The numbers reveal an Ohio State running game that’s better than it looks

There are few things more beautiful in the history of college football than an Ohio State running back in the open field. From Les Horvath and Hopalong Cassady to Archie Griffin and Keith Byars to Eddie George, Ezekiel Elliott, J.K. Dobbins, and TreVeyon Henderson, Buckeye fans have been spoiled by decades of running backs capable of turning an otherwise ordinary play into a touchdown before the defense even has a chance to realize that it has been left in a cloud of dust.

Even in the modern era, when passing has become an increasingly important aspect of offensive philosophy, we’ve grown accustomed to Ohio State having at least one back capable of breaking a game open with a single carry. So, as the 2026 Buckeyes have struggled to produce those same explosive runs, it has understandably led to some concerns about whether the ground game is good enough for this team to compete for a national championship.

However, after spending the majority of my holiday off work on Monday digging through the rushing stats from the Buckeyes’ first six games, I’ve come to a somewhat different conclusion: This year’s Ohio State running game might not be capable of consistently delivering game-breaking plays, but it has settled into a surprisingly useful middle ground between explosive and ineffective. And given what Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith are capable of doing through the air, that might be all the Scarlet and Gray needs.

The average doesn’t tell the whole story

Through Saturday’s 45-16 win over Maryland, Ohio State has recorded 217 rushing attempts for 1,067 yards, excluding sacks and kneel-downs. That works out to an average of 4.92 yards per carry, which is certainly respectable, if not particularly awe-inspiring by historical Buckeye standards.

But averages can be deceptive, especially when discussing running backs. A player who gains two yards on four carries and then breaks a 30-yarder is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, despite spending most of his afternoon getting nowhere.

That’s why I wanted to look at the median — the middle result when every rushing attempt is arranged from shortest to longest — to get a better sense of what Ohio State’s typical run actually produces.

Five of Ohio State’s six games have featured a median rushing gain of exactly four yards. Even against Texas, when the Buckeyes averaged just 3.72 yards per carry, the typical run gained four yards. Meanwhile, the 7.55-yard average against Ball State was significantly inflated by three runs totaling 138 yards.

To me, that suggests the ground game’s underlying production is more stable than the traditional averages might indicate. The offense isn’t necessarily getting dramatically better at running the ball every week, but it has consistently demonstrated an ability to produce useful yardage, and there is a pretty substantial difference between those two things. The running game hasn’t necessarily become more explosive or even demonstrably more efficient, but the Buckeyes seem to be developing a clearer understanding of exactly what they can expect from it.

If the passing game is routinely providing explosive, home run plays, while it would be nice if the rushing attack was as well, what its job ultimately becomes is to put the offense in advantageous enough down-and-distance positions to take bigger chances.

In advanced analytics, a play is considered successful if it gains at least 50% of the yards needed for a first down on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down. So, while a four-yard run on first-and-10 doesn’t technically qualify as a successful play by that definition, it does put Ohio State in a far more advantageous position than a run that gains nothing, and that can be a pretty big deal for an offense with so many explosive passing options.

Four yards might be all Ohio State needs

Now, let’s be clear: I’m not suggesting that a four-yard run should have us preparing a Heisman campaign for whichever Jackson happens to be carrying the football. However, there is something to be said for regularly turning first-and-10 into second-and-6 instead of second-and-10. The problem is that runs gaining two yards or fewer are still considerably more common than those producing explosive gains.

Of those 217 attempts on the season, only 23 have gained at least 10 yards, and just nine have gone for 15 or more. Nineteen rushes have lost yardage, while another 50 have gained anywhere from zero to two yards. Admittedly, that doesn’t differentiate between short-yardage sneaks that might have been considered successful by picking up only 1 or 2 yards.

Distribution of Ohio State’s rushing attempts

Nonetheless, more than 57% of Ohio State’s rushing attempts have gained between three and nine yards. That’s not exactly a highlight reel waiting to happen, but it is the kind of production that can keep an offense on schedule, create manageable third downs, and prevent defenses from treating every snap as an obvious passing situation.

The concern, of course, is at the opposite end of the distribution. That 32% of carries that have gained two yards or fewer represents far too many plays effectively going nowhere, particularly when Ohio State finds itself in situations where the defense knows a run is coming.

So, no, this is clearly neither a consistently dominant rushing attack nor a grindingly successful one, but I do think there’s evidence that it has established a fairly functional foundation upon which the offense can build.

The Jacksons don’t have to be Elliott and Dobbins

While evaluating the entire rushing attack is useful, focusing specifically on Bo and Ja’Kobi Jackson — a.k.a. The Jacksons — provides an even clearer picture of what Ohio State is getting from its primary running backs.

