Manyane Manyane|Published
The 2026 local government elections are expected to result in fragmented councils, forcing complex coalition alignments that will alter the country’s political trajectory in the run-up to the general elections in 2029.
Specialised research and advisory firm Oxford Economics Africa reported that current polling forecasts a widespread absence of outright majorities, both nationally and in six of the country’s eight key metropolitan councils.
The report stated that political backing for the ANC is collapsing, yet voters are not pivoting to the DA, the nation's primary opposition party.
Instead, the electorate is splintering across smaller factions, ensuring a turbulent post-election climate defined by intense coalition horse-trading. Consequently, the governance of numerous municipalities will ultimately be decided by party brokers rather than the electorate.
This assessment aligns with a broader consensus from multiple independent research bodies and polling institutions who also warned that coalition governments are becoming a permanent structural fixture of local government rather than a temporary trend.
Coalitions are driven primarily by a declining electoral majority for the ANC and a growing proliferation of smaller, fragmented political parties. This shift has created “hung councils” where no single party wins 50% plus 1% of the seats, forcing parties to negotiate power-sharing agreements.
According to the research briefing, the upcoming local elections are unfolding against the backdrop of a weakening and increasingly erratic ANC. Deep-seated factionalism and internal structural hurdles continue to plague the party, severely crippling its traditionally powerful electoral apparatus.
This subdued campaign effort is primarily the result of severe funding shortages and a depleted budget. Furthermore, a decade of shrinking electoral support has reduced the number of available patronage positions, which has significantly intensified political rivalry at the municipal level.
The report stated that the party also embarrassed itself by failing to announce its mayoral candidates in August, despite widening its nomination process and promising to present voters with the “best on offer”.
Rather than boosting the DA, the report stated that the ANC’s political decline has primarily fuelled the rise of leftist alternatives like the EFF and the MKP.
The report further added that a decade of political shifting saw the ANC's national vote share drop from 64.8% to 45.6% between 2011 and 2021. Meanwhile, the DA climbed from 16.2% to 21.6%, peaking at 27.4% in 2016.
This decline cost the ANC vital metros, including Johannesburg, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay, and later Ekurhuleni. Despite exploiting local council instability to regain control of these areas, recent data suggests the ruling party's electoral decline is far from over.
“The end of the ANC’s hegemony and the fragmentation of support for parties on both ends of the political spectrum mean fewer municipalities have been won outright; a trend that is set to continue in 2026. The situation is most pronounced in urban centres, but it is also becoming more common in some rural areas,” read the report.
The briefing also stated that the upcoming decisions in most divided metropolitan areas, including Nelson Mandela Bay and the Gauteng metros, will heavily shape the nation’s political landscape.
“Here, the ANC and DA will be forced to make a difficult and hugely consequential decision: do they go in search of other major coalition partners or do they partner with each other? The ANC has the advantage here, as it could partner with the EFF, PA, ActionSA, and other smaller parties. By contrast, the DA has few coalition options, as its most reliable traditional partners, the IFP and VF+, are not projected to win enough votes to help it achieve a collective majority.”
Political analyst Professor Theo Neethling said that although the ANC is likely to remain relatively strong in parts of the Eastern Cape, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and the North West, where historical loyalty, established party structures, and the ANC’s liberation legitimacy continue to play a role, this does not mean that the party will necessarily maintain its former dominance everywhere within these provinces.
“In KwaZulu-Natal, the emergence of the MK Party and the enduring presence of the IFP have fundamentally altered the political balance of power. In Gauteng - specifically in Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni - the ANC’s position is threatened by poor service delivery, perceptions of corruption, and strong challenges from the opposition. The Western Cape remains the DA’s primary power base, although the party’s ability to expand its support beyond its traditional strongholds will be of particular importance to its national ambitions,” he said.
Neethling also warned that while local government elections offer a strong sign of the political direction heading into 2029, they are not a dependable forecast for national results, adding that municipal elections reflect immediate community frustrations, service delivery issues, and the quality of local candidates rather than broader national voting patterns.
Neethling added that the 2026 local elections will also indicate whether South Africa’s political system is shifting toward a new balance of power; one in which coalitions, rather than single-party governance, become the standard form of political administration.
manyane.manyane@nationalmg.co.za