Pakistan’s power purchase price is projected to climb to Rs. 27.309 per kilowatt-hour in calendar year 2027, with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Limited estimating a total procurement cost of Rs. 3.55 trillion under its base-case scenario for the upcoming tariff rebasing.
The projections form part of the rebasing of consumer-end electricity tariffs for ex-Wapda distribution companies, scheduled to take effect from January 1, 2027. The exercise will determine the revised reference costs underpinning electricity tariffs for the new period.
According to CPPA-G’s forecast, the projected power purchase price ranges from Rs. 25.883 per unit under the ideal scenario to Rs. 29.255 per unit under the second-worst-case scenario, reflecting the potential impact of fuel costs, exchange-rate movements and capacity payments on the electricity supply chain.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority has scheduled a public hearing on the projections for November 3, 2026, at Nepra Tower in Islamabad, with participation also available online. Interested and affected parties have been invited to submit their comments and objections.
Under the base case, CPPA-G has assumed annual electricity demand growth of 2.60 percent, an exchange rate of Rs. 279 per US dollar and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours to distribution companies.
Capacity charges account for the largest share of the projected cost, estimated at Rs. 1.91 trillion, equivalent to Rs. 14.717 per unit. Fuel costs are projected at Rs. 1.32 trillion, or Rs. 10.141 per unit, while variable operations and maintenance expenses are estimated at Rs. 70.58 billion, equivalent to Rs. 0.543 per unit.
Transmission-related costs and Ministry of Finance charges are projected at a combined Rs. 248.30 billion, or Rs. 1.909 per unit. The forecast indicates that capacity payments will remain a major component of electricity procurement costs, while fuel expenses and currency movements could further influence the overall price during 2027.
In the two worst-case scenarios, the rupee is assumed to weaken to Rs. 290 against the US dollar, compared with Rs. 279 per dollar in the other scenarios. Under these assumptions, the projected purchase price rises to Rs. 28.835 per unit in Worst Case-I and Rs. 29.255 per unit in Worst Case-II.
The demand-sensitivity scenario, meanwhile, assumes annual demand growth of just 0.70 percent, reducing electricity sales to 127,937 GWh. Under this scenario, the projected purchase price stands at Rs. 27.568 per unit, reflecting the effect of lower sales volumes and revised capacity-cost assumptions.
A separate scenario examining the mix of re-gasified liquefied natural gas and gas places the projected purchase price at Rs. 26.441 per unit, while the ideal scenario estimates the cost at Rs. 25.883 per unit, primarily reflecting lower fuel expenses.
Across all six scenarios, the assumptions include a Karachi Interbank Offered Rate of 11.70 percent, a Secured Overnight Financing Rate of 3.98 percent, US inflation of 2.10 percent, domestic inflation of 8.20 percent and National Grid Company losses of 2.50 percent.
The projected power purchase price will be subject to regulatory scrutiny as part of the rebasing process. The forecast should not be interpreted as the final retail electricity tariff, which will depend on Nepra’s determinations and applicable taxes, duties, subsidies and other tariff components.
The November 3 hearing is expected to provide an opportunity for stakeholders to present their views on the assumptions and cost projections that will inform the revised consumer-end tariff framework from January 2027.
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