Alberta’s referendum draws 174K ballots in the 1st day of advance polls

More than 174,500 Albertans cast their ballots in the province’s referendum on the first day of advance polls Monday, as both separatist and pro-Canada groups focus on getting their supporters out in a campaign where experts say turnout will be critical.

Elections Alberta said Tuesday that a total of 174,532 people voted on the first of five advance polling days ahead of the Oct. 19 vote. For context, advanced polls in the 2023 provincial general election saw an average of 151,727 Albertans vote per day.

With the roughly 418,000 mail-in ballots already approved by Elections Alberta, early turnout for the Oct. 19 referendum — which includes a question on whether the province should begin the process to hold a vote on separating from Canada — looks to be strong.

For both separatist and pro-Canada campaigners, the focus has shifted from attempting to persuade voters to their side and is now increasingly on getting their supporters to the polls.

Thomas Lukaszuk, the former Alberta cabinet minister who has been spearheading the Forever Canadian campaign, said they have approximately 18,000 volunteers working to get out the vote ahead of Oct. 19.

“Albertans are very passionate about being Canadian … so I’m not surprised that Albertans are lining up to cast their votes, because they’re quite angry that they’re being put through this, that they have to prove to someone how proud they are to be Canadian,” Lukaszuk said in an interview.

“And I think they want to send a strong message to (Premier) Danielle Smith, to the rest of Canada … and frankly to the world that Alberta is not going to be the weak link in our confederation.”

Still, Lukaszuk allowed that the separatist voters are very motivated — suggesting they’d “crawl over broken glass” to cast their ballot. But Lukaszuk said the Forever Canadian organization was “laser focused” on identifying voters and making sure they cast their ballot.

Albertans aren’t actually voting on whether to separate, but on whether they want to begin the legal process to hold a second binding referendum on independence.

An Ipsos poll conducted between Sept. 18 and 22 exclusively for Global News found that 70 per cent of Albertan respondents wanted to remain part of Canada, while just 20 per cent said they wanted an independence referendum.

The current referendum has a total of 10 government-initiated questions, mostly to do with immigration and constitutional issues. Only one question is on the possibility of an independence referendum.

Ipsos found that a strong majority of respondents (76 per cent) were aware that there were multiple questions on the ballot, and that 62 per cent intended to vote on all 10 questions.

The Ipsos findings also suggest that there may be more Albertans willing to provoke an independence referendum than there are who actually want the province to separate. While 20 per cent said they’d vote to hold a binding referendum, just 14 per cent said they’d actually vote to leave.

There is a sense in Alberta that voters are also not viewing the referendum in isolation, according to Andrew MacKendrick, a former political staffer who has worked both for the Alberta NDP and the federal Liberals.

MacKendrick said the risk of a binding independence referendum at a time of geopolitical and economic instability is also a motivating factor to get Albertans to the ballot box.

“We have daily updates of whatever Trump is saying about Canada, we have companies all over the country talking about layoffs because of tariffs. And I think the risk factor is so large right now that the frustration (of the referendum) gets combined with, ‘There’s a big risk if I don’t participate,’” MacKendrick said in an interview.

“I think there’s a much higher combined motivation-risk vote that hopefully most folks will pick up on.”

For Lukaszuk’s part, he said he’s not taking anything for granted.

“When polling indicates that you’re on the winning side, complacency sets in. We saw that with Brexit, we saw that in elections,” he said.

“The last part of the campaign is the most important one.”