A new poll shows that Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly overall in the race to be Florida's next governor, but Latinos favor the Democrat by 5 percent.
Donalds landed 50 percent overall compared to Jolly's 42 percent, the new N+ Univision/YouGov poll shows on Monday. Among Latinos however, Jolly received 48 percent compared to Donalds' 43 percent. The poll also shows that President Donald Trump's favorability among the key voting bloc is more negative versus the overall with 38 percent favorability compared to a 54 percent unfavorable rating.
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns.
Trump won Florida, his home state, in the 2024 presidential election versus then-Vice President Kamala Harris by double digits. Winning the state was notable amid Trump's broader victory as he made inroads with Hispanic dominant communities and counties in the state like Miami-Dade, Hillsborough and Osceola.
Newsweek reached out to both Jolly and Donalds' campaigns via email on Monday for comment.
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What To Know
Florida, once considered a battleground, has shifted to the right over time and is now seen as a reliable pickup for Republicans. An influx of conservative retirees into the state, as well as Trump’s inroads with Latinos, helped turn the state into a stronghold.
However, Democrats are hoping to make the state more competitive again in November's midterm with nominee Jolly for governor and Angie Nixon for U.S. Senate leading the top of the ticket.
The new poll shows that Cubans favor Trump-endorsed Donalds by 51 percent to 42 percent, Puerto Ricans favor Jolly 51 percent to 35 percent and South Americans prefer Jolly 47 percent to Donalds' 44 percent. Among Latinos who voted for the president in 2024, 9 percent support Jolly, the poll shows.
Fifty-five percent of Latinos also say that immigration enforcement has gone too far. That figure combines 32 percent who say the border needed securing, while noting that enforcement has gone too far and an additional 23 percent who say that the border situation was overstated, and enforcement has gone too far, according to the poll.
The survey shows that 41 percent of Latinos are very or somewhat concerned that they or someone close to them could be affected by immigration enforcements. Twenty-nine percent of Latino Trump voters also say that immigration enforcement has gone too far, the poll shows.
Affordability is a key issue among Sunshine State voters, and 59 percent of Latinos say jobs and the cost of living are a top issue in the state, 57 percent say the cost of housing and affordability while 33 percent say immigration and immigration enforcement.
Clarissa Martinez, Vice President of Unidos US, a nonprofit and non-party affiliated organization, told Newsweek via email on Monday, “The poll is consistent with Hispanic voter sentiment in Florida and nationwide: there is widespread discontent with the economy. Hispanic voters have noted that the two top issues shaping Hispanic voters’ views of the President are the cost of living and immigration enforcement, and these are two potent factors swinging these voters away from Republicans.”
The poll surveyed 825 Florida voters from October 2 to October 15 and had a margin of error of 4 percent.
What Other Polling Shows
A Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research poll shows Donalds up 52 percent to Jolly's 41 percent among likely voters. The survey shows that about 5 percent are undecided and 3 percent would pick another candidate. The poll surveyed 826 Florida adults from October 1 to October 9 and had a 4.2 percent margin of error.
A Mason-Dixon Poll for NBC 6 and Telemundo showed Donalds up 48 percent to Jolly's 41 percent overall. One percent said other and 10 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 625 registered voters in the state from September 28 through October 1, 2026, with a margin of error of 4 percent.
The poll shows that 48 percent of Hispanics support Donalds and 43 percent would back Jolly.
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Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins