The Bearcats are trying to hold on to the 2026 season rope in Saturday's Homecoming matchup against No. 8 Texas Tech. Cincinnati is a big home underdog in the noon ET matchup on FS1 and needs to avoid a third-straight loss.
There's been at least one three-game losing streak in every season Scott Satterfield's led so far, and all of the momentum will fully leave this season if they can't find a way to shock the world Saturday. Cincinnati holds a 17% chance to win the game on ESPN's Matchup Predictor and is a 10.5-point betting underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Bearcats are ranked 56th nationally on ESPN's FPI to TTU's ninth-ranked spot. On SP+, TTU is ranked seventh, and UC is 53rd.
“I mean, it is a new week. Throughout a season, regardless of what the result on the weekend is, it is a new week. You have to come back strong. You have to come back confident in your approach," Satterfield said on Monday. "And I think as coaches, we have to come up with a great plan. Our kids have to go execute the plan. We have a great opportunity this week. We are excited about it. We know we are going up against a good football team. They have won a ton of games in the last two years. It is a great challenge for us. But wouldn’t it be awesome to go out there and play great and go get this win? How great would that be? So we have to put together a great plan."
Cincinnati is 21-5 in Homecoming games this century, but this marks the start of one of the hardest finishing schedules in the country.
UC's final six opponents have a combined 78.4% win rate in 2026, the highest remaining opponent winning percentage in college football.
Opponent Ins & Outs
The Red Raiders do a great job of stopping the run and running the football on the other side. Joey Maguire's team ranks highly in all the run defense traditional and advanced stats, setting up a tough task for Cincinnati's great rushing attack on the other side.
TTU ranks in the 92nd percentile in EPA/rush allowed and only gives up 2.86 yards per carry (12th nationally). They also rank in the 96th percentile in explosive rushes allowed. On offense, they rank 32nd in yards per rush (5.09) and are in the 77th percentile of explosive rush rates.
Cole Tabb has been one of the 10 most explosive running backs in the country coming off another three-TD game, but he's going to have one of his toughest times of the season on Saturday. TTU does get a bit leaky through the air, though.
They only rank in the 54th percentile in yards per dropback and explosive pass rate. If the play-action can get respected, UC may be able to keep pace via the air.
JC French (career-high 8.7 yards per attempt, one of two QBs nationally with no turnover-worthy plays) has proven he can dish the rock as the season's gone on. He likely needs to play the best game of his career and keep the passing momentum from West Virginia rolling to pull off the upset.
“They're coached very well. They don't bust very often. They're very sound in their system. They play together as a group. We're going to have to bring our A game. We're really excited for the opportunity for them to come to our house, a Top 10 team," French said on Monday.
Jumping out early and finding a way to dictate the game tempo is crucial here. UC's 94th percentile explosive pass rate would be a great thing to help get out early.
Cincinnati's defense on the other side won't make that easy. They have been bled out slowly across the past few weeks and are now allowing 6.16 yards per play (117th). When they don't force turnovers, opposing offenses glide through them like butter.
If the WVU results continue, TTU quarterback Will Hammond is in for a big day through the air. The Red Raiders would rather run than throw (104th in total pass attempts this season), but they should be able to feast on this pass defense.
They are terrible in aerial defense no matter how you slice it. UC doesn't rank higher than the 24th percentile nationally in explosive pass rate/pass success rate/yards per dropback or EPA per pass allowed.
It's one of the 20 worst pass defenses in the nation (eight yards per attempt allowed, 120th).
"We just made some missed tackles there, some misplays that got you off the field," Satterfield said about that unit. "If you get off the field right there, then our offense was rolling. Go down, then score, you get up two scores; it is not even going to be a game. But I think to answer your question, there is a fine line in there where you have to shift a little bit of the focus to stopping the other thing that they do not really typically do the best at.”
Cincinnati logged 17 of its 59 missed tackles this season at WVU. If they approach 20 misses again, they'll get blown out at home.
Prediction: 38-27 Texas Tech
All advanced stats via Game On Paper
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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