Why Trump and the GOP's billion-dollar midterm blitz isn’t working

WASILLA, ALASKA - OCTOBER 13: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during an election rally at the Menard Memorial Sports Center on October 13, 2026 in Wasilla, Alaska. President Trump is in Alaska campaigning for local Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

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A billion-dollar war chest was meant to be Republicans' great equalizer heading into a bleak midterm election environment defined by economic frustration, President Donald Trump's unpopularity and fallout from the war in Iran.

So far it hasn't worked.

From Labor Day through Oct 14., GOP groups injected more than $740 million into congressional races that will determine control of Congress, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data. That includes at least $220 million in spending from Trump-linked groups. Elon Musk has separately given another $276 million to Republican groups since July and helped boost the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund super PAC to a record quarter.

Yet with less than three weeks until the Nov. 3 Election Day, the spending blitz has barely moved the map. Democrats lead in FiftyPlusOne's polling averages across nine of the Senate's most competitive races – Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – little changed from before the Republican spending spree. Minnesota was expected to be solidly blue, making its tight race a concern for Democrats.

And Republican political operatives and independent election observers CNBC spoke with say the money hasn't had the effects its magnitude would be expected to in voter sentiment.

Meanwhile, the broader battlefield continues to deteriorate for Republicans. Democrats are favored to flip the House and remain competitive in the Senate, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, forcing the GOP to burn millions protecting once-safe seats while abandoning former pickup targets.

"Money is an amplifier, not a magic wand," said Neil Newhouse, partner at Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. "You can buy all the airtime in the world, but if the political climate is blowing 30 miles an hour in your face, ad volume alone isn't going to turn the weather around."

The new stickers can be seen as people go to Beulah Heights University to cast their vote on the first day of early voting on October 13, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia.

Megan Varner | Getty Images

Republicans entered the final stretch of the midterm election with unusually deep pockets.

MAGA Inc. had nearly $416 million on hand at the end of August, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Across the broader ecosystem, major Republican organizations had roughly $1 billion available, eclipsing the $579 million available for comparable Democratic groups, according to a CNBC analysis of Federal Election Commission filings.

Then came Musk — after saying he'd be less involved in this year's election. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO has given more than $276 million to Republican groups since July, including $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund Republican-boosting super PAC and more than $76 million to his own America PAC, according to figures confirmed to CNBC by an America PAC spokesperson. Musk's known federal political giving this election cycle now totals roughly $366 million, making him the largest known donor of the midterms.

And Musk is far from alone. Nine of the 10 largest individual and family donor groups this cycle are Republican-aligned, accounting for 86 cents of every dollar contributed by the top 10, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC records.

"We are watching an unprecedented concentration and scale of political influence and wealth this election cycle," said Hilary Braseth, executive director of OpenSecrets, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that tracks campaign spending.

AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political advertising this 2025-2026 cycle, surpassing both the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of X, formerly known as Twitter, speaks during National Design Studio's launch event for America.gov, a new AI-powered government website, at the Mellon Auditorium in Washington, D.C., US, Sept. 29, 2026.

Kylie Cooper | Reuters

However, the size of Republicans’ financial advantage may overstate how much advertising that money can actually buy.

That's because much of the GOP's money, particularly spending by Trump-aligned groups, has arrived late and via super PACs, which can pay far more for airtime than candidates. Federal law entitles candidates to broadcasters' lowest unit rate during the final 60 days before a general election; outside groups get no such protection.

It's an edge for Democrats whose candidates have generally outraised their Republican counterparts.

In Dallas, for example, Democrat James Talarico's campaign spent about $2.4 million on local broadcast ads from Oct. 1 through Oct. 14, enough for the average viewer to see his ads about 48 times, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data. The pro-Ken Paxton Texas PAC spent about $7.8 million for roughly 81 views per viewer – more than three times as much money for only about 70% more exposure, according to the analysis.

Airtime has become so expensive that Paxton's allies have begun buying ads during national sporting events, calculating that reaching enough Texans through a national broadcast can cost less than buying across the state's local television markets, according to the Associated Press.

"R money advantage not what it appears to be on [the] surface,"  Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who lost to Paxton in the primary, posted on X on Oct. 5. 

