BEIJING — ChangXin Memory Technologies, China's largest DRAM maker, has forecast a sevenfold jump in third-quarter revenue amid the artificial intelligence boom. The guidance follows the company's recent pledge to become the world's first to launch server DRAM built on next-generation technology this year, underscoring its accelerating push to close the gap with Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS). Wall Street analysts, however, increasingly argue that the recent plunge in global memory stocks is overdone, saying CXMT's technology remains unproven.
CXMT estimated third-quarter revenue at between 114.7 billion yuan and 119.7 billion yuan, or roughly 22.95 trillion to 23.95 trillion won, according to guidance issued on the 16th and reported on the 18th by Chinese financial outlet STCN. That represents growth of 589% to 619% from a year earlier and a 15% to 20% increase from the second quarter. The company said third-quarter net profit would swing into the black, reaching 53.395 billion yuan to 54.895 billion yuan, or about 10.6 trillion to 10.9 trillion won.
On the same day, CXMT Chairman Zhu Yiming proposed a share buyback of 1 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan, or roughly 200 billion to 400 billion won. Buybacks by companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market, which is dedicated to technology stocks, typically range from 200 million to 800 million yuan, suggesting management is signaling confidence in the company's future value.
Global technology giants are also courting CXMT, adding to the pressure on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Apple Chief Executive John Ternus recently described the memory shortage as an acute crisis and signaled the company was considering the use of Chinese-made products. Apple is already testing CXMT memory chips, according to industry sources. Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on the 15th that China would produce an enormous volume of memory chips, or RAM, in 2028. The post came after Musk complained on the 13th that while Micron had taken a reasonable stance on future memory prices, other suppliers had demanded unreasonably high prices — comments analysts read as a shot across the bow at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, now compounded by his reference to a potential Chinese production surge.
CXMT's announcement on the 9th that it would launch server DRAM using a next-generation 4F-squared structure this year also deepened concerns about the Korean companies' lead. The 4F-squared design shrinks the area of the cell, the smallest unit that stores data in a DRAM chip, cutting cell size by roughly 33% from the 6F-squared structure that currently dominates the industry and allowing more data to be stored on a chip of the same size. Samsung Electronics is working toward mass production using the structure in sub-10-nanometer DRAM by 2028. Following the announcement, shares of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix plunged 17.8% and 24.3%, respectively, in the week of Oct. 12 to 16.
Wall Street analysts, however, have pushed back, calling the reaction excessive. Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy wrote in a report that the market was placing too much weight on CXMT's structural announcement, arguing that given the company's process technology, its 4F-squared cell could be about 34% larger than rivals' existing 6F-squared products, leaving it a paper tiger. Mizuho Securities analyst Jordan Klein also noted that CXMT had not disclosed full specifications or verified yields, saying a year-end product unveiling could not be directly compared with Samsung Electronics' 2028 mass-production target.