The Aemet state weather agency has issued warnings in light of the heavy rainfall expected along the Mediterranean coast this weekend. The first phenomenon will ... be a trough over mainland Spain, followed by the likely isolation of a cold air mass to the north of it, which will lead to increased atmospheric instability.
At the same time, a high-pressure system around the British Isles and the North Sea will facilitate the influx of a mass of cold air, leading to a widespread drop in temperatures.
A moist air mass will settle over coastal and near-coastal areas, meaning that heavy and persistent rainfall is likely in parts of the Balearic Islands and along the Mediterranean side of mainland Spain.
Aemet has warned that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the position of the 'dana' (cold drop) and the trough and the distribution and amount of any potential rainfall.
Generally speaking, heavy downpours and storms will begin on Saturday, but will initially affect the Cantabrian coast, parts of the interior, the Balearic Islands and the northern Mediterranean coast. By Sunday, the heaviest rainfall will shift to the coast, the coastal plain and the interior areas of the Mediterranean in southern Spain, with heavy rainfall that could be persistent and result in significant accumulated totals. Temperatures will fall markedly.
How will this affect Malaga province?
According to local weather epert José Luis Escudero, it is still difficult to predict the effect these conditions will have on Malaga province. The mesoscale due to be published on Friday, will allow for a more precise prediction of the days and times when the heaviest downpours will occur between Saturday and Monday.
Based on what is known so far, on Saturday, rain is likely in the afternoon and evening, particularly in the interior of the province, in Antequera and the Serranía de Ronda. In Malaga city and along the coast, rain is not expected until the late hours of Saturday night.
From the early hours of Sunday morning onwards, rainfall will spread across the whole province, including the city of Malaga and coastal areas. "Rain is most likely to be heavy in the western Costa del Sol: Marbella, Estepona, Fuengirola and Torremolinos," Escudero said, adding Rincón de la Victoria to this list.
"These showers will be heavy at times, although there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the highest rainfall totals," he said. On Monday, the showers will continue, ranging from moderate to heavy along the entire coast, although they are less likely in the interior.
At the same time, temperatures will already be around the average for this time of year, with cool nights and early mornings and maximum temperatures hovering around 22-23C on Sunday. Gone are the temperatures of up to 30C that we've seen even this week.
"From Friday night onwards, we'll know for sure whether we'll need to open our umbrellas or keep them closed…" Escudero concluded.