Across the nine key Senate battlegrounds identified by the Cook Political Report as of Oct. 1, Republicans led broadcast TV spending in seven and outspent Democrats by 26% overall through Sept. 30, yet generated only 7% more airings.

To be sure, super PACs don't face the same pricing disadvantage on digital ads, where campaigns and outside groups compete on more equal footing. But broadcast TV still dominates political spending, with AdImpact projecting it will account for 48% of the 2026 cycle total.

Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and Republican US Senate candidate, arrives to speak during a campaign event at the Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, Texas, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026.

Christopher Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Images

But the payoff from all that spending has been harder to see in political polls.

Despite more than $113 million spent on negative advertising targeting Talarico since the Texas primary, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data, a Siena College poll released Tuesday showed Talarico leading Paxton 48% to 44%, down only slightly from his six-point lead in September.

In Michigan, after more than $87 million in attacks targeting Democrat Abdul El-Sayed this year, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data, Fox News polling from late September found El-Sayed's favorable rating among registered voters up five points from its early August survey, while Republican Mike Rogers' fell four points.

Part of the challenge is diminishing returns on ads as Election Day nears. Political advertising experts tell CNBC that as campaigns repeatedly target the same small pool of persuadable voters, each additional dollar is less likely to reach someone who has not already heard the message.

"When an undecided voter has already seen 20 negative ads today, the 21st ad doesn't persuade them. It just gets tuned out," said Michael Beckel, money in politics reform director at Issue One. "Their eyes glaze over." Issue One works to reduce the influence of money in politics and has a board that includes former Democratic and Republican elected officials.

Still, some Republicans counter that topline poll movement is the wrong barometer. They say the September cash influx helped keep vulnerable candidates competitive as the political environment deteriorated.

In Texas, Republicans spent $121.5 million on the Senate race in September, up from just $5.5 million over the previous three months, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data, while Musk's America PAC added direct mail and canvassing. Republicans involved in the race said the picture could have been far worse without that support.

"The spending hasn't put Paxton ahead, but it kept a messy race and flawed candidate from becoming an unwinnable one," said a Republican operative involved in the Texas Senate race, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the state of the contest.

Maine offers another test. Republicans have poured more than $50 million into the state to support incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, nearly twice Democratic spending, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC filings. Since early September, FiftyPlusOne's polling average has tightened modestly, from about a three-point advantage for Democrat Troy Jackson in early September to roughly two points now.

The clearest sign that the GOP's cash advantage has stalled, however, is where the money is migrating.

In April, the Senate Leadership Fund announced a record $342 million advertising program across eight states designed to protect the GOP majority and expand the map. Texas, Kansas and Nebraska were not among the states.

Since Sept. 1, the SLF and affiliated groups — according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data — have spent or committed roughly $180 million across those three states, all of which Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

"Outside groups are diverting millions into deep-red territory to build defensive moats, leaving pickup opportunities starved for cash in the final stretch," Beckel told CNBC.

But those emergency defenses have come at a cost, diverting money from races Republicans once hoped to win and forcing national groups to narrow the map elsewhere.

In North Carolina, the Senate Leadership Fund initially pledged $71 million to back Republican Michael Whatley. On Oct. 2, however, the group pulled most of its remaining ad reservations after spending about $32.8 million, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data, as Democrat Roy Cooper continued to hold a double-digit lead in FiftyPlusOne's polling average.

It's a striking retreat in a perennial battleground where Republicans have won every presidential and Senate election since 2008.

The same triage is unfolding in the House.

The Congressional Leadership Fund cut off spending this week for vulnerable GOP Reps. Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa following grim internal polling. The group also shelved efforts to flip Democratic-held seats represented by Reps. Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan and Greg Landsman of Ohio. The spending shifts were first reported by the New York Times.

Those four races had already absorbed about $13.7 million in Congressional Leadership Fund spending through Oct. 14, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data. CLF is redirecting roughly $10 million from those races across 16 other districts, according to the Times. 

The new spending includes the South Texas seat held by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, a district Trump carried by 18 points in 2024. De La Cruz herself won reelection by about 14 points in 2024.