A mediator who met with Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in September 2023 says he relayed a direct warning to Israeli security officials, but neither he nor the authorities anticipated the scale of the October 7 massacre. The ISA received an explicit warning from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar weeks before the October 7th massacre according to testimony published by journalist Emmanuelle Elbaz-Phelps following an interview with Palestinian mediator Sufian Abu Zaydeh for French news magazine Le Point.
Abu Zaydeh said he informed Israeli security officials about a message Sinwar had asked him to convey following a meeting on September 14, 2023, less than a month before Hamas launched its devastating attack on southern Israel. According to his account, Sinwar warned that before the end of September, events would create an “earthquake" in negotiations and urged Israel to prepare for the release of Palestinian prisoners.
Sinwar's message was particularly significant because, according to Abu Zaydeh, it was not simply a public threat. Sinwar specifically instructed him to deliver the warning to Israel and confirm that it had been received. Abu Zaydeh wrote down the message in a notebook during the meeting. After leaving Sinwar's office, he retrieved his phone and smartwatch, which he had left outside, and contacted Palestinian political figure Mohammed Dahlan before reaching out to the ISA. In both conversations, he was asked whether Sinwar had explicitly instructed him to pass the message to Israel.
“He insisted. He told me, ‘You have to pass it on and report back to me that the message was delivered. Sinwar wasn't just making threats. He set a date: by the end of the month," Abu Zaydeh said.
Despite the warning, however, Abu Zaydeh acknowledged that he himself had not understood the magnitude of the operation Sinwar was planning. In retrospect, he believes Israeli security officials took the threat seriously but failed to anticipate the scale of the attack.
“I think they believed that at most, 30 or 40 people would enter from Gaza, kidnap a soldier and return," he said. “I thought that, too."
Abu Zaydeh also said he had initially considered the possibility that Sinwar was planning a kidnapping operation in Judea and Samaria rather than a large-scale infiltration from the Gaza Strip. He imagined a prepared Hamas cell carrying out a targeted abduction.
According to Abu Zaydeh, Israeli security officials were aware of his relationship with Sinwar. He said he regularly informed both Dahlan and the ISA whenever he met with the Hamas leader. The updates were motivated partly by personal concerns: he feared that an Israeli strike on Sinwar's office while he was visiting could put his own life at risk.
Abu Zaydeh's relationship with Sinwar began when the two were imprisoned, and their subsequent connection developed into a channel for mediation with Israel. Asked why he had interpreted Sinwar's warning as a possible kidnapping operation, Abu Zaydeh explained that the Hamas leader had repeatedly focused on securing the release of Palestinian prisoners.
“Sinwar spoke about releasing prisoners. He wanted to strengthen the cards in his hand. Two bodies, in his view, weren't enough," he said.