President Donald Trump’s net approval among men fell eight points to negative 19 in the latest Economist/YouGov poll, his weakest result across five comparable registered-voter surveys since September.
A Newsweek analysis found that Trump’s standing among men has not declined continuously: his approval fluctuated within a narrow range before falling sharply in the latest poll.
James Druckman, the Martin Brewer Anderson Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester, told Newsweek that the latest movement “likely is meaningful, especially because it tracks the general trends.”
“That is a real trend and similar to what we're seeing from other surveys,” Michael Montgomery, a political scientist and lecturer at the University of Michigan-Dearborn, said when asked by Newsweek about whether the five-poll sequence provided credible evidence that Trump’s support among men was weakening.
“No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the President understands how to communicate with them,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement.
“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”
Why It Matters
The decline in Trump’s approval rating could concern Republicans before the midterms because male voters have been an important part of Trump’s electoral coalition, particularly among younger and non-college-educated Americans.
GOP candidates now face the possibility that dissatisfied supporters could switch parties, continue voting Republican further down the ballot, or simply stay home.
...
The Latest Poll Marks A Sharp Break
In the Economist/YouGov survey conducted October 10–12, 40 percent of men approved of Trump’s performance and 59 percent disapproved, producing a net rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of negative 19.
The poll questioned 1,403 registered voters and had an adjusted margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
That represented an eight-point deterioration from the October 2–5 survey, when Trump recorded 44 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval among men.
The earlier poll sampled 1,381 registered voters and reported an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Results Highlight Concerns Without Showing a Trend
Previous results show why the latest number stands out without establishing a steady downward trend. Trump registered 44 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval in the September 4–8 poll of 1,469 registered voters.
From September 18–21, he stood at 43 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval among a sample of 1,401.
His rating moved to 42 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval in the September 25–28 survey of 1,429 people.
Each of those polls had an adjusted margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Because the findings for men are drawn from only part of each national sample, they are subject to greater uncertainty than the published margins for all respondents.
The sequence therefore provides a warning signal rather than conclusive evidence of a lasting realignment.
...
Why Male Support Matters
Druckman, an expert in American political behavior and survey methodology, said a weakening among men would be especially damaging because Trump has historically benefited from the “gender gap” in American politics.
“If Republican candidates cannot attract the votes of Republican men, or fail to mobilize Republican men to turn out to vote, they will not do well in this election,” Karen Beckwith, the Flora Stone Mather Professor of Political Science at Case Western Reserve University, told Newsweek.
Beckwith said Republican candidates could try to limit the damage by emphasizing what they had delivered locally on the economy, although she noted that separating themselves from the president would be harder in statewide races.
Caroline Welles, executive director of The First Ask and a former Democratic National Committee and Biden administration official, cautioned against treating one poll as evidence of a dramatic electoral shift.
She nevertheless said Trump’s improved performance among men, particularly younger voters, had been an important part of his 2024 victory, but said their subsequent movement away from him suggested “that swing was a one-off and not a generational trend.”
Those voters may not have developed a lasting attachment to the Republican Party, Welles said.
Instead, some could now be considering whether backing Trump produced the economic improvements they expected and “actually improved their lives.”
...
Prices Bring Politics Into Everyday Life
Several experts identified personal finances as the most plausible source of dissatisfaction.
Montgomery, who previously worked as a U.S. diplomat specializing in economics, said rising fuel costs were becoming more difficult for voters to ignore.
“This demographic loves their trucks and the $100+ fill-up was a real eye-opener,” Montgomery told Newsweek.
Beckwith pointed more broadly to inflation, energy prices, health care costs and taxes.
Unlike an argument encountered only in campaign advertising, those pressures reach voters whenever they buy groceries or fill a gas tank.
Druckman said younger, rural and non-college-educated men deserve particular attention.
“If economic considerations dwarf the value and identity ones, and the economy is not performing for them, that is bad for incumbents,” he told Newsweek.
Economic decline helped move members of those groups toward Republicans, he said, while campaign rhetoric invoking traditional values strengthened that relationship.
If material concerns now outweigh cultural identification, incumbents could bear the cost.
Foreign policy may add another source of strain.
Druckman said parts of this constituency have strongly opposed overseas wars, while Montgomery argued that Trump’s standing among younger men could deteriorate more rapidly if the Middle East conflict expands.
“I’m watching younger men closely. If the Middle East war gets much wider, we’re likely to see rapid erosion in Trump support there,” Montgomery said.
Approval Does Not Equal A Vote
“It’s important to note that approval is not votes,” Kirsten England of the University of South Florida told Newsweek.
“The evidence cannot separate falling presidential approval from voters switching parties or from Republican-leaning men staying home,” she said. “Those are three different stories.”
A Pew Research Center survey conducted September 28–October 4 illustrates that distinction. Men divided evenly on the House ballot, with 42 percent supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and the same share backing the Republican.
Druckman said men could disapprove of Trump while continuing to support Republican congressional candidates, although “the trend in the 21st century has been party voting, not a lot of split-ticket voting [and the] impact here could be some just do not turn out.”
Montgomery reached a similar conclusion. “I think that disaffected Trump supporters will generally be more likely to stay home on Election Day than cross over to the Democrats,” he said, while allowing that some centrist Democrats with populist appeal could benefit.
“We spend so much time trying to identify which voters are switching parties, when one of the most consequential decisions a voter makes is whether to participate in the first place,” Welles said.
A voter motivated to support Trump in a presidential election may feel little attachment to a House or Senate candidate two years later.
That creates a strategic problem for the GOP.
Congressional candidates who move away from Trump may improve their chances with independents and dissatisfied voters, but they could also weaken enthusiasm among his most committed supporters.
What Happens Next
For now, the threat to Republicans is not evidence of a mass Democratic conversion. It is the possibility that some of the men who helped return Trump to power no longer see a reason to show up.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.