BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 11:45 p.m. ET · Source: TV Globo interview, reported by Veja, CNN Brasil and Correio Braziliense
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 16 October, Flávio Bolsonaro told TV Globo he would give up a second term if Congress does not pass his proposal to end presidential reelection.
- The pledge He would back a constitutional amendment ending reelection and barring relatives up to the third degree from succeeding him.
- The term Any longer single term, such as five years instead of four, would be left to Congress to settle.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 24% (16 October, 11:17 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 24% and 22%), as of 16 October, 11:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Whether Congress would pass the amendment, and how voters weigh the pledge, is not known.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, said on Friday 16 October he would give up a second term if Congress does not pass his proposal to end presidential reelection. He made the pledge in an interview on TV Globo, Brazil’s biggest broadcaster, nine days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
The conservative Liberal Party (PL) candidate faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, in the vote on Sunday 25 October. A president who limits himself to one term would change how markets and Washington read Brazilian politics over the next decade.
What Flávio Bolsonaro Promised on TV Globo
If elected, he said he would put forward a constitutional amendment (PEC) ending reelection, which has been allowed in Brazil since 1997, Veja reported. Asked whether he would still forgo a second term if Congress refuses, he said yes.
“The details will come in the legislative process; I only need one term,” he said, according to CNN Brasil. He added that he is not “disputing power,” Veja reported.
Relatives Would Be Barred Too
The amendment would apply “not only to me but to relatives up to the third degree,” Flávio said, CNN Brasil reported. The third-degree limit is his own proposal, not current law.
The plan would also keep his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, from running in 2030, A Crítica reported. Close family such as siblings, grandparents and uncles falls within the third degree.
How Long Would a Single Term Last?
Flávio said the length of the mandate would be settled in Congress, according to Correio Braziliense. Veja reported that the debate would cover lengthening the term from four years to five or even six.
Every president elected since 2002 has sought a second term, namely Lula, Dilma Rousseff and Jair Bolsonaro, Veja noted. The reelection amendment passed under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Why Congress Holds the Key
A constitutional amendment in Brazil needs the backing of three-fifths of both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, in two rounds of voting each. That makes Congress, not the president, the decisive actor on any change to reelection.
The pledge therefore binds only Flávio himself, whatever lawmakers decide. Our Brazil election polls tracker shows how close the race stands going into the final week.
What It Means for You
If you invest in Brazilian assets, a stated one-term plan signals how a Bolsonaro presidency might approach long-term policy. It is a campaign promise, though, and markets will watch Congress rather than the pledge.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the coming years. Our Brazil election odds page tracks the betting markets daily.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (16 October, 11:17 p.m. ET), in a market that has drawn about US$185 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), also lists Brazilian runoff markets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.2% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 11:20 pm ET (04:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Congress would approve the amendment, or how long a single term would last. None of the reports we reviewed carried a response from Lula’s campaign.
It is also unclear whether the pledge will move undecided voters before 25 October. A promise made in an interview is not a legal commitment.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Flávio Bolsonaro promise about reelection?
He said on 16 October that he would give up a second term if Congress does not pass his proposal to end presidential reelection. He made the pledge in an interview on TV Globo.
Who would the proposal bar from running?
It would end reelection and also bar relatives up to the third degree, he said. That is his own proposal, not current law.
Would the presidential term become longer?
Flávio said the length of the mandate would be settled in Congress. Veja reported the debate covers five or even six years instead of four.
Can the president change reelection alone?
No. A constitutional amendment needs three-fifths of both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, in two rounds of voting each.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, nine days after this interview. The winner takes office as president.
Sources: Veja, 16 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 16 October 2026; Correio Braziliense, 16 October 2026; A Crítica, 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
The Rio Times · Power Map
See who really holds power in Latin America
Click to open the Power Map →