New Zealand's brain drain across the Tasman appears to be easing, with new figures showing fewer Kiwis are leaving our shores.
In the year to March there was a net loss of 27,900 people to Australia, down from 31,100 in the previous year.
Infometrics lead demographer Nick Brunsden told RNZ's Morning Report New Zealand had always been what he calls an "exporter of people", but numbers had been much higher in recent years.
"We're starting to see that number come down, we're still losing more Kiwis than we're getting back, and that's probably going to stay, but it is just getting that little bit better."
Brunsden said employment continued to be a key factor in why people decided to make a move across the Tasman, with unemployment numbers slightly lower in Australia.
"There's about a percentage point difference between the unemployment rates of each country, which means that all else being equal, you're going to have better job opportunities in Australia. But that gap's just starting to close. We're expecting it to be more like 0.5% apart within the next one to two years.
"Australia will still be the stronger country, but when that unemployment rate changes, that seems to encourage fewer people to leave for Australia, and it also encourages a few Kiwis to come back," Brunsden said.
"We have seen quite strong departures of under-15s and people in the early 30s over the last couple of years, which is a little bit different.
"That does suggest people were taking their families to Australia, and so perhaps those people might be a bit more sticky, they might be a bit more settled in Australia and a bit less likely to come back even as New Zealand's labour market improves."
He says New Zealand hasn't always been the cheapest country, but times have been tougher.
"I think we had some quite high inflation over the last few years, that's encouraged people to look a bit closer at what the cost of living that they're facing is, and I think that's encouraged a few more of those families over to Australia, certainly in the last two or so years."
"They haven't faced the same sort of downturn that we have.
"They're just at a different point, so their Reserve Bank has been setting interest rates at a higher level. They've been trying to tame things a bit more aggressively than our Reserve Bank.
"So that means that at the point that we're starting to recover, they're potentially heading into a little bit of a softer period. So that mismatch in timing is potentially to our advantage."
