Aviation experts have warned public sector officials buying Doncaster Sheffield Airport of the prospect of a 'multi-year delay' to regular passenger flights from the site.
Oliver Coppard’s South Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority is close to confirming a deal to purchase DSA from current owner Peel for an undisclosed sum as part of ongoing efforts to reopen the airport, which closed in 2022.
It is an alternative to the current arrangement in which City of Doncaster Council is leasing the land from Peel while the site is prepared for reopening.
When the purchase plan was announced at a press conference on Monday afternoon, officials said the change wouldn’t affect the reopening timetable which aims for freight flights by autumn 2027 and passenger services in spring 2028.
But they have now told The Yorkshire Post that the dates are “an ambition rather than a commitment” after new information came to light.
New SYMCA board papers published shortly after Monday’s press conference have now revealed details of new work conducted by an unnamed aviation business planning firm on behalf of the authority. The firm modelled high, base and low case scenarios.
It said the experts considered the base and low-case scenarios as “most likely to occur” - with the latter involving current economic challenges causing “a multi-year delay before commercial airlines begin to use the airport in a significant way”.
But it added that freight demand is stronger than previously assumed, even in the low-case scenario. The ‘base case’ scenario involves commercial passenger flights starting more quickly and freight demand remaining strong. The high-case scenario suggests DSA could benefit “from a period of consolidation from airlines”, resulting in more airlines being based there.
It said: “Advisers suggest that the low and base scenarios are most likely to occur.”
The report said that “in all scenarios the airport will make losses in early years as costs outstrip revenues before this is corrected over time as market-share increases”.
The 28-page report states elsewhere: “Programme timelines have been tested, and the results suggest that, despite much positive progress, significant focus will continue to be required to deliver on the ambition of freight flights from autumn 2027 and commercial passenger flights from spring 2028.”
It also states a review of progress against key milestones “was unable to provide evidenced assurance on the ability to meet target dates”.
The majority of the documents relating to the plan to open the airport, which are due to be discussed by the SYMCA board next week, have not been made public - including papers on financial modelling , exit strategy, a risk report, DSA Business Plan scenarios and one entitled ‘Achieving the Business Case’.
A SYMCA spokesperson told The Yorkshire Post: “We continue to work hard to ensure that the airport will be ready for passenger flights by 2028 but that remains an ambition rather than a commitment. We are determined to ensure that commercial decisions are taken that set the airport up for long-term success.”
Executives have forecast that consistently higher fares will reduce customer demand and are scaling back growth plans as well as cutting millions of flights to save on costs.
Luís Rodrigues, chief executive of TAP Air Portugal , said: “I think we are in for a tough three to five years.”
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said the industry is facing a “full-blown crisis” and added: “Everybody is going to be hurting next year.”