Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig said on Bloomberg Television on Friday that enforcement staff at the agency have been scrutinizing crude trades connected to the Iran war, dating back to March 23. On that day, trading activity surged shortly ahead of President Donald Trump’s retreat from his threats to attack Iran’s power plants.
"Our enforcement division has been looking at all these trades," Selig said, according to Bloomberg. "We take this stuff very seriously."
He added: "We are on top of this and, rest assured, people can have confidence in the markets as long as I'm in the seat."
Traders unloaded Brent and West Texas Intermediate contracts covering no fewer than 6 million barrels over just two minutes early on March 23, according to Bloomberg. That was more than 8.5 times the volume traded at the same time of morning over the prior week, according to Bloomberg. Oil trading volumes also climbed sharply at other points this spring before several of Trump's announcements, stoking worries that traders may have acted on non-public information, according to Bloomberg.
According to Bloomberg, a CFTC political appointee instructed the agency's market monitoring staff to withdraw a referral sent to enforcement investigators that flagged questionable trading around Trump's decision to hold off on attacking Iran's power plants. CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller, speaking at a conference in New York, said in response that the agency has probed the trading "from the beginning" and that the investigation remains open, according to Reuters.
Investor advocates and lawmakers have voiced alarm that the CFTC's enforcement work has been tapering off, according to Reuters. The agency is losing staff while it oversees a growing prediction markets industry, according to Reuters.
Selig said the agency is monitoring prediction markets for indications of tampering before the U.S. midterm elections. Miller said CFTC staff "have investigated, and may have open investigations about some candidates who have placed trades on contracts that are based on their own elections," according to Reuters.
Suspicious trading tied to the Iran conflict has drawn scrutiny in prediction markets too. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged nine linked Polymarket accounts that won more than $2.4 million on bets about U.S. military outcomes in the Iran conflict. The CFTC, which oversees prediction markets, has shed staff, and its enforcement caseload has shrunk since 2024.
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