Elon Musk's team reached out to Republicans in late August to discuss a train wreck they all saw coming: Unless the GOP poured more money into Texas immediately, the state's Senate race could be lost in a matter of weeks.
Why it matters: That chat set in motion a massive rescue operation for Republican Ken Paxton funded substantially by Musk, the party's largest donor, who gave $158 million in September alone.
- Musk's rescue gave Paxton's sleepy campaign new life and showed why the world's richest person is the X factor in the push to prevent a midterm debacle for President Trump's party.
Zoom out: It also helped Republicans avoid a death-spiral scenario: that propping up Paxton in Texas would force them to drain badly needed resources from other Senate battlegrounds.
- Instead, Musk's money allowed Republicans to flood Texas' expensive TV markets and free up cash to shore up unexpectedly competitive races in Kansas and South Carolina.
Behind the scenes: In late August, Democrat James Talarico was dominating the Texas airwaves, portraying Paxton, the state's attorney general, as one of the nation's most corrupt politicians.
- Paxton, who isn't known as a prolific fundraiser, was dark on TV. Polling seen by Musk's team and the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) suggested his chances were sinking.
Against that backdrop, Musk's top political adviser, Chris Young, called SLF president Alex Latcham with an idea: Musk would donate $5 million to a pro-Paxton super PAC if that group raised another $5 million.
- Latcham countered: Would Musk contribute $10 million if the pro-Paxton group raised $5 million and SLF put up another $5 million?
- Young agreed. Within days, Republicans had mobilized $20 million to get Paxton on TV.
The intrigue: That was just the beginning. SLF and Musk's America PAC concluded that a much larger operation was needed, given the enormous cost of advertising in Texas.
- SLF and the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. would air tens of millions of dollars in pro-Paxton ads, alongside America PAC's ongoing multimillion-dollar voter-turnout operation — the GOP's "ground game" in campaign parlance.
On Sept. 11, the day after Republicans' midterm convention in Dallas, SLF launched Texas PAC, a new super PAC devoted to supporting Paxton.
- At a donor lunch during the convention, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) stressed the importance of holding Texas to preserve the GOP's Senate majority, while Latcham made the case for a massive financial intervention.
By the numbers: Musk, the world's richest person, contributed $158 million to SLF in September — $75 million on Sept. 9 and another $83 million on Sept. 23.
- Musk accounted for nearly 58% of the $273 million SLF raised during the third quarter. The group ended the quarter with $155 million on hand.
- Overall, Musk has donated $276 million to pro-GOP midterm efforts since July, the New York Times first reported.
The backstory: SLF had warned months earlier that nominating Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn would impose an enormous financial burden on Republicans.
- Thune backed Cornyn, fearing Paxton's legal troubles and personal scandals would make him more vulnerable to Democratic attacks.
- In a memo to donors in spring 2025, SLF projected that electing Paxton could cost $150 million to $200 million, far more than a Cornyn general election campaign would cost.
- Paxton, a Trump loyalist, won the GOP primary after the president endorsed him.
The big picture: Musk's big splash in the midterms marks a dramatic return to Republican politics after his bitter falling-out with Trump last year.
- Musk and Trump subsequently reconciled, and the billionaire resumed donating to Republican causes in December.
- Thune visited Musk's Tesla factory in Austin, Texas, last year to discuss the political landscape. Musk listened but made no commitments.
- The two remained on good terms, even as Musk pushed for passage of Trump's SAVE Act, which Republicans had been unable to get through the Senate.