Customers shop at a grocery store on Sept. 10, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
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Wednesday's closely watched reading on consumer prices could show intensifying inflationary pressures as energy costs keep climbing.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the headline consumer price index for September to rise 0.6% for the month and to increase 3.6% compared with a year ago. That 12-month number would signal that the rate of price growth is accelerating and moving further from the Federal Reserve's goal of 2%.
So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 0.2% from August and 2.5% on a 12-month basis. While that would mark a slight slowdown from the prior month, it would be an uptick in year-over-year inflation.
Upside risk
Oil-related prices could drive the headline figure even higher, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax firm.
Energy costs have been among the biggest drivers of inflation since the U.S. war with Iran began earlier this year. President Donald Trump last week announced loosened diesel restrictions on Russia in a bid to juice the global oil trade, though analysts don't believe it will meaningfully bring down prices.
Prices for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed more than 14% in September, bringing its third-quarter advance to about 42%. Brent prices on Tuesday traded around $105 per barrel.
"We've got real upside risk on the September CPI," Brusuelas said. "Typically, when we have these moves in inflation, everyone's models undershoot the actual outcome."
Sticky oil prices could also push up costs for items in other, non-energy categories, according to Robert Sockin, chief U.S. economist at asset manager PGIM. In this scenario, it would become harder for the Fed to write off the energy prices surge as a short-term shock that won't necessitate interest rate increases.
After announcing its first increase in three years last month, the Federal Reserve signaled in its minutes from that meeting that it will likely have to hike rates again. Fed funds futures traders anticipate the central bank will next lift rates at its December policy meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
"The list of reasons to hike rates in our view is long," Sockin said. "Ultimately, we have low confidence in the timing of the Fed's next move, but more conviction on the direction of travel."
Wednesday's release is the last reading on CPI before November's midterm elections, which could determine whether the Republican party will keep total control in Washington.
Economic confidence across political affiliation has fallen this year, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment data. Compared with Democrats, Republican and independent voters have posted steeper declines in sentiment since the start of 2026, the data shows.
Economists forecast that the producer price index, a gauge of inflation facing wholesalers due on Thursday, will rise 0.6% from August to September and 5.5% on a 12-month basis. Both of those numbers would mark a modest acceleration in growth compared with August's release.