Middle Corridor Could Add $58 Billion to Regional GDP by 2040, World Bank Says

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ASTANA – The Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor could increase the combined gross domestic product of countries along the route by 3.3% and generate around two million jobs by 2040 if governments invest in infrastructure and improve cross-border coordination, according to a World Bank report presented in Astana on Oct. 15.

“The Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, also known as the Middle Corridor, is more than a transit route. It can help Central Asian countries connect with global markets, attract investment, diversify their economies and create business opportunities,” said Andrei Mikhnev, World Bank country manager for Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

Speaking at the New Silk Way business forum, Mikhnev noted that Central Asia’s strategic location between Europe and Asia creates opportunities, but geography alone is not enough to deliver economic benefits.

“The European Union has even nailed the term ‘Global Gateway,’ of which this transport corridor is an important part. But geography alone does not create opportunities. The challenge is to turn connectivity into economic value, and transit flows into broader development,” he said. 

Countries along the corridor have invested in railways, roads, ports, logistics facilities and border crossings, while pursuing reforms to facilitate trade and strengthen regional cooperation

According to Mikhnev, further progress will depend on more closely coordinated operations, streamlined border procedures, digitalization and greater private sector participation.

Trade volumes expected to grow

Luis Blancas, World Bank’s senior transport and logistics specialist, presented the report’s findings, describing the corridor as a platform for private investment, job creation and economic growth.

He noted that the route offers distinct benefits depending on countries’ geographic locations and trade needs. 

“For the five Central Asian countries, the corridor provides access to global markets and helps diversify trade routes. For the South Caucasus and Türkiye, it offers a more direct connection to Europe, Central Asia and East Asia. For China and Western Europe, it provides an alternative for containerized freight,” Blancas said.

The corridor is also complementary to other Eurasian trade routes, rather than necessarily competing with them, because each route has different costs, operating conditions and advantages for particular types of cargo.

According to the Middle Corridor Association, total freight volumes on the route grew at an average annual rate of 34% between 2021 and 2025. Containerized freight volumes increased by an average of 32% annually over the same period.

The World Bank projects that total freight volumes could rise from about 9 million metric tons in 2023 to nearly 24 million metric tons by 2040, even without additional infrastructure investment beyond projects and facilities in place at the end of 2025.

With further infrastructure investment, volumes could reach 32 million metric tons by 2040. Non-oil freight volumes could increase to about 16 million metric tons, approximately 4.5 times the 2023 level.

Without additional investment, the corridor could miss out on 33% of potential total freight volumes and nearly 90% of potential non-oil freight volumes, according to the report.

The report estimates that infrastructure investment could boost the combined GDP of corridor countries by 3.3%, equivalent to $58 billion at current prices, through increased imports and exports by 2040. The estimate does not include the potential impact of transit trade.

Infrastructure is not the only challenge

Blancas noted that although infrastructure investment remains important, the corridor’s main challenge is likely to be operational performance rather than a lack of physical capacity.

The World Bank identified 16 critical bottlenecks along the corridor, with an estimated cost of around $25 billion to address them. According to the report, 75% of the identified bottlenecks, accounting for 85% of the estimated investment cost, were being addressed. 

“The remaining 25% of the projects have not yet entered the implementation phase but are firmly included in government plans and are expected to proceed,” Blancas said.

Investments have already improved capacity on key sections of the network. In Kazakhstan, for example, the double-tracking of the Dostyk-Moiynty railway line reduced its estimated capacity utilization from 100% in 2023 to about 40%, according to the report.

However, infrastructure improvements alone will not necessarily make the corridor competitive with alternative routes for containerized freight between China and Europe.

For a shipment from Chongqing, China, to Budapest, Hungary, average delivery times on the Middle Corridor currently range from 47 to 50 days, compared with about 45 days by sea and 18 days via the Northern Corridor, according to the World Bank’s analysis.

Blancas highlighted that additional infrastructure investment could reduce delivery times on the fastest Middle Corridor route to around 26-27 days by 2040, while the Northern Corridor could offer delivery in around 19 days.

“According to our modeling projections, combining infrastructure investment with improvements in trade facilitation, service delivery and cross-border collaboration would allow the fastest route along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor to close the performance gap with the Northern Corridor by 2040,” he said. 

Call for closer regional cooperation 

The report proposes a framework called the TCTC Assessment and Response Structure, or TARS, to improve cross-border cooperation. It includes a shared system for measuring corridor performance, a public-private advisory committee and a platform for intergovernmental decision-making. 

Blancas said inconsistent data and fragmented coordination make it difficult for governments and businesses to plan effectively. A common evidence base would help participating countries identify bottlenecks, assess progress and coordinate investment decisions.

The report also calls for simplifying transport documentation. 

“Moving a container between China and Europe along the corridor currently requires around 15 documents, many of which contain overlapping information,” Blancas said.

The World Bank proposes introducing a single digital Transport, Transit and Trade document, known as T3, alongside a decentralized digital system that would allow national platforms to exchange information while preserving data sovereignty.

Another recommendation is to establish a joint railway and shipping undertaking involving the corridor’s main railway operators and shipping lines. The initiative could improve coordination across rail and maritime segments and support more reliable, time-specific freight services.

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