Diamonds looking lost and panicked as Constellation Cup woes continue

We are halfway through the Constellation Cup and it is hard to know whether to panic about the state of the Diamonds.

Australia finds itself in a 0-2 hole after losing in Auckland 56-50 and in Christchurch 62-50, with two Tests still left to come in Sydney and Melbourne.

This is the last opportunity the Diamonds have to prepare against international opposition without another series scheduled between now and the 2027 home Netball World Cup.

The Diamonds have looked uncharacteristically lost and panicked, while the coaches have struggled tactically. Some of Australia's greatest ever players are out of form but still getting a starting position, and fans are questioning why more hasn't been done to develop the next generation of talent.

The recent events at the Commonwealth Games probably feed into the worry, seeing the side fall short of the gold medal match for the first time in August.

If the Diamonds concede all four Tests to New Zealand, they are also expected to be knocked off their number one world ranking, a status they've held since 2013.

So, is the series a lost cause? Are injuries to blame? Or should we hold our breath and hope home-crowd advantage swings momentum? Here are the main talking points at the midway point of the Constellation Cup.

Missing key players

Australia is dearly missing defender Jo Weston.

The veteran made herself unavailable for selection to give her body a much-needed break and focus on her Masters studies at Deakin University.

Weston's work rate at goal defence and wing defence makes a huge difference. A relentless tagger, she wears down the opposition and slows play outside the circle.

Could she be coaxed into changing her mind? After all, a similar situation happened in 2022, when Weston was originally rested from the series but received an SOS call to cover injury with Australia trailing 2-0. Her team went on to win the final two games at home.

The team has also had to rejig its midcourt following injuries to Kate Moloney and Jamie-Lee Price. Moloney was ruled out of the game on Sunday after suffering a finger laceration while trying to catch a ball at training. She returned to play on Wednesday with stitches.

Price appeared in the first match but sustained a calf injury that prevented her from playing in the second. In both instances, head coach Stacey Marinkovich decided to play Liz Watson out of position at centre before subbing her off in the third quarter. It hasn't been the captain's best performance.

Whether Price will be able to make it back is unclear, but the Diamonds desperately need to do something different defensively. They've been unable to consistently hold up New Zealand's ball speed and the feed into target Grace Nweke.

In Auckland, they were behind on the gain stat 13-6 and in Christchurch it was just as bad, 9-2.

Home-crowd advantage

Since 2014, the Constellation Cup has been played as a four-Test series, granting each country equal hosting rights, and that home-crowd advantage is no joke.

Over the past five series, the team hosting has emerged victorious in 18 of the 20 Tests played.

Because of this, we're unlikely to see either national body agree to hold an uneven number of Tests in the future. Even if it'd be more exciting for fans to see a team win outright than by goal aggregate.

It's certainly been tough going in New Zealand again this year. The Silver Ferns have been the better side in six of the eight quarters and have forced the opposition to make 29 changes, scrambling to find answers.

It's been five years since the Diamonds last won a Test across the ditch. That outing was Marinkovich's second in charge and Watson's first as captain.

In fact, Marinkovich's winning record in New Zealand only sits at 7 per cent since taking on the top job in August 2020. But does that really matter if the team wins the overall series, you may ask? Well, in the 10 series preceding her appointment, Australia only lost it once.

In the five completed since, Australia has conceded it twice. A loss in 2026 would give Marinkovich a 50 per cent Constellation Cup success rate. Although she is contracted through to the end of 2027, there is a lot hinging on these results.

New Zealand last beat Australia two years ago in Perth to claim the 2024 trophy. It was the first time in history they'd won three consecutive games within the series.

Now there's a real chance it could happen again.

However, if we're to borrow a cricket analogy, it's important to wait till both teams bat before we place our final judgement. Home-crowd advantage tells us there's a possibility that we could be sitting here in a week's time in a very different state of mind, with two wins on the board.

High penalties

A key area holding the Diamonds back has been the lopsided penalty count.

New Zealand has conceded 100 penalties so far, while Australia has conceded 145. That's a lot of time standing beside your player, unable to contribute to play.

What didn't help in the second game was the repeated offensive contacts called against the shooters, as they pushed off the body of Kiwi defender Kelly Jackson, trying to get free.

Donnell Wallam was called four times in 11 minutes of play. Sophie Garbin was called three times across 50 minutes. Kiera Austin tallied up to 12 penalties to finish as the third-most penalised Diamonds player on the night.

As per the typical etiquette in international netball, two neutral umpires have been appointed to officiate the series: Welsh umpire Alison Harrison and English umpire Gary Burgess.

"We had some offensive contacts, so we've just got to seek some clarification from the umpires as to what it is they're seeing so we can adjust for that in the future," Marinkovich said post-play.

"The fact that we also rotated our whole defence line from wing defence to the keeper, I don't think that we're that ill-disciplined throughout the entire unit and we've got to understand what it is that we're doing so we can adjust.

"In history, for the last four years, we've been penalised in New Zealand and it kind of shifts when we're in Australia … But I don't think our game plan changes too differently."

That's an interesting observation as the umpires' calls should be consistent no matter where a game is played. But Silver Ferns captain Karin Burger had a similar thought.

"Obviously, knowing that Australia has the home crowd next and 50/50 calls always tend to go in the home side's way, it means the scrap is going to be even harder," Burger said.

"Later in the series there's going to be more tired bodies and defenders are going to need to be really smart about their line to the ball … so that we're contesting clean ball."

How much it means

The scary part is how much New Zealand is gunning for the trophy.

The Silver Ferns have already been brimming with confidence and head coach Noeline Taurua said they believed the Constellation Cup was just as big a pinnacle as the Commonwealth Games gold they won in August.

"You always have that trans-Tasman rivalry, and you've got to back up four straight outings against the one team," Taurua said.

"It is definitely the battle of the minds and the hearts and the bodies."

ABC Sport will live blog game three of the Constellation Cup in Sydney, starting at 4pm AEDT.