As Macron visits Gulf, can France forge its own energy-for-security future?

President Emmanuel Macron has arrived in Bahrain during his tour of the Gulf region, as France continues to reel from a wave of violent protests.

The French leader is hoping to strengthen defence ties and secure oil and gas supplies amid major disruption to global fuel shipments arising from the US-Israel war on Iran. He has already visited Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as part of his three-day trip. His next stop is Qatar.

On the first day of Macron’s trip, France and Kuwait signed eight agreements and cooperation documents covering defence, artificial intelligence, investment and more.

Macron then met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on Monday. The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to advancing cooperation in energy, advanced technology and artificial intelligence (AI).

According to the French Foreign Ministry, the UAE is France’s biggest importer in the Gulf, with bilateral trade standing at 10.8 billion euros ($12.1bn) in 2025. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) [PDF], France supplied 18 percent of the UAE’s arms and defence imports in 2025 – the second highest after the United States, at 42 percent.

But this isn’t all about simple trade.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies, explained that Macron’s visit to the region is “symptomatic of a much larger geopolitical transformation”.

“We are witnessing the gradual emergence of a post-American Middle East in which Washington remains militarily powerful but increasingly struggles to exercise the political leadership it once enjoyed,” Krieg told Al Jazeera.

“Europe and the Gulf now face a remarkably similar strategic challenge. Both have become excessively dependent on American security decisions, and both are discovering that this dependence carries substantial economic and political costs.”

An urgent need for energy

Most pressing for Macron is finding solutions for strife at home.

France has been engulfed in protests and violence over a proposed government budget seeking tens of millions of euros in savings to public spending. Protesters angry about the crumbling state of French schools and planned pay freezes for public-sector workers have taken to the streets in increasingly violent protests, and authorities have imposed curfews in some cities.

More than half a million people gathered across France on Saturday as protesters demanded better education infrastructure and government steps to address the cost-of-living crisis. During weeks of protests, more than 2,500 people have been arrested, and demonstrations have descended into looting and arson in numerous locations.

A major issue is the spike in energy prices affecting all of Europe – much of it as a result of the Iran war – which has also fuelled growing public anger in France. Disruptions to the supply of refined oil products such as petrol and diesel caused by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz have caused up to 20 percent of French petrol stations to run out of both at various times since the conflict began.

Macron’s visit to the Gulf, accompanied by senior executives from France’s two biggest energy groups, TotalEnergies and Engie, comes as oil prices hover above $100 a barrel.

What France needs most urgently, therefore, is new suppliers. Those look to have been secured.

On Tuesday, the UAE committed to supplying 100,000 tonnes (746,000 barrels) of diesel per month to France for an unspecified duration, according to Bloomberg.

Bahrain has agreed to supply 100,000 tonnes of diesel per month for an unspecified duration, while Saudi Arabia will provide 95,000 tonnes in each of October and November, via TotalEnergies.

Cooperating on Gulf defence

Besides securing oil imports, however, France is also looking to boost its own exports, particularly of its defence equipment to the Gulf region, as the country suffers from record national debt – the highest level since the immediate aftermath of World War II, analysts say.

France has already strengthened its military partnership with Saudi Arabia, which has been battling the Iran-backed Houthi group from Yemen.

Last month, Macron said France would send troops and defence systems to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which is crucial for energy transport. Oil installations and airports in Saudi Arabia have come under attack from the Houthi group.

In late September, Macron said France would deploy what he termed “military means” to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Yanbu Red Sea oil terminal. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which carries oil from its eastern oilfields across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, has come under attack during the Iran conflict. It is the country’s main means of continuing to export oil while the critical Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. But Yemen’s Houthis have also been attacking Saudi ships in the Red Sea.

Macron stated in a TV interview that “soldiers, radars, defence systems” would be sent.

While he did not give specifics about volumes, it was a move described by French newspaper Le Monde as marking “a geopolitical shift”, as defence cooperation between the two countries has previously been “discreet, ambiguous and marked by extreme caution when it came to defining it”, the newspaper noted.

Last week, France’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Pascal Confavreux, said again that “operational elements” to defend Saudi oil facilities had been put into action, without specifying which “military means” had been sent.

Meanwhile, on Monday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot met with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, to review bilateral relations and discuss regional developments. Barrot also reaffirmed France’s solidarity with Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks.

Krieg assesses that France can offer Gulf states generally something that has become “increasingly valuable”: military capabilities not entirely dependent on the US.

“France can offer defence industrial cooperation, technology transfers, joint production, training and greater operational autonomy,” he said. “For countries such as the UAE and Qatar, this means progressively reducing their dependence on American weapons systems, spare parts, intelligence and political permissions.”

Involved – but not too involved

However, Krieg cautioned that the “central strategic dilemma” for France is likely to be whether increasing its involvement in the region could draw it into the ongoing conflict.

“Consider the protection of Saudi energy infrastructure against Houthi attacks,” he said. “French air defence systems intercepting missiles would directly undermine the Houthis’ military strategy. If French forces are subsequently targeted, Paris could face pressure to retaliate. What begins as a defensive deployment could gradually become an operational commitment with much wider implications.”

Krieg explained that the same is likely to apply to naval deployments around the Strait of Hormuz, adding that “escalation in one theatre can rapidly affect another”.

France’s ties with Iran have already been strained over tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions and political rhetoric against each other.

In July and August, France strongly condemned Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

In July, two French Embassy staff members were detained in Tehran and then declared personae non gratae. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the diplomats had “interfered in Iran’s internal affairs under the pretext of engaging with civil society”.

In August, French Foreign Minister Barrot expelled two Iranian diplomats in retaliation.

A new regional security architecture

Speaking at the Global Security Forum in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Tuesday, US Envoy Tom Barrack said that Washington is moving away from its traditional security-for-oil relationship with the Middle East and no longer seeks to dominate the region.

“The US no longer wants to own,” said Barrack, who serves as US ambassador to Turkiye and special envoy for Syria. “The bargain is not to control, but to not leave. We’re not leaving.”

Barrack acknowledged that, following months of Iranian strikes on their infrastructure, regional partners are increasingly recognising the limits of US involvement.

Across the Middle East itself, defence partnerships have grown. In August, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan signed a trilateral security pact, also known as the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. The pact has been activated amid Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.

But there may now be an opening for other external actors – such as France – to find more of a role.

Krieg said Gulf states do not believe France will replace the US, whose military and intelligence infrastructure remains “unmatched”. Rather, they want a “diversified network of security partnerships”.

“France is particularly attractive because it possesses genuine expeditionary capabilities and has demonstrated a willingness to defend Gulf partners without joining Washington’s offensive campaign against Iran,” he said. “Its military presence has consequently acquired greater political significance.”