A recent analysis by the US-based magazine The National Interest argues that Washington’s efforts to expand economic and strategic ties with Central Asia could face significant challenges without addressing Afghanistan’s ongoing political and security situation.
In an article titled “US Central Asia Policy Has an Afghanistan Problem,” the magazine examined US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s October 18 visit to Uzbekistan, where he met representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan under the C5+1 framework.
Accompanied by a large US business delegation, Rubio sought to strengthen trade, investment, regional connectivity and security cooperation. According to the magazine, Washington is increasingly focused on Central Asia’s critical minerals, energy resources, transport corridors and industrial development as it seeks to diversify its economic partnerships and reduce dependence on China.
However, the analysis argues that economic development and regional security cannot be separated from Afghanistan’s situation. Terrorism, drug trafficking, border security and the risk of regional instability remain key concerns for Central Asian countries.
The magazine also suggests that expanding US economic engagement could pave the way for closer security cooperation with Central Asian states, including intelligence sharing, border surveillance, cybersecurity and military training.
Meanwhile, the article highlights Russia’s growing engagement with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, noting Moscow’s recognition of the authorities in Kabul in July 2025 and subsequent moves toward military-technical cooperation.
The analysis also points to deteriorating relations between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate amid Islamabad’s allegations that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operates from Afghan territory. The Islamic Emirate has repeatedly rejected allegations that Afghan territory is being used to threaten other countries.
Regional connectivity projects also depend on developments in Afghanistan, the magazine argues. It cites the CASA-1000 electricity transmission project, which aims to connect electricity supplies from Central Asia to South Asia, as an example of how progress depends on completing infrastructure in Afghanistan. According to a January 2026 World Bank update referenced in the article, the project cannot become operational until the Afghan section of the transmission line is completed.
The analysis describes Afghanistan as a potential land bridge between Central and South Asia through trade, energy and transport networks. However, it identifies restrictions affecting women and girls, along with the absence of an inclusive political settlement, as obstacles to long-term stability and deeper regional integration.
The National Interest calls for broader regional dialogue involving Afghanistan’s neighbors and other key countries, including Central Asian states, India, Pakistan, Russia, China, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, to develop common approaches to security and economic cooperation.
The magazine concludes that Central Asia’s economic prospects are closely linked to Afghanistan’s stability and that Washington’s long-term regional objectives will remain difficult to achieve without addressing challenges related to Afghanistan.
The Islamic Emirate has repeatedly stated that Afghan territory will not be used against any country, particularly neighboring states, and that armed groups will not be allowed to use Afghanistan as a base for attacks against other countries.
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