Through six games, the two have combined for 814 yards on 148 attempts, a relatively impressive 5.50 yards per carry. Ja’Kobi’s 6 ypc puts him at ninth in the Big Ten for the season, while Bo’s 5.17 is good for 18th. Combined, they would be good enough for 13th in the league.

However, remove their 65- and 49-yard runs against Ball State, and that average drops to 4.79. While that isn’t how football statistics work, it is noteworthy what a substantial drop subtracting just two runs can have on averages.

What interests me most is the relatively narrow range of their production over the past three games. Against Illinois, Iowa, and Maryland, the Jacksons have averaged 5.19, 4.73, and 4.95 yards per carry, respectively.

Those aren’t numbers that will get anyone a tree in Buckeye Grove, but they’re perfectly reasonable returns for an offense with Ohio State’s passing capabilities. And perhaps more importantly, both backs are increasingly bringing a physicality and willingness to grind out difficult yards that this team will clearly need as the competition intensifies.

No one is going to confuse this tandem with the program’s most explosive backfields, but I am increasingly of the belief that they don’t have to be those guys to help win a championship, especially with the historically productive passing connection between Sayin and Smith.

Julian Sayin is becoming a useful rushing weapon, too

While Sayin’s primary job is obviously to get the ball to Jeremiah Smith, one of the more intriguing developments for the offense in recent weeks has been the quarterback’s willingness to use his legs. Through the first three games, Sayin recorded just four non-sack rushing attempts for a total of 11 yards.

Against Illinois, Iowa, and Maryland, that increased to 17 attempts for 75 yards, for 4.4 yards per carry. That’s a fairly significant change in how the offense is deploying its quarterback.

Julian Sayin’s rushing production

Nobody is going to mistake Sayin for Braxton Miller or Justin Fields as a runner, and frankly, I would prefer that he continue doing the vast majority of his damage with his arm. However, a quarterback who can pick up four or five yards when a play breaks down, or convert third-and-1 with a quick keeper, adds another layer of complexity for opposing defenses.

Against Illinois, Sayin converted multiple short-yardage situations with his legs. He added an important third-and-1 conversion against Iowa and picked up a fourth-and-1 against Maryland. We’ve seen him be successful on sneaks, scrambles, and even naked bootlegs, meaning that opposing defenses will now — for the first time since Will Howard — have to account for the Ohio State quarterback in the ground game.

None of Sayin’s rushing attempts were exactly highlight-reel material, but they are exactly the sort of modest gains that can be the difference between extending a drive and sending the punting unit onto the field for another underwhelming kick.

But what is arguably even more important about Sayin’s newfound willingness to run in all circumstances is that by forcing defenders to pay attention to the possibility, it can lead to bigger holes for the Jacksons and fewer men in coverage for Smith and the rest of the receivers.

It’s about complementing greatness, not replicating it

Ultimately, I think this year’s running backs require us to recalibrate our expectations for what an Ohio State rushing attack needs to be. For years, the Buckeyes have enjoyed the luxury of having legitimate game-breaking threats in both the running and passing games. There were times when they could simply hand the football to an NFL-caliber running back and expect something extraordinary to happen. That is not yet the case this season (although, perhaps Legend Bey could become that, if given the opportunity).

Fortunately, Ohio State already possesses extraordinary explosiveness in its passing game, headlined by the Sayin-to-Smith connection. That means that the Buckeyes don’t necessarily need the running game to produce the same kind of fireworks that it has in the recent and historic past. It needs the ground attack to keep defenses honest, create advantageous down-and-distance situations, and provide another way to move the chains when the passing game encounters resistance against better competition, which it will begin doing this weekend in Bloomington.

That doesn’t mean that the running game is a finished product, or that its occasional inability to generate positive yardage won’t become a serious issue against Indiana, Oregon, or Michigan. In fact, the percentage of runs gaining two yards or fewer is a reminder that there is still considerable work to be done by both the backs and the offensive line.

But I also think there is a tendency among Ohio State fans — and I certainly include myself in this — to measure every new offense against an idealized version of what we’ve seen before. And anything short of perfection is considered a red flag destined to prevent them from achieving their ultimate goals.

But the Buckeyes don’t need Bo Jackson to become Ezekiel Elliott or Ja’Kobi Jackson to become TreVeyon Henderson. They need both to continue finding four or five yards when the offense calls upon them, and — a few times per game — they need Sayin to keep defenses from getting too comfortable by picking up a first down or otherwise valuable yardage.

With all of the explosive weapons Ohio State already has through the air, the ground game doesn’t need to be responsible for producing the extraordinary moments. Sometimes, the most valuable thing a running back can do is make the next extraordinary moment a little easier to achieve.