WATCH: Israel ‘very close’ to creating conditions for regime change in Iran, Netanyahu adviser says

Israel was “very close” to creating conditions for regime change in Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy adviser Ophir Falk told The Jerusalem Post in a studio interview, while stressing that the Iranian people would have to determine their country’s future.

“I think we’re very close to creating those conditions,” Falk said when asked how close pressure on Tehran had brought the prospect of regime change. “Those conditions are being created as we speak right now.”

Speaking with Post Editor-in-Chief Zvika Klein and diplomatic correspondent Amichai Stein, Falk said Israel’s actions were creating conditions that would allow Iranians to challenge their rulers.

“Regime change in Iran is up to the Iranian people,” he said.

Falk described the US-led economic blockade as successful, while noting that economic pressure needed time to produce results. He argued that Iran and its regional proxies had been severely weakened by the war, citing strikes on senior figures, nuclear scientists, missiles, launchers and production capabilities.

Stein asked whether Israel and the US had done enough to provide the Iranian people with the means to challenge their rulers. Falk described Operations Rising Lion and Roaring Lion as “two of the most successful military operations in recent history,” saying their achievements had been “incredible” while acknowledging that no military operation could be perfect.

He also acknowledged the danger facing Iranians who took to the streets, citing the regime’s violent repression of protesters.

“I can appreciate the concerns of people,” he said when the discussion turned to their fear of demonstrating.

Falk did not offer a timetable for political change in Tehran or detail what further assistance might be provided to Iranians seeking it.

Turning to Gaza, Falk said Hamas could disarm “in an afternoon” if it wanted to, and that Israel would not redeploy before the terrorist group was fully disarmed. Reconstruction, he said, would have to wait for demilitarization.

“If Hamas wanted to disarm, they could do that in an afternoon,” he said. “And that’s what we expect.”

Falk outlined three requirements for Gaza: disarming Hamas, demilitarizing the territory and deradicalizing its population. He presented those goals as consistent with US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan.

“That means zero weapons,” he said of demilitarization.

The Trump-led Board of Peace was established to oversee implementation of the plan, including Gaza’s reconstruction and transition to a new governing framework.

Stein pressed Falk on why Israel would not agree to a two-week pause in targeted killings and other military activity to allow an attempt at securing Hamas’s disarmament. The question followed Klein’s description of frustration among figures in the Trump administration over Israel’s approach to the board’s work.

Falk said he was unfamiliar with the 14-day proposal. He reiterated that Hamas and all other terrorist organizations in Gaza had to disarm, and that Israel would not redeploy before Hamas was fully disarmed throughout the territory.

“We’re not going to settle for anything less,” he said.

When Klein pointed out that changing attitudes among Gaza’s population could not be accomplished in an afternoon, Falk agreed that deradicalization would take time. He reiterated that Hamas could disarm in an afternoon if it wanted to.

Falk’s assessment of Israel’s diplomatic position was consistently upbeat. He pointed to relations with the US, India, South American countries and European partners as evidence that Israel’s military strength had reinforced its international standing.

Klein challenged that assessment, asking about hostility toward Israel among Democrats and signs of erosion within the Republican Party. Stein raised statements marking October 7 in which US political figures devoted substantial attention to Palestinian suffering and criticism of Israel.

Falk acknowledged a problem in the public arena.

“We’ve been fighting a seven-front war, and on the eighth front, the information warfare, we have not been as successful as we have been on the battlefield,” he said. “And we will need to address that as well.”

He nevertheless maintained that the strategic relationship with Washington remained exceptionally close, citing joint military activity, planning and frequent conversations between Netanyahu and Trump.

Asked how many times the two leaders had spoken over the preceding week or two, Falk said they spoke often but could not recall the precise timing.

“I haven’t seen daylight between the president and the prime minister on the big issues,” he said when asked about differences over Iran.

Pressed on whether American requests had constrained Israeli military decisions, Falk said Netanyahu’s approach was to agree when possible and refuse when Israel’s security required it. He added that Netanyahu had said no on a number of occasions.

‘We’re going to get them all out’: Falk on the hostage negotiations

Falk said Netanyahu rejected an early working assumption held by some that Hamas would kill all the hostages and insisted that bringing every hostage home become a formal war objective.

“The prime minister did not accept that,” Falk said. “He said we’re going to get them all out, and we’re going to put it as a war objective to get them all out.”

Falk maintained that military pressure, diplomatic pressure and a united Israeli-American position were the combination that produced hostage releases. He said perceived differences between Jerusalem and Washington encouraged Hamas to retreat from negotiations.

Falk also credited Netanyahu with pressing then-president Joe Biden to increase pressure on Qatar to secure additional releases during the first agreement in November 2023.

