oust Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio.
Both Ricketts and Husted appeared at Trump rallies earlier this month. Still, Trump is absent from all Republican Senate ads in Ohio, and the only Ricketts ads that name the president accuse Osborn of disparaging Trump supporters — but don't mention Trump's endorsement.
"The war in Iran, I think, has become a real noose around the neck of Republican candidates because of the affordability crisis," said former Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci. A nonprofit he works with surveyed voters on whether GOP candidates should appear with Trump and found that "in most cases you do not want [Trump] standing near you, which is why I was a little bit surprised that Jon Husted has had two events with President Trump, because I do believe there's a strong headwind in Ohio, and a big change from 2024."
Husted's campaign spokesperson Amy Natoce told POLITICO in a statement, "President Trump won Ohio decisively three times by 8 points, 8 points and 11 points. If we successfully turn out the MAGA vote this November, then we will retire Sherrod Brown for good."
The National Republican Senatorial Committee did not respond to a request for comment.
"President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress," White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said. "The choice has never been more clear: doubling down on President Trump's winning, commonsense agenda or the Democrats' extreme liberal policies and obstruction."
Another Republican operative, who is based in Ohio and like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly about their own party, said GOP candidates need to find a way to talk about the Trump administration — no tax on tips, protecting social security — without mentioning the guy in the Oval Office.
"This is a historically unpopular president," said the strategist, who has worked on multiple statewide races over the course of the last 15 years. "We all agree with that, and so it's kind of hard to attach yourself on the airways, I think, too closely to him."
Trump's rallies, unlike candidates' ads, are seen more as targeting the president's base. He's not only visiting traditional battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but also typically safe red states like Alabama and Kansas.
Still, his events have been a source of tension with some GOP candidates. When Trump's team was making plans for the president to campaign in Michigan last week potentially in western Michigan, several Republican candidates and their teams up and down the ticket initially didn't know whether they should attend and be seen with the president, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge of the conversations, who were granted anonymity to share private details. They were concerned about being associated with Trump's tariffs, which have hammered the state, along with high fuel prices amid the Iran war.
Trump officials scrapped the event and said the president would visit the state later in the month. Trump is now scheduled for a rally in the state on Oct. 25.
"[Republican candidates] are going to do what they need to do," said one GOP pollster close to the White House. "What the White House and the president are doing is they are targeting places where they think the president can be helpful."
Trump has allowed Republicans to discuss issues pertaining to their states or districts as "he understands that it is not a balk on him," said one White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
If Trump "was to believe that all these individuals were balking him, I A) don't think that he would want to be on the road every day, and B) I do think that you would probably see a more vocal President Donald J. Trump on Truth, et cetera, kind of voicing his opinion on it," the official said.
The president and his team are giving most Senate GOP candidates especially a wide latitude to break with some of his policies at times, according to two other White House officials involved in the conversations. Trump, they said, understands the need for vulnerable candidates to create some distance, even though in the past he has lashed out at members of his party for similar moves.
Republicans in the more MAGA-friendly House, however, are expected to run more in lock-step with the president. Only the most at-risk candidates are afforded some room to break with Trump, the officials said, given the tidal wave of chaos that can spur within the conference.
One GOP strategist working on a battleground House race, granted anonymity to discuss private information, said he had gotten pre-approved from the White House for his candidate to miss a planned rally. Still, the strategist cautioned, that doesn't mean Trump won't berate someone from the stage when he notices the candidate is missing.
Republicans still see Trump as a unique motivator for his base and rallies as a tool to help turn out voters who might be driven by the president. With Democratic voters already energized by opposing Trump, the GOP has less to lose by bringing the president out to turn out MAGA voters too.
"The reality is, Democrats are going to vote in this midterm," said Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist from North Carolina, where Trump is set to return for a rally next week as GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley struggles to close the gap in his race. "And what Republicans need to be doing is focus on what they can do to improve their voter turnout on their side."
Lauren Fedor, Myah Ward, Andrew Howard and Alex Gangitano contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on Politico at https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-hitting-campaign-trail-hes-140000243.html