Dr. Azmi Bishara has said US President Donald Trump is backing Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel's election because the two are partners in the war with Iran and share a wider regional agenda.
Speaking to Al-Araby TV ahead of Israel's 27 October vote, the Arab thinker said Trump wanted Netanyahu to remain in power in order to "complete the mission" they had begun together.
He argued that there was little fundamental difference between Israel's main governing and opposition blocs on Palestinian statehood or the country's broader regional posture.
Bishara said much of the campaign instead revolved around security, the failures surrounding the 7 October 2023 attacks, military conscription and who could project greater military strength.
Israel's election is currently too close to produce an obvious governing majority, with recent polling placing Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition coalition roughly level.
Arab turnout 'critical'
Bishara said Palestinian citizens of Israel nevertheless had a major stake in the election.
He argued that growing efforts to delegitimise Arab political participation made turnout particularly important and described the vote as a decisive moment for Palestinian citizens.
Bishara said higher participation could help block another government led by Netanyahu alongside far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
He suggested Eisenkot's Yashar party could finish first but still struggle to form a government without support from Arab parties.
That possibility has become central to the campaign, with Palestinian parties potentially holding the balance of power if neither bloc reaches the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority.
Bishara also said Washington favoured the idea of a unity government bringing Netanyahu and Eisenkot together, although he believed such an arrangement would be difficult to achieve.
Iran: settlement or renewed war
Turning to Iran, Bishara said the region was approaching a decisive point.
He argued that the present stand-off between Washington and Tehran could not continue indefinitely and would ultimately end either in a settlement or renewed war.
Bishara said Iran wanted tangible confidence-building measures, including access to frozen funds or sanctions relief, while Washington wanted concessions it could present domestically as a clear victory.
Qatar remains involved in mediation between the two sides, with Qatari and Pakistani mediators submitting a new proposal this week aimed at preventing renewed conflict.
Bishara said mistrust remained deep and warned that a failure by either side to make a meaningful move could push the region back towards conflict after the US midterms.
Yemen and US politics
On Yemen, Bishara said the Houthis could not govern the country alone, but equally could not be excluded from any future political settlement.
He said the best basis for resolving the conflict remained the outcomes of Yemen's national dialogue process.
The assessment comes as fighting has again intensified in Yemen between the Houthis and forces aligned with the internationally recognised government.
Bishara also turned to the US midterm elections on 3 November, saying he expected Republicans to lose their majority in the House of Representatives while the Senate remained less predictable.
Recent reporting has likewise found that Democrats are in a stronger position to retake the House, while control of the Senate remains more contested.
Bishara said a younger generation of progressive Democrats represented a deeper shift inside the party, highlighting New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
The midterms are also exposing growing divisions over Israel and the Iran war, with several closely watched Senate races turning on foreign policy as well as domestic economic concerns.
Bishara argued that the elections would test both Trump's domestic political strength and divisions within the American right over foreign policy, Israel and the Iran war.