The ministry's intelligence review points to growing friction between Washington and Kyiv as battlefield intensity rises alongside the stalled energy ceasefire.
Speaking at the regular Ministry of Defense Friday press conference, Gert Kaju, head of the ministry's defense readiness department, said a number of significant events had taken place at the strategic level over the past week. He said it became known last Friday that the U.S. had issued the Russian Federation a temporary permit to supply diesel fuel to its market and to the global markets. "According to the expectations of the U.S. leadership, Russia should supply 3 million tons of diesel fuel as quickly as possible, which the U.S. leadership believes should lead to a decline in fuel prices on the U.S. domestic market," Kaju said.
Just over a week earlier the U.S. president had announced a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia so far as attacks on energy facilities went, but it later emerged that this was a ceasefire arrangement which neither side had agreed to.
Ukraine did attempt to observe the energy ceasefire and refrained from striking Russian oil refineries for three days on the condition that Russia stop attacking Ukraine's electricity generation facilities and transmission networks.
Russia, however, interpreted the agreement as a suspension of attacks only on oil refineries and fuel transportation infrastructure only, and continued striking Ukraine's energy infrastructure. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the energy ceasefire proposed by President Donald Trump had not been specified in detail.
The U.S.-Russia diesel supply agreement drew international criticism, some of it from Kyiv. In response, the U.S. raised the question of the need to hold elections and change the government in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to hold elections on the condition that a 60-day ceasefire be established, but Moscow refused. Russia's leadership believed Ukraine would use the ceasefire to rebuild its forces, and according to Peskov, Moscow was prepared to establish a ceasefire for only 24 hours.
Since Russia had not observed the energy ceasefire, President Zelenskyy announced on October 15 that Ukraine would resume strikes against Russian oil refineries, saying it would be prepared to consider suspending such strikes only if it received assistance in strengthening its missile defense capabilities.
Ukraine counterattacked in the Lyman and Sloviansk sectors in Donetsk oblast
Nearly 230 combat engagements took place per day on the front line over the past week, a rise on the previous week. The most intense fighting took place in Donetsk oblast in the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka directions, followed by the Huliaipole direction in Zaporizhzhia oblast, the Southern Slobozhanshchyna direction in Kharkiv oblast and the Lyman sector in Donetsk oblast.
Ukrainian counterattacks took place mainly in the Lyman and Sloviansk directions in Donetsk oblast, the Oleksandrivka area in Dnipropetrovsk oblast and in Sumy oblast. Ukrainian forces pushed back Russian units in the Sloviansk and Kramatorsk sections and strengthened the front line in that sector.
The Russian armed forces' objective remains to reach the borders of Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and restore their positions in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, while simultaneously attempting to expand the territory under their control in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. At the same time, the Russian Federation lost an average of 1,600 military personnel per day. Russian armed forces' losses remained above 10,000 troops per week, marking the seventh consecutive week that losses had reached this level, the ministry said.
The fighting was also accompanied by extensive airstrikes despite the recent stalled truce. The Russian Federation attacked various targets in at least 19 Ukrainian oblasts (out of a total of 24). Targets of long-range precision strikes included critical infrastructure, residential buildings, government, commercial, educational and medical institutions, the transportation system, the fuel industry and the energy system.
Russia intensively attacks energy infrastructure
The number of strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure has steadily increased in recent weeks and multiplied in Kyiv. Between October 4 and 11, Russia attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure 196 times and its fuel infrastructure 20 times, while Ukrainian energy workers restored electricity supplies to 1.9 million households.
Intensive attacks continued overnight on October 13-14 in Kyiv and Kharkiv oblasts, where 26 energy infrastructure facilities were damaged, including three combined heat and power plants in Kyiv, and according to President Zelenskyy, 600,000 people were left without electricity.
Ukraine responded with extensive long-range strikes. Between October 8 and 10, attacks hit Russian oil refineries in Omsk oblast, Bashkortostan and the Komi Republic, an oil terminal in Rostov oblast and a distribution station in Samara oblast. Attacks resumed on October 15, when a long-range strike hit the Ryazan oil refinery.
In the 242nd week of the war, Ukrainian long-range strikes targeted Yandex data centers in Ryazan, Kaluga and Vladimir oblasts and a Sberbank data center in Saratov oblast for the first time.
Ukraine also attacked companies important to Russia's military-industrial complex in Tver, Nizhny Novgorod and Rostov oblasts, as well as military targets and transport routes in occupied and border areas.
Away from the front line, Russia continued its hybrid activities against countries supporting Ukraine. The Danish Security and Intelligence Service also warned that Russia had launched operations against Danish companies supporting Ukraine in repelling the aggression.
"At the same time, the Finnish Security Intelligence Service noted that Russia poses a real, although not yet immediate, threat to the country's defense industry, which the agency considers an expected development, as Finnish companies operate in the same security environment as the rest of Europe," Kaju added.
--
Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!