President Trump is carrying his insatiable appetite for controversy into the most unforgiving stretch of the electoral calendar, fortified by a decade of political survival.
- "Bottom line, it's gonna all work out. You know why? It always does," Trump told reporters this week.
Why it matters: Gone are the days of a single "October surprise," swallowed by a familiar barrage of scandals, provocations and shattered conventions that have persisted in the closing weeks of Trump's final midterm election.
The big picture: Axios has documented Trump's steady demolition of presidential norms in his second term, from the transition through his first 100 days and first year in office.
- This year, even the threat of losing Congress — and with it, much of his ability to pursue his agenda over the next two years — has done little to temper the pace or audacity of Trump's presidency.
Consider the first 15 days of October alone, and the succession of controversies that might have shaken the foundation of a more conventional presidency:
- Raid on a political opponent: Federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) home and seized her phone as part of an investigation aimed at stripping the sitting member of Congress of her U.S. citizenship and ultimately deporting her, the Wall Street Journal reports. Omar denies wrongdoing.
- Calls to shoot leakers: Trump declared at an Arizona campaign rally that officials who leak sensitive military information "should be shot," invoking an earlier era when he claimed the government routinely executed leakers.
- Concessions to Vladimir Putin: Trump eased sanctions on Russian diesel, demanded the ouster of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pressured Kyiv to stop attacking Russian refineries. Late Friday night, Trump waived sweeping new Russia sanctions under a bipartisan law named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham that he signed just last month.
- Taxpayer-funded political ads: Trump spent millions in taxpayer dollars on campaign-style ads promoting his presidency, until a federal judge ordered them halted. He then directed his MAGA Inc. super PAC to finance future spots, drawing a separate complaint alleging violations of campaign-finance law.
- Federal crackdown on the press: The Justice Department launched an antitrust investigation into ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News and NBC after the networks suspended White House pool coverage to protest Trump's ban on three news organizations.
- $5,000 election promise: Trump pledged to send every adult American a $5,000 check if Republicans retain control of Congress, explicitly tying more than $1 trillion in proposed federal payments to the outcome of the midterms.
- DOJ intervention in the midterms: With voting already underway, the Justice Department sued California to block 20,000 ballots from suspected noncitizens — the latest escalation in a sweeping campaign to affect American elections.
- Grisly social-media posts: Trump posted footage of a man being fatally mauled by a tiger, followed by a montage of animal attacks set to upbeat music and an AI-generated video of himself wrestling and embracing a tiger.
- $333 million in ballroom donations: Secret records obtained by the Washington Post revealed the corporations and billionaires bankrolling Trump's White House ballroom, including donors who benefited from government contracts, regulatory decisions and a presidential pardon involving a family member.
The other side: Three October episodes forced Trump into rare retreats — largely of other people's making.
- A televised execution: Trump scrapped Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's plan to livestream a convicted mass murderer's execution by firing squad after bipartisan outrage.
- An ambassador's downfall: Trump forced Kimberly Guilfoyle — who was engaged to his son for four years until 2024 — to resign as ambassador to Greece after reports that she solicited $100,000 from a political donor to cover personal credit-card bills. Guilfoyle denies wrongdoing.
- A five-day press secretary: Trump ousted Katie Zacharia amid scrutiny of her legal credentials and a widely criticized debut. Axios reports Trump was blindsided to learn that Zacharia — whom he had introduced as an attorney — had never passed the bar exam.
What they're saying: Far from seeing October as a month of political peril, the administration is celebrating it as a continuation of Trump's record.
- "Since Day One of his administration, President Trump has boldly and consistently fulfilled on his campaign promises to protect national security, make America beautiful, secure the border, crack down on crime, ensure free and fair elections, and make life more affordable," White House spokesperson Allison Schuster told Axios.
- "October is shaping up to be another incredible month," she added.
Between the lines: Trump has spent a decade defying political gravity. But the economic strength that helped insulate him during his first term has given way to a deepening crisis of public confidence.
- A Fox News poll released Wednesday put Trump's approval at 36% — his lowest in either presidency — including a devastating 22% for his handling of inflation.
- In the same Fox poll, government corruption narrowly surpassed inflation as the issue drawing the most extreme concern from voters.
The bottom line: Trump is treating a moment of maximum political vulnerability like business as usual, betting that the instincts that carried him this far won't fail him now.