The Cleveland Guardians earned their way to the American League Championship Series after their historic comeback series win against the Chicago White Sox.
They have an uphill battle matching up against the Tampa Bay Rays with the World Series on the line. The Rays were the best team in the American League all season and will have home-field advantage.
During the regular season, the Rays knocked the Guardians around by going 5-1. There were some one-run games in the series, but the Guardians’ offense stalled against the Rays’ stellar pitching. Tampa Bay enters the series rested after their sweep of the New York Yankees and they have multiple advantages in the series for the American League Pennant.
Their lineup starts with three straight hitters who have more than 20 home runs and hit over .270 in the regular season. Junior Caminero led the team with 42 home runs and will garner MVP votes. The power at the top is a huge advantage for the Rays, who can secure the series with one swing of the bat.
The Rays also had enough rest to set their rotation. They have four starters who have under a 4.00 earned run average. Drew Rasmussen is their Game 1 starter with a 2.67 earned run average and no letdown in his lone postseason start. He threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees, allowing one hit with 10 strikeouts.
The starters then hand the ball over to a solid bullpen. Even though the Guardians have Cade Smith, the Rays also have a great closer. Bryan Baker had just as many saves as Smith did. Granted, Baker had more save opportunities, but he also had a 1.44 earned run average. The Rays used their strong lineup, standout starters, and reliable bullpen on their way to 98 wins.
However, there is an advantage that the Guardians can exploit to complete an upset. The Guardians did not have one guy hit 20 home runs in their uniform, but they do have a lineup with guys who have home run capability throughout. Spots five through nine averaged 14 home runs a piece in the regular season. The Rays' five-through-nine hitters averaged four.
While the advantage takes a squint and maybe an eye roll, it could prove to be big over the course of the series. The Rays will have to string together hits to put up crooked numbers, which is more difficult in the postseason, with pitchers getting quick hooks for favorable matchups.
The Guardians can use the length of their lineup to change a game in one at-bat. If the top of the order can work their way on base, then the back half of the lineup will have opportunities to put up big innings.
Should the pitching staff be able to handle the Rays’ top of the order, then the Guardians can have a power advantage. It is a tough task, but the White Sox had three 30-plus home-run hitters in the lineup, but the pitching staff only allowed one home run in five games.
The Guardians also have the best one-two punch in the rotation. While Rasmussen is probably the best pitcher, the Guardians have Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, who will not face off against him. The two starters can help the Guardians come out with an early series lead.
The Rays are every bit as good as their regular-season record. Hits will be at a premium in Tampa Bay, where the Rays are 55-26. The bottom half of the lineup has to provide a spark for the Guardians to be able to seek their first World Series title since 1948.
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