One of the most pointed exchanges concerned whether Israel could have secured an additional hostage agreement between the November 2023 releases and the January 2025 deal.

Stein asked whether any agreement had been possible during that period, distinguishing between the availability of a deal and whether it would have been a good deal for Israel.

“No, there was no deal on the table,” Falk initially replied.

When pressed, he defined that answer in terms of the government’s war objectives: dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, freeing all the hostages and ensuring Gaza could no longer threaten Israel.

“There was no deal that could enable Israel to achieve its war objectives,” he said.

Falk argued that an arrangement requiring Israel to release large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, withdraw and leave the prewar threat intact would have contradicted the goals approved by the cabinet. He cited an Israeli proposal that then-US secretary of state Antony Blinken described in April 2024 as “extraordinarily generous,” saying Hamas had rejected it.

His account addressed a dispute that has resurfaced around former White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk’s book, Brink: Inside the Race to Free the October 7th Hostages, and McGurk’s recent interview with the Post. 

In a separate interview on Dan Senor’s Call Me Back podcast, McGurk called the suggestion that Hamas had been ready to release all the hostages in the days after October 7 “complete bullshit.” He said Hamas had demanded the release of all Palestinian prisoners, continued Hamas rule and a return to the prewar status quo.

Phil Gordon, who served as national security adviser to then-vice president Kamala Harris, challenged claims that McGurk’s account vindicated Netanyahu. Gordon alleged that Netanyahu introduced additional conditions in July 2024 after Hamas accepted the basic framework, delaying an agreement by six months.

Asked about McGurk’s impression that members of Israel’s negotiating team had sometimes gone beyond Netanyahu’s position, Falk declined to dispute the former US official’s personal assessment.

“I don’t want to argue with Brett’s feelings,” he said. He added that Netanyahu and the cabinet would not approve an agreement that jeopardized Israel or its war objectives.

Falk praised Trump’s approach, while declining to speculate about whether Israel would have reached the same position had Kamala Harris won the 2024 presidential election or Biden served another term.

He accused the Biden administration of imposing a “de facto embargo” on some weapons Israel needed before the Rafah operation. The Biden administration paused a shipment of heavy bombs in May 2024 over concerns about civilian casualties, while other US weapons continued to flow to Israel.

Falk also described his own morning on October 7, 2023, saying he was asleep when the attack began and was called shortly afterward to the Kirya, Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv.

Before leaving, he woke his children, who were serving in the military, and told them to report to their units.

He described Netanyahu as focused while receiving updates on the unfolding attack.

“He told me it’s going to be a long war,” Falk recalled, saying the remark came on the way to an initial briefing from the security chiefs.

According to Falk, Netanyahu’s immediate instructions included reinforcing the northern front to deter Hezbollah from joining the fighting, enabling the military to concentrate on the south, preventing the terrorists who had entered Israel from returning to Gaza and calling up as many reservists as needed.

Falk said that, to the best of his recollection, French President Emmanuel Macron was the first foreign leader to call Netanyahu that day. He recalled Macron offering to mediate on the day of the massacre and Netanyahu rejecting the approach.

According to Falk, Netanyahu compared Hamas to ISIS and warned that Macron would face the group in Paris if Israel did not dismantle it in Gaza. Falk said Netanyahu also told Macron not to convey messages on his behalf, adding that Hamas would soon receive a message from Israel.

He also denied reports raised by Klein that UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan had telephoned Netanyahu before October 7 to warn him of an impending attack.

“There was no such call,” Falk said.

Klein distinguished that allegation from possible communications between the countries’ intelligence agencies. Falk said he was unaware of any warning or caution, while reiterating his denial of a warning call between the leaders.

On regional diplomacy, Falk praised the United Arab Emirates and said economic relations under the Abraham Accords, the US-brokered normalization agreements launched in 2020, had continued to develop through the war.

Asked why the UAE had publicly acknowledged Netanyahu’s visit, Falk said doing so served both countries’ national interests. He described the visit as “fantastic.”

He expressed support for normalization with Saudi Arabia but gave no details of negotiations or conditions for an agreement.

The discussion also touched on the flydubai passengers diverted to Saudi Arabia. Asked about the refusal to allow an Israeli civilian aircraft to collect them, Falk emphasized reports that they had been treated well and had reached Israel safely. He said a joint investigation into the incident was underway.

On the Houthis, the Iranian-backed movement in Yemen, Falk condemned attacks on civilians and said Israel would act to defend its security and national interests. He did not specify whether Israel was assisting Saudi Arabia against the group.

Asked what needed to happen for additional countries to establish relations with Israel, Falk initially said Israel had to win the war and then secure peace. When pressed on whether normalization would therefore have to wait, he said agreements could come whenever prospective partners were ready.

“I think that can happen and will happen much quicker than you think,” he said.