MORE Filipinos have started taking sides in Vice-President (VP) Sara Duterte-Carpio’s impeachment trial in the third quarter, though public opinion remains divided between acquittal and conviction, according to a survey by OCTA Research.
About 47% of adult Filipinos surveyed from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 said they need to see the evidence presented at the trial before deciding how the Senate impeachment court should vote, down from 55% in July, the independent pollster said in a report on Wednesday.
Some 25% said the Senate should acquit the VP, up from 21% in July, just as the Senate impeachment court opened Ms. Duterte’s trial. About 21% said the court should convict her and remove her from office, a four-point increase from 17%. The remaining 6% either said they were undecided or had no opinion.
“Three months in, nearly half of adult Filipinos have formed a view on the verdict,” OCTA Research said. “The trial has so far sharpened opinion without settling it.”
According to the pollster, “no side can credibly claim a public mandate,” as assertions that “the people” want conviction or acquittal are unsupported by the survey findings.
OCTA also noted that by itself, a verdict is unlikely to end the political conflict surrounding the case.
“In the absence of agreement on the outcome, the one standard most Filipinos still share is the one they expressed at the start of the trial: that the law and evidence, not political considerations, should decide,” the report read.
“The Senate’s strongest basis for a verdict that the public will accept, whatever that verdict is, remains a process that is visibly fair, transparent, and grounded in the evidence,” it added.
The third-quarter survey also showed regional and demographic divisions have deepened over the three-month period.
In the National Capital Region, support for conviction nearly doubled to 34% in the third quarter from 19% in July, while support for acquittal dropped to 17% from 21%.
In contrast, Mindanao moved strongly toward acquittal, rising to 52% from 41%, led by high figures in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao at 76% and the Davao Region at 64%.
The Visayas remained the most stable area, with 53% of respondents preferring to see the evidence first.
Urban respondents leaned toward conviction, rising to 25% from 16%, whereas rural residents shifted toward acquittal, increasing to 30% from 21%.
Among socioeconomic groups, Class E recorded a major shift toward conviction, jumping to 32% from 13%.
Conviction among college-educated Filipinos also nearly doubled to 32% from 17%.
Young adults aged 18 to 24 saw the largest drop in those waiting for evidence, falling to 29% from 50%, splitting between 36% for conviction and 27% for acquittal.
OCTA noted that the survey reflects “a public that has moved from waiting to deciding, but not toward agreement.
The noncommissioned nationwide survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult probability respondents, with a margin of error of ±3 at a 95% confidence level. — Erika Mae P. Sinaking