I’ll take 6-4, I won’t ask any questions, and I’ll be happy to go with the Survive and Advance theory on whatever that was last Saturday.
I picked the absolute wrong time to play to the crowd and go with ten games purely against the spread – no point totals – and this week is even more difficult because of two key elements.
1) I don’t see it. Look, there are some times when games are screaming at me, and this week … nope. It’s a soft week overall, so like an old starting pitcher trying to get through the fifth inning, I’m about to throw every gimmicky junk ball I can. And also …
2) I’m not totally ready to call it Double Digit Home Dog season, but I’m close. For the uninitiated, I’ll explain more in a moment … let’s have some fun.
Results So Far: 48-37
– Week 8 Schedule & Predictions
– CFN Week 8 Expert Picks
10. Air Force at Wyoming
Line: Air Force -5.5
ATS Pick: Air Force
– Game Preview and Prediction
I liked it better at Air Force -4.5, but whatever.
Wyoming is 3-0 at home, but Northern Illinois and Hawaii are having awful seasons, and Northern Colorado is from the FCS. When the Cowboys lose, they get rocked.
Central Michigan ran 59 times against Wyoming and won by 14. North Dakota State ran 45 times against the Cowboys and won by 28. Colorado State ran 33 times and pulled away to win by 22. Air Force has yet to run fewer than 51 times.
9. Boise State at Washington State
Line: Boise State -13.5
ATS Pick: Washington State
Okay, here’s the quick explanation of the Double-Digit Home Dog.
About 20 years ago, I noticed a bizarre run of games that didn’t make any sense, but they all had the same common thread. The massive underdog home teams were not only hitting, but many were winning outright. It was crazy – for a two-week span, the double-digit home underdogs were covering at well above 70%. (One key thing – this only applies to conference games.)
It’s not supernatural. If you’re a double-digit home dog at this time of year, something is either going very wrong, or you’re okay, and you’ll play in a Nobody Believes In Us way. Meanwhile, the favorite – remembering that these are still 18-to-25-year-old kids – are probably looking ahead to something massive on the horizon. And sure enough …
James Madison rolled into Boone, North Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite over App State on Thursday night, and it left a 34-31 overtime loser.
Washington State doesn’t have an offense, and it lost by two touchdowns or more four times. But the defense is decent, Boise State might be a tad rusty after two weeks off, and … it’s the DDHD. It’s not perfect, but let’s see if thing works.
Okay, now it’s time to play a little hurry-up .
8. Oklahoma at Mississippi State
Line: Oklahoma -3.5
ATS Pick: Oklahoma
Here’s the thing to like about this call. If Mississippi State star quarterback Kamario Taylor can go, this line changes fast, and the value should be strong.
If Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell don’t play, then Oklahoma should be able to get by on its defense against a team that lost to LSU 31-0 last week. Also, this is the time of year when defenses matter. More on that in a moment for another key game.
7. Texas at Ole Miss
Line: Texas -3.5
ATS Pick: Texas
The Texas offense is so freaking maddening. It’s been too mechanical, too technical, and way overcoached. This bunch is beyond overdue to finally grip it, rip it, and see what happens.
Ola Miss is great at home, but away from Oxford, it blew out a blah Vanderbilt team, helped by four takeaways. Texas has only turned it over more than once in one game – Oklahoma.
The Rebels couldn’t handle the Louisville deep passing game or the Florida running game. Texas will play desperate and do both of those things well.
6. San Diego State at Colorado State
Line: Point Total: 62.5
ATS Pick: Over
The last three games by your 2026 Colorado State Rams …
Texas State 66, Colorado State 27
Oregon State 56, Colorado State 26
UTSA 59, Colorado State 45
The BYU game against the Rams produced a combined 64 points, and the win over Southern Utah came up with 82 points.
Colorado State is dead last in the nation in total defense by a mile, giving up 46 more yards per game than anyone else, and it’s also dead last in scoring defense, allowing 43.2 points per game. SDSU gives up 33.3 per game, including 66 to Oregon State a few weeks ago and 41 to Toledo.
5. Michigan State at UCLA
Line: UCLA -15.5
ATS Pick: UCLA
– Game Preview and Prediction
Michigan State suffered two straight gut-punch losses to Illinois on a two-point try and to Northwestern on a blocked field goal and a failed defensive stop. This one, though, has the feel of the 31-3 loss at Wisconsin in the Spartans’ last road game.
The Badgers mixed it up a little, got the running game going, and the Spartans just didn’t have it. Pat Fitzgerald’s bunch will always give the effort, but the lines won’t hold up against the unbeaten Bruins.
4. Indiana at Michigan
Line: Indiana -7.5
ATS Pick: Michigan
Upset Pick From Six Months Ago That I Can Not Shake, Part 1
The original call back when there was snow on the ground was that Indiana would beat Ohio State, but lose at Michigan. Nick Marsh almost made the first part of that happen.
Now that it’s here, no, I can’t get there on Indiana losing to the Wolverines. However, it keeps getting lost in all the stuff about the Michigan offense, and Bryce Underwood, and Tommy Carr, that the defense is No. 4 in the nation overall and No. 1 in yards allowed per play.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Western Michigan game, but the Wolverines really are this close to being unbeaten in spite of the offense. Meanwhile, IU needed everything in the bag to get by Northwestern by six and Nebraska by three.
3. Sacramento State at Ball State
Line: Ball State -14.5
ATS Pick: Ball State
What did I say last week when Ohio over Sacramento State was my No. 1 pick of the week? Never, Ever, EVER Screw With a Streak.
The Bobcats were a 15-point favorite over the Hornets. Ohio won 48-7.
Bowling Green beat Sac State 38-10, UMass won 35-6, North Dakota State won by 21, and Fresno State won by 46.
Ball State isn’t very good. It finally beat an FBS team last week with a 32-31 win over Bowling Green, but until this train stops, keep on riding.
2. Texas Tech at Cincinnati
Line: Texas Tech -11.5
ATS Pick: Cincinnati
Upset Pick From Six Months Ago That I Can Not Shake, Part 2 combined with Double-Digit Home Dog.
After several months of believing this is where Texas Tech would lose its first game of the season, I can’t bail on it now. The Bearcats have the offense to pull this off, the defense brings the pressure, and it’s an early Saturday game with the potential to make a national early splash.
JC French IV is good enough to hold up against the Texas Tech defensive pressure, and much better at home. this is one of the key games to put the DDHD thing to the test.
1. West Virginia at TCU
Line: Point Total 57.5
ATS Pick: Over
No, you never, and I mean ever … EVER … screw with a streak.
Oh, this will end someday, but hopefully you’re so far ahead of the game with West Virginia overs that this is all gravy. What am I talking about?
Last week, West Virginia 45, Cincinnati 42 (The total was 63.5). The week before? The total was 61.5 – Arizona 52, West Virginia 31.
Week 5: Iowa State 45, West Virginia 42, on a 53.5-point total.
Week 4: Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24 on a 60.5-point total.
Week 3: West Virginia 38, Virginia 26 (the total was 51.5).
Week 2: West Virginia 52, UT Martin 7 (the total was 55.5)
Week 1: West Virginia 31, Coastal Carolina 24 (54.5)
Seven games, seven overs. So what’s the problem? TCU really, really doesn’t score.
Over the last three games, the Horned Frogs put up 17 against Baylor last week, ten against BYU, and 13 against UCF. (You’ve been warned.)
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.