Berlin, October 17th, 2026 (The Berlin Spectator) – Millions of Germans smoke in spite of the health risks that are connected to this activity. Even though a cigarette addiction might be easier to overcome than drug or alcohol dependencies, far too many people refuse to give it up. Higher cigarette prices might change some smokers’ minds.
After the Bundestag, the Bundesrat voted for a step the federal government calls a “tobacco tax reform”. The measure really is a series of tax hikes. Cigarettes are rather expensive already. Soon, their price will be even higher.
In 2002, a pack of 20 cigarettes in Germany cost three Euro. By 2012, the price had increased to five Euro. Yes, the tobacco industry is greedy, but most of the price hike happened due to the fact that the state was even more avaricious and kept on increasing the tobacco tax.
Main Goal
Then, in 2016, a pack of cigarettes by premium brands like Marlboro cost six Euro, in 2020 it was seven Euro. Three years ago, in 2023, the price rose to eight, in 2025 to nine Euro. Right now, smokers pay 9.40 Euro for 20 branded cigarettes. This price is still harmless compared to the level they have to expect.
By increasing the tobacco tax, Germany will probably decrease the number of smokers and deter young people. Officially, this is the measure’s main goal. At the same time, fiscal revenue will rise, because smokers, who already pay VAT on every pack, will also bear the new tobacco tax. The tobacco companies do not pay this rising tax. They pass it on to the consumer.
Next year, the average price for a pack of 20 cigarettes will be 9.05 Euro. Well-known brands will be charging even more while budget cigarettes offered by certain supermarket chains are going to cost a bit less. In 2028, the average price per pack is expected to jump to almost ten Euro or 50 Euro Cents per cigarette. Until 2030, it will be almost twelve Euro, according to a projection by the Ministry of Finance in Berlin.
Sad Number
It is hard to argue against the health effect the tobacco tax increase is expected to have. Every year, 130,000 people in Germany die of illnesses caused by tobacco consumption. Decreasing this sad number even just a little is definitely the right thing to do.
The secondary effect of the “tobacco tax reform” is an increase of Germany’s fiscal revenue by twelve billion Euro within the next four years. This assumes that the price hike does not drive smokers to the black market on which illegally imported cigarettes are a lot cheaper.